16 Fantasy Football Draft Targets/Avoids - AFC/NFC South Edition

Will's top fantasy football draft targets or avoids in the AFC South and NFC South. His overvalued and undervalued fantasy draft picks for 2025, including Alvin Kamara.

When prepping for fantasy drafts, it’s helpful to take a look at each NFL team and evaluate how things have changed compared to the previous season. Whether due to player movement, coaching staff changes, or draft selections, no team will look the same year over year.

Team-by-team analysis allows for a deeper dive into players across all ranges of the draft board. Oftentimes, examining how the situation around a player has changed uncovers sleepers and helps to avoid busts.

Below you will find one player to target and one player to avoid for each team in both the AFC and NFC South. It’s important to remember that these are primarily value-based selections, so the target/avoid advice is based on draft cost more so than just the talent of the player. Let’s dive in.

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Atlanta Falcons

Target: Bijan Robinson

It might seem unnecessary to highlight Robinson as a target when he’s the fourth player off the board by Sleeper ADP, but consider this a case for taking him ahead of Saquon Barkley and Jahmyr Gibbs as the RB1.

Robinson scored at least 20 PPR fantasy points in five out of Atlanta’s final six games in 2024, and he should hit the ground running in 2025.

Among running backs with at least 100 carries last season, Robinson ranked first in rushing success rate (49.3%) and fourth in total yards after contact (862). Pro Football Focus gave him a rushing grade of 92.8 (second out of 47 qualified running backs) and a receiving grade of 82.2 (fourth out of 47 RBs).

Bijan Robinson is too smooth 🥶

(via @AtlantaFalcons)pic.twitter.com/uD29bA6eEm

— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) July 28, 2025

Atlanta also earned PFF’s highest team run-blocking grade last season and returns four out of five starting offensive linemen from 2024. An issue for Robinson in the past has been losing touches to backup running back Tyler Allgeier, but the Falcons shifted playing time towards Bijan down the stretch last season.

He played at least 70% of the team’s offensive snaps in eight out of their final nine games in 2024 and earned at least 17 carries in eight of those nine as well.

Entering his third season, Robinson is Atlanta’s best offensive weapon, and he’s ready to put this offense on his shoulders. He’s a do-it-all running back with the upside to be the best player in fantasy football in 2025.

Avoid: Michael Penix Jr.

With a Sleeper ADP of QB22, Penix isn’t exactly flying off draft boards. Even still, he has one distinct flaw in his profile that makes him a player to avoid, even at a reduced cost.

In five games (three starts) as a rookie in 2024, Penix logged a comically low total of 11 rushing yards. While three starts is a small sample, the lack of rushing tracks back to college for Penix, as he rushed for eight yards across 15 games in his final season at the University of Washington.

Penix is not a terrible athlete, but he’s torn his left ACL twice and also suffered significant injuries to both of his shoulders. He’s simply not looking to leave the pocket, as evidenced by his 3.54% scramble rate (32nd among qualified QBs) as a rookie.

While Penix has shown a willingness to push the ball downfield and could captain a competent passing offense this year, the complete lack of running ability puts a cap on his fantasy upside. It also makes him particularly dependent on passing volume to score fantasy points, which he’s unlikely to get.

Atlanta ranked 29th in pass-rate over expectation (-7.59%) last season and figures to be a run-heavy offense behind Robinson once again in 2025.

When looking for a QB2 in Superflex or a bye-week replacement in one-quarterback leagues, there are better options than Penix. He might have a few spike weeks due to touchdown variance, but by and large, Penix is going to be better as a real-life quarterback than in fantasy due to his style of play.

Carolina Panthers

Target: Bryce Young

Is Bryce Young going to be a superstar in the NFL? Probably not, but the former number one overall pick deserves more love than he’s currently getting from fantasy managers.

Young is currently being drafted as QB24 per Sleeper ADP, which is exactly where he finished in per-game PPR scoring last season. However, Young managed to be QB24 while posting 17.5 total PPR points through his first four games in 2024.

After Carolina’s Week 11 bye, Young averaged 21.1 PPR points per game over the team’s final seven games, which would have put him at QB6 throughout a full season.

Bryce Young's last three games of 2025 🔥

—10 Total TDs
—0 INTs
—612 passing yards pic.twitter.com/WZZABjK3Kx

— NFL (@NFL) July 25, 2025

Now in his second season working with Panthers head coach and play-caller Dave Canales, Young finally has a stable offensive infrastructure around him. Carolina has one of the league’s best offensive lines, and the team has used first-round picks on wide receivers in back-to-back drafts (Xavier Legette, Tetairoa McMillan).

