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A couple of weeks ago our Joey Pollizze wrote an article on quarterback ADP risers and fallers based on QBs who were on the move, but today I'm here to write about QBs who had their ADPs change due to their team's moves in free agency.
Some teams had fantastic offseasons that catapulted them into instant contention, while other teams had terrible offseasons that hurt their chances to contend. The NFL is as talented as ever now, and just a few bad moves can completely change the course of a team and a quarterback's fantasy outlook.
Which quarterbacks saw their ADP rise or fall this offseason based on their own teams' decisions? Let's find out.
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Quarterback ADP Risers
C.J. Stroud came in and immediately dominated the NFL last season. No one expected much from the Texans, but Stroud led them to the AFC South title and even won a playoff game.
Last season Stroud had a bunch of great weapons like Nico Collins and Tank Dell. But now that the team has added Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, we can expect Stroud to go nuclear and even approach overall QB1 status and compete for the 2024 NFL MVP award.
Micah Parsons: “You ain’t never looked a killer in his eyes before.”
C.J. Stroud: “You’re sitting on the couch with one.” 😳 pic.twitter.com/rmW2IWQdYz
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 26, 2024
Stroud now has Diggs, Collins, Dell, Mixon, Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, and Robert Woods at his disposal, and with this many weapons, he will have no problem moving the ball downfield.
The Texans were also a very respectable defense in 2023 and we can expect them to get even better in 2024, which will give Stroud even more possessions to rack up yardage.
From Week 9 to Week 13, Stroud averaged a ridiculous 348 yards per game, and while that average is unsustainable, there's no reason why he can't average 300 yards per game to finish with 5,100 yards and win MVP if no one gets hurt. Every single 5,000+ yard QB since 2013 has finished as a top-three fantasy QB so there's optimism that Stroud can achieve the same feat.
Was it ever really in doubt? Caleb Williams is now officially a Chicago Bear, and he will have a plethora of options at his disposal in 2024. We all know that the Bears have never had a 4,000-yard passer in their entire history, but if Williams can't change that, then no one can.
It's been quite a while since the Bears have gone "all-in", but they did so in the offseason, acquiring Keenan Allen, D'Andre Swift, multiple defensive pieces like Kevin Byard, and of course, drafting Williams and Rome Odunze.
From @SportsCenter: Talking iconic sports duos, what first year success looks like and Chicago pizza preferences with Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze. pic.twitter.com/nJqin0gNuG
— Courtney Cronin (@CourtneyRCronin) April 27, 2024
Williams will also have the likes of D.J. Moore, Khalil Herbert, and Cole Kmet on the team, which just makes things even easier for him. It might take a minute for Williams to adjust to the NFL due to the massive expectations, but once he gets adjusted, you better watch out.
This makes Williams especially appealing in dynasty leagues, and he has the same fantasy aura as Victor Wembanyama had in the 2023 NBA offseason. The only difference is that we can actually expect Williams' team to get some wins this year and be in contention for a playoff spot.
Quarterback ADP Fallers
Speaking of going "all-in", Jerry Jones claims that he has doubled down on going "all-in", but his actions haven't matched up with his words this offseason. Jones is always very aggressive, but this free agency was one of the most passive offseasons during Jones' ownership.
After losing Tony Pollard, they failed to get an adequate replacement and currently have one of the worst RB rooms in the NFL. They also failed to get any standout WRs (lost Michael Gallup) and lost star offensive linemen Tyron Smith and Zach Biadasz.
This only means bad things for Dak Prescott's fantasy stock, as his ADP has plummeted recently. The '24 Cowboys have no star running back to take the pressure off of Dak, and they also have a worse O-Line than the previous campaign.
He is also coming off the best season of his career, which creates more expectations for him to keep up his superstar performance even though his roster is less talented. He'll also be 31 at the start of the season, which makes him less appealing in dynasty leagues compared to younger options like Jordan Love.
Just like the Cowboys, the Dolphins didn't splash the cash in free agency, but they did improve their defense. They also still have electric weapons like De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill, so why has Tua's fantasy stock plummeted recently? Well, right now most fantasy managers simply believe there are better options out there than Tua for a multitude of reasons.
The first is his injury history, which is very concerning. Many have said Tua is "one bad hit away from an early retirement", and he will probably have that stigma around him forever even if he never gets hurt again.
The second is Tua's tendency to get worse as the season progresses. Like Tony Romo, Tagovailoa tends to get worse in December, and this trend continued last season. In his last five games of the year, Tagovailova's passer rating was 88.7, a far cry from his 106.0 passer rating before that point.
The third reason is that many believe this Dolphins core is maxed out, and will never perform better than what they achieved last season. Simply put, Tua is not as appealing as he was a year ago due to so many more alluring options in today's NFL.
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