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Spring Training is flying and we're off to the races with another year of the FSWA-award-nominated Expected Draft Values (EDV) series, where we look at historical data to identify both overvalued and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered.
It's time to head into the vast outfield and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.
Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning January into February, their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.
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How Expected Draft Values (EDV) Help You Win
Expected Draft Values (EDV) try to provide concrete answers to those who say, “Player X is a great value at that ADP.” We've taken historical data and come up with a data set that reliably shows stat lines along the ADP totem pole, with players falling into seven cohorts: 1) HR+BA+SB 2) HR+BA, 3) SB+HR, 4) SB+BA, 5) HR, 6) SB, 7) BA.
We all know players don't fall neatly into one bucket of production, but we can read between the lines and apply the appropriate context if necessary. EDV is not some definitive practice, just as projections are an imperfect science, but it helps sharpen the tools in your kit on draft day. Now, let's move along.
Top Outfield Tiers
It isn’t third base, but the outfield is surprisingly top-heavy in 2023. Twitter is alight with Underdog touts pushing OF way up. We aren’t all tournament-driven, but OFs also constitute four of the top six NFBC picks.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is first up and checks in with immense HR+SB upside, sporting a +12 in that category against EDV despite qualifying for its highest point. Aaron Judge boasts such power with modest speed and a healthy average to where he remains a top EDV buy, qualifying for the rarified triple cohort (BA+HR+SB). I’d feel wonderful with either and do a happy dance with a top-two pick.
I won't split hairs over the superstars because I understand that OF is tighter in '23 and they're all worthy cornerstones. Julio Rodriguez brings the volatility of a youngster who can carry all offensive categories so he settles in behind Acuna and Judge, but EDV still says it's a fine pick. Kyle Tucker needs to shake and bake into the top half of Houston's order to unlock the next level, but consistent results are OK here.
Yordan Alvarez now joins Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Trout in the "injury question" bucket. They're true game-breakers when they make it onto the field, but Alvarez's hand is already sore after an entire offseason. How is that going to hold up over a full 162-game season? I've seen him going behind Juan Soto and Mookie Betts now, with good reason. He's still not swinging a bat early a week after the hand report dropped on Feb. 21:
Yordan Alvarez is still not swinging a bat, Dusty Baker said.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) February 26, 2023
A rebounding average for Soto would make him a slam dunk, but even a lesser AVG still sees his slot in San Diego's order making good on the ADP. Betts reported to Driveline and may hold onto his power gains shown in '22, but the real story is potentially moving off from the leadoff role. That would help his R+RBI balance, while hopefully not burying him on the basepaths behind others.
Mid-Round Outfield Tier
While it is all negative values down toward the 60th pick, I once again acknowledge youngsters are typically undersold by projections. We hit the green again starting with Adolis Garcia and Kyle Schwarber.
Garcia’s average might sting but he’s nearly +10 in HR+SB with a hefty RBI profit margin as the heart of Texas’ order is potent. And Schwarber’s power better reflects the third round as many are drooling over his not facing an overhauled shift.
Corbin Carroll should edge his EDV as a speedster. Those looking for some well-rounded pop have the system’s blessing to pick Teoscar Hernandez and Eloy Jimenez. Jimenez does send up injury worries but Starling Marte has active ones to sweat as he recovers from core surgery.
EDV is also a fan of Tyler O'Neill, Byron Buxton, Seiya Suzuki, Jake McCarthy, Amed Rosario, and Steven Kwan. O'Neill is cutting some muscle in an attempt to stay healthy. Luckily, he has plenty to spare. No one will comfortable with Buxton but his peak is undeniably tantalizing.
Suzuki’s batting average could drop 20 points below his projected .272 mark and still meet his EDV. But now we're sweating an oblique issue, stay tuned. McCarthy went 23-of-26 on steal attempts in just 99 games and now the bases get bigger? Neat. Rosario toes the EDV’s HR+SB line but crushes the R+RBI line by ~30 thanks to his batting second.
Kwan is the highlight as a speed-average weapon with a hefty run total thanks to his leadoff slot. He had the second-best strikeout rate among all qualified hitters as a rookie alongside a walk rate near 10%. He gets on base. Despite 19 steals in 147 games and the rule changes benefitting runners, most systems give him between 12-16 for ‘23. I’ll take the over.
38 days until Guardians Opening Day.
#38 Steven Kwan.
Only Steven Kwan, Kenny Lofton, and Ichrio Suzuki have achieved ALL of the below stats as a rookie in the last 100 years:
160+ Hits
5.0+ WAR
15+ Stolen Bases
60 Strikeouts or Fewer— Cleveland Stats (@CLE_STATS) February 20, 2023
Other notable names that pop and/or break the mold are a pair of Yankees in Giancarlo Stanton (health?) and Harrison Bader (mouthguard?). We know the risk-reward with Stanton, but Bader’s five home runs in nine postseason games with his jaw/body tension channeled efficiently. And then Brandon Nimmo and Masataka Yoshida are undervalued avenues toward the hefty runs atop the order.