Young also showed promising signs of improvement as a rusher in 2024, finishing with 249 rushing yards and six touchdowns. He finished 12th among all quarterbacks in rushing EPA (15.6) despite only playing in 14 games.

Counting on Young for QB1 production is probably a mistake. However, he’s an excellent value in Superflex leagues or as a bye-week replacement. The upside is still there for a 24-year-old quarterback who showed signs of significant growth from year one to year two.

Avoid: Xavier Legette

There are no Panthers who stand out as obviously negative values at their current draft cost and as the 67th wide receiver off the board by Sleeper ADP, Legette doesn’t bring much opportunity cost.

However, Legette’s rookie season was underwhelming in a few key areas, and other late-round dart throws offer a better chance of hitting.

Legette played in 16 games as a rookie in 2024 and managed just 49 catches for 497 yards and four touchdowns in a Panthers’ offense that was desperate for receiving talent. Among 91 receivers league-wide who ran at least 250 routes, Legette ranked 48th in target share (17%) and 67th in yards per route run (1.30).

Carolina used a first-round pick in this year’s draft on wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, and veteran Adam Thielen should be back to full strength after missing seven games in 2024 due to a hamstring injury.

The Panthers also use running back Chuba Hubbard (3.6 targets per game) in the passing game. Legette will have to produce to earn targets in 2025.

If Legette were more explosive with the ball in his hands, he might offer more upside, but he averaged just 2.29 yards after catch per reception as a rookie. He’s not a noteworthy threat down the field either, as evidenced by his middling 12.26-yard average depth of target.

Without a large target share or much big-play potential, Legette does not profile as an impactful fantasy receiver in 2025.

New Orleans Saints

Target: Alvin Kamara

There are plenty of reasons to be wary of every player on this Saints’ offense, which projects to be one of the NFL’s worst. However, New Orleans finished 24th in points and 21st in total yards per game last season, and Kamara still finished as RB5 in per-game PPR scoring.

Heading into his age-30 season, Kamara has not averaged over 4.2 yards per rush attempt since 2020. Even still, his work as a receiver gives him an incredibly stable PPR floor. Despite missing three games in 2024, he still finished second in the NFL in receptions by a running back (68) for the second consecutive season.

Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Saints, Kamara should see a heavy pass-game workload. He’s the ultimate check-down safety blanket, and designed touches for Kamara should allow Saints head coach Kellen Moore to scheme up some easy completions.

Alvin Kamara can still do this on top of being one of the best pass-catching backs in the league. Kellen Moore is going to have a field day with this guy. pic.twitter.com/jvlBRBjVjr

— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) July 24, 2025

It’s fair to expect some regression from Kamara given his age and the offensive environment around him, but he’s finished as a top-5 running back in per-game PPR scoring for two straight seasons and is currently being drafted as RB15 by Sleeper ADP.

Avoid: Chris Olave

2024 was a lost season for Olave, who was a second-round pick in many fantasy leagues heading into the year. Injuries limited him to just eight games, and he averaged just 9.6 PPR points per game in those appearances. His Sleeper ADP has dropped to WR32 as a result, but that’s still not low enough given the offense around him.

Whether it’s Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shough, or Jake Haener under center for the Saints this season, New Orleans projects to get bottom-5 quarterback play at best in 2025. In the 10 games that the now-retired Derek Carr missed last year, New Orleans averaged 13.3 points and 195 passing yards per game.

While Olave has had productive fantasy seasons in the past, he’s never been a huge touchdown scorer (10 receiving TDs in 39 career games). He needs a high volume of targets and receptions to score fantasy points.

The problem is that Olave fell behind teammate Rashid Shaheed in target share last season by a significant margin (24.4% to 18.8%). Even if that number comes up for Olave with improved health in 2025, he needs to be the clear target leader in this offense to be useful in fantasy.

Around where Olave is being drafted, there are receivers like Tetairoa McMillan, Jerry Jeudy, and Calvin Ridley who offer more upside. Fantasy managers should either avoid this Saints passing game altogether or wait to throw a dart at Shaheed, who comes off the board five rounds later than Olave on average.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Target: Mike Evans

Another year, another season of Mike Evans being underdrafted in fantasy. Yes, the 32-year-old is getting up there in age, but he’s one of the most consistent wide receivers in NFL history and plays in what projects to be a prolific passing offense.

Per Sleeper ADP, Evans is currently being drafted as the WR18 in PPR leagues. That’s strange, considering that Evans hasn’t finished worse than WR13 on a per-game basis in any of the last four seasons.

