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Will the Chicago Bears trade the 2023 #1 overall pick? Which teams could try to trade into the top spot? Read the outlook here.
As we progress through the NFL combine, it seems more likely that the Chicago Bears will trade the #1 overall pick. The idea has been tossed around but picked up steam when Adam Schefter reported that multiple teams had approached the Bears about trading the pick.
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Bears GM Ryan Poles confirmed in his press conference that they had always leaned that way due to the development of Justin Fields.
Trading this pick would allow the Bears to recoup some draft capital and add more depth to a team with weaknesses in several areas. The two QBs at the top of most draft boards are Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. There is also a team picking #2 in the Houston Texans who are ready to find a franchise QB.
The presence of the Texans gives the Bears more leverage from their position, as teams will want to leapfrog the Texans to ensure they get the #1 QB on their board. This gives the Bears many options to trade with inside the top 10, so let’s examine potential trade-back scenarios with QB-needy teams.
Scenario 1: Trade Back to #2 With the Houston Texans
The Bears could get the best of both worlds with this move, bringing in additional draft value while securing the #1 player on their draft board. The question is, how much draft capital would the Texans be willing to part ways with to move up just one spot?
The quarterback situation forces them to trade more than most teams would in this type of scenario. But the #2 pick holds a lot of value in this trade and could lead to the Texans getting a better price than any other team on this list. A good reference point would be when the Bears traded up in the 2017 draft from #3 to #2 with the San Francisco 49ers to obtain the services of Patri....whoops my bad, Mitch Tribusky.
Scenario 1B: Trade From #2 to #8 With the Atlanta Falcons
There will still be QB-needy teams that want to get ahead of the Indianapolis Colts at #4. The Falcons recently cut Marcus Mariota and confirmed they want to get back into the QB market.
In this scenario, the Bears could secure a future first-round pick and more in addition to the compensation the Texans are willing to give to move up one spot. In addition to those picks, they would remain in the top 10 and obtain an elite-level prospect.
Scenario 2: Trade Back to #4 With the Indianapolis Colts
Trading with the Colts gives Chicago another prime opportunity to get the best or second-best player on their draft board. Since the Colts need to jump Houston, they may have to be willing to part with far more draft compensation. Both teams playing in the same division also gives the Bears additional leverage within this context.
The Colts have been active on the veteran QB market since Andrew Luck retired, but it appears that Indy is looking to the future for their next attempt to replace Luck. GM Chris Ballard may be content with sitting on the fourth pick, but if he wants to secure Indy's next franchise QB, he may need to pony up.
Scenario 3: Trade Back to #9 with the Carolina Panthers
Trading back to #9 would be a far drop from the #1 pick, but Carolina can make this work in a few ways. They would likely need to part with a 2024 first-round pick and another second or third-round pick. As Ryan Poles mentioned in his press conference, the Bears may also want a player back in this deal.
The Panthers feature a young defensive core that includes players such as Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Jeremy Chinn, and Jaycee Horn. It makes sense for the Bears to attempt to acquire one of these players if the Panthers are truly trying to make the jump for a franchise QB.
Whichever way they decide to go, the Bears are in a prime position to make a splash trade as they build around Justin Fields.
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