Okay, I'm cutting the text body of this short to get to the table because it is much larger than the other (infield) positions. Scroll and enjoy!
Top 75 Outfield vs. EDV - Full Data Table
We've got players, the cohort they qualify for (if applicable), their HR+SB projection against what EDV demands, same with their R+RBI, a similar batting average score, and notes. Blanks follow those who didn't qualify for a cohort.
| Player | ADP | Cohort | HR+SB v. EDV |
R+RBI v. EDV |
AVG | Notes |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | 2.78 | HR+SB | 12 | -18 | 3 | Massive power+speed threat w/ leadoff volume, RBI only "weakness" |
| Aaron Judge | 3.7 | BA+HR+SB | -2 | 5 | -5.3 | Can't project another .310+ BA but it's in his range, no complaints |
| Julio Rodriguez | 4.1 | HR+SB | 5 | -23 | 4.5 | Will he encounter any sophomore slump? Ceiling is worth the top-5 ADP |
| Kyle Tucker | 6.69 | HR+SB | 1 | -21 | 3 | Hurt by lower batting slot for R+RBI but HR+SB tools remain tantalizing |
| Yordan Alvarez | 9.66 | BA+HR | -1.5 | -18.7 | -2.6 | Early hand soreness a bit frightful, first one without speed element |
| Juan Soto | 10.41 | BA+SB | 7 | 26 | -3.3 | .249 BABIP in '22 (career .309), xwOBA still top 1% of MLB. Trust |
| Mookie Betts | 11.59 | HR+SB | -8 | -6 | 4.5 | Driveline client this offseason, must keep '22 power surge going |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 17.62 | BA+HR+SB | 17.5 | -11.3 | -2.7 | Riskiest high-round pick, HR+SB projection alone underscores reward |
| Mike Trout | 19.95 | BA+HR | 4.5 | -3.7 | -4.5 | Top-tier power, healthy AVG, no SB but need back to stay healthy |
| Michael Harris II | 27.81 | BA+HR+SB | 3.9 | 5.8 | -3.5 | Flashy tools, power pace will regress, will he grab 2nd spot in order? |
| Randy Arozarena | 37.33 | HR+SB | 9.4 | -12.3 | -0.6 | Speed hit next gear in '22, lower K% too. Growing lineup may help R+RBI |
| Daulton Varsho | 37.35 | You're playing him at catcher 99.99% of the time anyway | ||||
| Luis Robert | 47.17 | BA+HR+SB | 3.4 | -0.2 | -3.1 | Offseason focused on conditioning/durability, will it pay off? |
| Cedric Mullins II | 49.66 | HR+SB | 14.2 | -12.8 | -0.1 | Great HR+SB outlook due to wheels, Camden tough on overall R+RBI opps |
| Kyle Schwarber | 51.54 | HR | 9.6 | 10.3 | -4.9 | Enormous pop with sneaky speed, AVG bump w/o shift despite FB ways? |
| Adolis Garcia | 56.83 | HR+SB | 11.5 | 16.9 | -5.3 | EDV says he's a good buy, understand range of outcomes is wider |
| Teoscar Hernandez | 71.45 | HR | 0.2 | -1.7 | 1.5 | ADP & EDV sync up in his new home |
| Eloy Jimenez | 71.66 | HR | -4.5 | -5 | 5.4 | Want power bat to have more HR, R+RBI juice ideally |
| Corbin Carroll | 74.34 | SB | 4.5 | 12.9 | 1.1 | Still a good buy despite some recent rise in ADP |
| George Springer | 77.26 | HR+SB | 0.9 | 6.5 | 2.9 | Another health risk but TOR environment a nice one to buy into |
| Starling Marte | 80.43 | BA+SB | 4.2 | 0.1 | -2.6 | May be limited early after offseason surgery on both groins, OK buy at risk |
| Bryan Reynolds | 86.03 | HR | -3.8 | -20.8 | 5.4 | PIT will struggle to meet R+RBI projections anywhere, nice AVG base |
| Byron Buxton | 94.97 | HR+SB | -1.8 | 2.9 | 0.3 | Medical worries baked into cost, wouldn't pair with Robert and/or Springer! |
| MJ Melendez | 97.75 | Again, you're playing him at catcher 99.99% of the time anyway | ||||
| Tyler O'Neill | 100.34 | HR+SB | 7.5 | 6.5 | -0.1 | Tried to lay off the weights for durability, still looks like Wolverine to me |
| Seiya Suzuki | 105.38 | HR+SB | 1.1 | 15 | 5.3 | Undergoing MRI for oblique but assuming OK: Great buy, big target |
| Jake McCarthy | 113.96 | SB | 9.5 | 12.2 | 5 | If one went lead-footed power early then here's an excellent buy |
| Taylor Ward | 118.28 | HR+SB | -4.7 | 7.3 | 5.2 | Leading off is key, how much of pre-wall collision small sample was real? |
| Steven Kwan | 118.61 | BA+SB | 0.8 | 32.7 | -1.3 | Another bat with volume value due to leadoff role |
| Christian Yelich | 123.48 | SB | -0.4 | 36.6 | 2.1 | Max EV still elite, but launch angle/barrel rates back to square one |