Among 141 qualified receivers in 2024, Evans finished ninth in yards-per-route-run (2.63) and fourth in receiving touchdowns (11).

There are some valid concerns about the target competition in Tampa Bay, as the Bucs have four quality receivers in Evans, Chris Godwin, Emeka Egbuka, and Jalen McMillan. However, Evans still led the team and finished 14th among NFL receivers overall in targets per route run (0.29) last season.

Even if managers want to price in some age and touchdown-rate related regression for Evans, he’s still being drafted at a great value as a mid-tier fantasy WR2.

He might not have overall WR1 upside, but Evans is an excellent bet to beat his draft-day price and be a consistent contributor that managers can set-and-forget in their weekly lineup.

Avoid: Chris Godwin

Let’s be clear: This has nothing to do with Godwin’s talent, as he was one of the best receivers in football last season before dislocating his ankle in Week 7. It has everything to do with his health outlook, as Godwin underwent a second procedure on his ankle in the spring, and his status for the start of the regular season is uncertain.

Chris Godwin still is not practicing. But at least he’s here watching. #Bucs pic.twitter.com/JLrgSv4vAt

— Matt Matera (@matty4_matera) July 28, 2025

It was a bit surprising this past April when the Buccaneers used a first-round pick on Ohio State wide receiver Egbuka despite already rostering Godwin, Evans, and Jalen McMillan.

Given the news that Godwin has required two surgeries to repair his injured left ankle, Egbuka’s selection makes more sense. The rookie has a very similar profile to Godwin as an inside receiver and could be a natural replacement.

The last time Godwin had a significant lower-body injury was 2021, when he tore his ACL and MCL in Week 15. Coming off that knee injury in 2022, Godwin set career lows in yards per target (7.2) and yards per reception (9.8).

Currently holding an ADP on Sleeper of WR35, the risk that Godwin could see a reduced workload due to injury concerns and/or target competition in Tampa Bay is not being weighted heavily enough.

Houston Texans

Target: Christian Kirk

It’s easy to forget since he missed nine games due to a torn ACL, but Stefon Diggs was the WR18 in per-game PPR scoring while working from the slot in Houston through the first eight weeks of the season. Stepping into that slot role in 2025 is Christian Kirk, who is currently being drafted as WR59, according to Sleeper ADP.

Welcome to Houston Christian Kirk! Fills the slot wr need and SPEED. pic.twitter.com/FtMhdKDVqe

— big ounce (@_bigounce) March 6, 2025

In 2023, Kirk averaged 2.27 yards per route run, 18th out of 143 qualified wide receivers. He’s only 28 years old, so there’s reason to think he can regain his old form with a fresh start in Houston.

Kirk could get pushed for playing time in the slot by rookie third-round pick Jaylin Noel, but the veteran should be able to lock down the job as long as he’s healthy through the preseason.

The best argument for drafting Kirk is the value. Currently going as a 12th-round pick in 12-team drafts, Kirk is an easy player to stash as proven wide receiver depth who provides a solid floor on any given week.

Avoid: C.J. Stroud

After an electric rookie season in 2023, where he finished as the QB9 in per-game PPR scoring, Stroud tumbled to QB27 per-game with a disappointing sophomore campaign in 2024. His draft-day price has come down to QB15 per Sleeper ADP, but that’s still not low enough to make him a good value in re-draft leagues.

In 32 career NFL games, Stroud has rushed for just 400 yards and three touchdowns. He’s entirely reliant on his arm to score fantasy points, which is a volatile way to live for a fantasy quarterback.

While Stroud has the talent to be a prolific passer, there are significant questions surrounding the viability of Houston’s aerial attack. In 2024, the Texans ranked 22nd in EPA per pass attempt (-0.04), and Stroud ranked 23rd among qualified quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt (7.01).

Houston overhauled their offensive line from the group that allowed Stroud to be pressured at the highest rate in the league in 2024, but it remains an unproven and uninspiring unit.

Between Houston’s offensive uncertainty and Stroud’s inability to score points as a rusher, there’s just not enough fantasy upside to target him in drafts.

Indianapolis Colts

Target: Michael Pittman Jr.

There’s no question that Michael Pittman Jr. was being overdrafted heading into 2024, and he disappointed by delivering his worst numbers since his rookie season. However, he’s currently coming off the board as WR51 via Sleeper ADP, which means the pendulum has swung too far and he now represents a draft-day value.

