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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 13 Thursday Night Football matchups between the Saints and Cowboys, and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 13 with the New Orleans Saints hosting the Dallas Cowboys.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys: More or Less Contest
- Tony Pollard MORE than 50.5 rushing yards
- Taysom Hill LESS than 49.5 rushing yards
Calling for Tony Pollard to hit this mark is largely relying on a couple of different factors. For one, the Cowboys know that Ezekiel Elliott is dealing with a knee injury. Owner Jerry Jones states that Zeke will see a full workload, but there is no guarantee. Additionally, with the effectiveness of Pollard, they don’t have to force Zeke out there. Pollard has hit this mark in five games this season, and he does it without seeing a hefty workload on a weekly basis. He could see an increased workload in a game that figures to be tight and low scoring with the team trying to preserve Zeke.
This is the first game this season where Taysom Hill will be the full-time starting quarterback, but I still don’t have faith that he’s going to run all over this Dallas defense. Hill’s season-high is 32 rushing yards, and he’s been held under 20 rushing yards in five of his seven outings. Looking back to last season when Hill was the full-time starter, he only hit this mark in one of his four games.
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New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys: More or Less Contest
- CeeDee Lamb MORE than 74.5 receiving yards
- Mark Ingram II MORE than 34.5 rushing yards
Top wideout Amari Cooper is still out for this game, and that will give CeeDee Lamb the WR1 job for the week. Outside of Week 11 against the Kansas City Chiefs when he left the game early, Lamb has hit this mark in six of his nine games, including three different games where he’s gone over the 100-yard mark. The Saints are first against the run and 13th against the pass by DVOA metrics, so the Cowboys will likely need to throw the ball a bit. All it takes for Lamb is one big play to hit this mark.
This is reliant on the idea that Alvin Kamara remains banged up. He may play in this game, but even if he does, he’s unlikely to be 100 percent. In four games since returning to the Saints, Ingram has gone over 34.5 rushing yards in three of those four games, and he came up just eight yards short on only six carries against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are one of the league’s best run defenses. If Ingram is active in this game, this mark is well within his reach against Dallas, who ranks 18th against the run.
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New Orleans Saints vs Dallas Cowboys: Rapid Fire Contest
- Taysom Hill +90.5 passing yards vs Dak Prescott & Ezekiel Elliott +4.5 rushing yards vs Alvin Kamara
When Taysom is under center, the Saints run the ball and keep the score low. That allows them to extend drives and keep the opposing offenses off of the field. Hill had 220 or more yards in three of his four games as a starter last year, and the lone outlier game was against the Denver Broncos who had Kendall Hinton under center. Dak can air it out, but he rarely does that in games that aren’t shootouts, which this one doesn’t figure to be. Zeke vs Kamara is entirely based on the idea that the Saints aren’t going to feature Kamara heavily in the running game. With Taysom and Ingram in the backfield, they can allow him to work more in the receiving game, where they don’t have a ton of weapons as things currently stand.
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