| Amed Rosario | 124.14 | SB | -6.5 | 27.8 | 5.9 | Double-digit HR, SB, and .280+ AVG in last 3 full seasons (no '20, duh) |
| Nick Castellanos | 126.17 | First OF-only bat to not qualify for a cohort, haven't been buying | ||||
| Kris Bryant | 126.34 | HR | -1.6 | -5.3 | 7.3 | Should provide solid AVG from Coors but overall lineup ceiling is low |
| Anthony Santander | 128.86 | HR | -2.6 | 13.9 | -1.9 | More walks, fewer Ks, hit well at Camden, solid median-outcome buy |
| Andrew Vaughn | 138.67 | Second bat not to qualify, though 1B/OF eligibility helps | ||||
| Giancarlo Stanton | 139.49 | HR | 5.6 | 24.1 | 0.4 | Mammoth upside if health holds, even ugly AVG still a buy per EDV |
| Hunter Renfroe | 144.9 | HR | -2.1 | -2.1 | 1.4 | Close to par with EDV, if LAA lineup stays on field then R+RBI could soar |
| Ian Happ | 152.67 | HR+SB | -3.3 | 7.2 | 2.2 | More contact, more pulling, fewer Ks for '22 success. Well-rounded option |
| Brandon Nimmo | 167.29 | If there was a Runs Cohort, NYM's leadoff man would be in it. | ||||
| Bryce Harper | 168.34 | If you haven't taken any risks thus far then be my guest | ||||
| Mitch Haniger | 170.78 | Healthy Haniger can maul the ball but SF isn't kind to bats | ||||
| Thairo Estrada | 170.87 | SB | 3.9 | 22.1 | 1.9 | Probably has 2B/SS/OF elig. with plus projections across the board |
| Harrison Bader | 172.56 | HR+SB | 2.7 | -16.5 | 4.4 | If you buy the mouthguard effect & postseason surge then price is good |
| Jeff McNeil | 175.97 | BA | 3.6 | 13.6 | -1.7 | BA w/ little category juice but NYM R+RBI opps boost stock |
| Lars Nootbaar | 182.4 | Great eye, high-end power. Consistent enough for a breakout? | ||||
| Cody Bellinger | 183.34 | HR+SB | -4.3 | -12.5 | -1.4 | If you think MVP form returns then mobilize, projections aren't buying in |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 183.85 | Only he and Luis Robert had 14%+ SwStr% yet K% under 20% | ||||
| Whit Merrifield | 185.03 | SB | 0.3 | 21.1 | 3.6 | Good dart if lacking speed later on w/ TOR aggression comments |
| Joey Meneses | 192.05 | HR | 0 | 0.7 | 5.9 | Small-sample basis but can drop for waiver if he flops |
| Alex Verdugo | 197.77 | BA | 8.8 | 55.8 | -5 | Premier target for AVG, should rebound career-worst 6.5% HR/FB in '22 |
| Riley Greene | 198.69 | New Comerica dimensions will help, please get K% down from ~30% | ||||
| Seth Brown | 205 | HR | 3.6 | -10.2 | -3.6 | 25-HR pop with double-digit steals possible works even with AVG hit |
| Masataka Yoshida | 205.63 | BA+HR | 2 | 25.3 | -3.6 | ADP has not caught up to projections, healthy buy margin w/ Fenway |
| Andrew Benintendi | 214.52 | Better discipline '22 but barrel rate slipped. Can we get 150 games? | ||||
| Ramon Laureano | 216.47 | HR+SB | -3.3 | -18.5 | 0.1 | R+RBI suffers on OAK but contributes pop & speed after pick 200 |
| Gavin Lux | 222.04 | Scary spring knee injury may have ended his 2023, holding breath | ||||
| Josh Naylor | 223.81 | |||||
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 229.14 | |||||
| Michael Conforto | 235 | |||||
| Bryan De La Cruz | 237.57 | |||||
| Joc Pederson | 238.36 | |||||
| Wil Myers | 243.76 | Some think he's washed, others also think it but trust GABP more | ||||
| Randal Grichuk | 246.03 | |||||
| Miguel Vargas | 249.36 | Job security likely increases if Gavin Lux's knee injury proves serious | ||||
| Christopher Morel | 249.83 | SB | 0.8 | -0.4 | -1 | Fine with later dart, see if he can win adjustment battles thru '23 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 253.75 | SB | 13 | -24.4 | 0.6 | Those willing to eat power categories in need of speed must click here |
| Trey Mancini | 260.39 | |||||
| Jesse Winker | 260.66 | |||||
| Austin Meadows | 268.16 | |||||
| Austin Hays | 274.21 | |||||
| Eric Haase | 282.78 | |||||
| Nick Gordon | 286.76 | |||||
| Lane Thomas | 288.87 | |||||
| Jorge Soler | 294.22 | HR | -4.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | Beginning to rise more, but everyday power role works even in MIA park |
| Charlie Blackmon | 296.06 |
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