Here are the PPR per-game finishes for Pittman over the last four seasons: WR27, WR22, WR13, WR46. While concerning, his 2024 season looks like a clear outlier in context. I

It’s worth remembering that Pittman played 16 games despite suffering a fracture in his lower back in training camp, which almost certainly affected his performance.

There are environmental factors in Indianapolis that have changed since the beginning of Pittman’s career. Fellow receiver Josh Downs emerged as the team’s leader in target share in 2024, and the Colts used a first-round pick on tight end Tyler Warren in the 2025 draft.

Indy’s quarterback situation is one of the shakiest in the league, as neither Daniel Jones nor Anthony Richardson Sr. projects to lead a top-flight passing attack.

However, the Colts' pass game can’t be much worse than it was in 2024, when it finished 27th in passing yards and 25th in passing touchdowns. Even with a significant back injury, Pittman still finished 27th among 141 qualified receivers in target share (24.3%) last season and 57th in yards-per-route-run (1.78).

Elite numbers? No. But Pittman caught at least 88 passes each season from 2021-2023, and he should be closer to that mark in 2025 than the 69 he caught in 2024. He’s got WR3/flex upside, and he’s currently being drafted as a WR5.

Avoid: Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor is a talented running back, and he’s been a fantasy monster in the past, finishing as the RB1 overall back in 2021. However, there are question marks with the offense around him as well as his health, consistency, and pass-catching ability.

In the three years since that standout 2021 season, Taylor has missed a combined 16 games, and he’s found himself on the Colts' injury report with a recurring ankle issue five separate times throughout his career.

He’s cracked 300 carries just twice in his career, which is an issue because he needs volume as a rusher to score fantasy points.

Jonathan Taylor in 2021: 2,171 total yards, 20 TDs (RB1)

Since then:
-2022: Grade 2 ankle sprain Week 4, suffered season-ending high ankle sprain Week 15
-2023: Started year on IR with back (contract?) injury, torn thumb ligament Week 12
-2024: Grade 3 high ankle sprain Week 4

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 12, 2025

Taylor has averaged 18.5 catches per season over the last two years, and Pro Football Focus gave him a 36.9 receiving grade for his work in 2024, 46th out of 47 qualified running backs.

Taylor finished as the RB7 in per-game PPR scoring in 2024, but he scored 38% of his total PPR points in the final three weeks of the season. Between Weeks 1-15, Taylor missed three games and had four more where he scored under 11 PPR points.

Because he does not catch passes, Taylor is reliant on touchdowns and rushing volume, both of which are highly volatile on a week-to-week basis.

It’d be one thing if Indianapolis were projected to be a high-scoring offense in 2025, but with Daniel Jones and Richardson at quarterback, that’s unlikely.

In the 10 games that Richardson started and finished in 2024, Indianapolis averaged 20.4 points per game, which would have ranked 21st in the NFL throughout a full season. Jones’ New York Giants averaged 15.6 points per game in his 10 starts, which would have ranked 31st.

Taylor’s profile is just too risky to rely on him as an RB1 in PPR leagues, which is where he’s being drafted by Sleeper ADP. He’s a better bet in standard-scoring leagues or in best ball, where his week-to-week volatility is less of an issue.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Target: Brian Thomas Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr. is being drafted as WR8 per Sleeper ADP, so this recommendation is less about draft value and more about upside. Thomas has a legitimate chance to finish as the number one wide receiver in fantasy this season, making him a clear target in the first or second round turn of drafts.

Thomas was one of the best receivers in the NFL as a rookie in 2024. Among receivers who ran at least 250 routes, he finished sixth in yards per route run (2.68), tied for fifth in touchdowns (10), and fourth in YAC (562).

Thomas finished 12th in per-game PPR scoring for the season, averaging 16.7 PPR points per week. However, that average shot up to 22.9 PPR points per game over the final six weeks of the season - and that was with a backup quarterback in Mac Jones throwing him the football.

Brian Thomas Jr. became the 4th ROOKIE Wide Receiver in NFL History to Record 1,200+ Yards and 10+ TD’s..

The others?

➖Randy Moss
➖Ja’Marr Chase
➖Odell Beckham Jr.

..Brian Thomas Jr. accomplished this with Mac Jones playing 10 Games

WR1 Overall Upside in 2025 pic.twitter.com/WfsrP72EMf

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) July 16, 2025

The offensive infrastructure around Thomas should be significantly improved this year with Liam Coen taking over play-calling duties from Doug Pederson, and Trevor Lawrence back to full health after missing seven games in 2024.

In Coen’s first year as their play caller last season, the Buccaneers went from 18th to third in passing yards, eighth to second in passing touchdowns, and 28th to third in overall offensive success rate.

The Jags finished 2024 ranked 24th in passing yards and 28th in passing touchdowns. If they can make even marginal improvements as an offense, Thomas will be in a prime position to put up a monster fantasy season.

Avoid: Travis Etienne

By Sleeper ADP, Travis Etienne is currently being drafted in the eighth round as RB33. He was RB38 in per-game PPR scoring last season, and there’s reason to think his role in Jacksonville’s offense is shrinking heading into 2025.

Etienne was one of the NFL’s least efficient rushers in 2024. Among 50 players with 100 rushes, Etienne finished 46th in EPA per rush (-0.18) and 45th in yards per attempt (3.72). He also earned significantly fewer red zone carries (21) than fellow Jaguars running back Tank Bigsby (35).

Bigsby was better than Etienne by measure of yards per carry (4.56 to 3.72) and yards after contact (565 to 381). Bigsby was also the better red zone back, averaging 0.13 EPA per rush in the red zone compared to -0.47 EPA per rush for Etienne.

As an above-average pass catcher who struggles with consistency as a rusher, Etienne strikes a very similar profile to Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White.

That’s relevant because the new Jaguars head coach is Coen, who shifted touches away from White last season when Coen was the play caller in Tampa Bay.

While I expect Etienne to handle third-down work, don’t be surprised when Bigsby takes over as the Jaguars’ leading rusher on early downs and in the red zone. Given that Etienne’s Sleeper ADP is four rounds higher than Bigsby’s, he is a player to fade in 2025.

Tennessee Titans

Target: Calvin Ridley

It’s uncommon that fantasy managers have a chance to draft an offense’s unquestioned number one receiving target in round seven, but that’s been the case so far with Ridley. As the 36th wide receiver off the board by Sleeper ADP, Ridley represents tremendous value in re-draft leagues.

Ridley’s season-long numbers from 2024 are uninspiring (64 catches, 1,017 receiving yards, four touchdowns). However, he was working in an offense quarterbacked by Will Levis and Mason Rudolph that finished 30th in EPA per pass attempt (-0.14).

While Titans rookie QB Cam Ward may not be a world-beater right away, the number one overall pick in the 2025 draft can bring a level of respectability that Tennessee’s passing game simply did not have in 2024.

Taking a look under the hood at Ridley’s performance in 2024, he was quietly very solid. Among 141 qualified receivers, Ridley finished 37th in yards per route run (1.99).

His main issue for fantasy was an abnormally low touchdown total (four). In the four seasons where Ridley has played at least 15 games, 2024 is the only year that he’s scored fewer than eight times.

With some regression to the mean in the touchdown department and improved quarterback play, Ridley could easily finish as a WR2 on a per-game basis in 2025. As long as he keeps being treated like a low-end WR3 by drafters, Ridley is an obvious player to target.

Avoid: Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard quietly posted a solid fantasy season in 2024, finishing as the RB22 in per-game PPR scoring. However, there’s reason to believe he will lose touches to Titans running back Tyjae Spears in 2025, which makes Pollard a regression candidate this year.

In the 16 games he played last season, Pollard averaged 12.5 PPR points per game. However, he averaged 15.9 points per game in the four games that Spears missed, and just 11.4 in the 12 games where the two backs shared the field.

Spears also finished the season stronger, averaging 20.7 PPR points over his final three games played, compared to 7.6 PPR points in the final three for Pollard.

Titans head coach Brian Callahan has been vocal this offseason about wanting to split touches between Pollard and Spears more evenly. That could be bad news for Pollard, particularly because Spears was the more efficient red zone rusher last season.

Titans HC Brian Callahan on Tony Pollard’s ideal workload in 2025 pic.twitter.com/WgP5lixcaU

— AtoZ Sports Nashville (@AtoZSports) May 20, 2025

Spears averaged 0.38 EPA per rush in the red zone, compared to 0.02 EPA/rush for Pollard. Spears also scored four touchdowns on 12 red zone rushes, compared to three touchdowns on 33 red zone rushes for Pollard.

Tennessee finished 29th in both offensive success rate and team EPA per rush attempt in 2024. While they could be better with Cam Ward under center in 2025, no one should be expecting the Titans to light up the scoreboard every week.

That makes volume very important for Pollard to score fantasy points, and that might not be there for him this season.

Pollard’s Sleeper ADP is RB28, which is not a terrible value in a vacuum. However, there’s a three-round difference between where Pollard is being drafted and where Spears comes off the board, which is too large a gap.

For those interested in investing in the Titans' backfield, passing on Pollard and waiting for Spears is the way to go.

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