RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, May 7th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/7
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- Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-160) - 5.5U
- Philadelphia Flyers vs. Washington Capitals (-175) - 6O
- Detroit Red Wings vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (-145) - 5O
- Anaheim Ducks vs. Minnesota Wild (-315)- 5.5O
- St. Louis Blues vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-275) - 5.5O
- Colorado Avalanche (-260) vs. Los Angeles Kings - 5.5O
- Arizona Coyotes (-110) vs. San Jose Sharks (-110) - 5.5O
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Dallas | 7 | 30 | 10 | 19 | 17.75 |
| Tampa Bay | 5 | 24 | 26 | 8 | 14.5 |
| Philadelphia | 30 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 24.75 |
| Washington | 18 | 20 | 29 | 19 | 16.25 |
| Detroit | 20 | 7 | 1 | 31 | 13.25 |
| Columbus | 25 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15.25 |
| Anaheim | 23 | 12 | 2 | 30 | 21.75 |
| Minnesota | 10 | 10 | 24 | 28 | 13 |
| St. Louis | 21 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 17.5 |
| Vegas | 1 | 27 | 28 | 4 | 14.75 |
| Colorado | 5 | 31 | 30 | 2 | 17 |
| Los Angeles | 19 | 8 | 10 | 22 | 14.75 |
| Arizona | 22 | 14 | 7 | 29 | 14.25 |
| San Jose | 29 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 17.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP Rank | Opp PK Rank |
| Dallas | 7 | 6 |
| Tampa Bay | 6 | 10 |
| Philadelphia | 19 | 7 |
| Washington | 3 | 30 |
| Detroit | 30 | 16 |
| Columbus | 27 | 23 |
| Anaheim | 31 | 10 |
| Minnesota | 22 | 17 |
| St. Louis | 9 | 2 |
| Vegas | 21 | 28 |
| Colorado | 8 | 4 |
| Los Angeles | 17 | 9 |
| Arizona | 16 | 12 |
| San Jose | 29 | 14 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!
NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Brayden Point, EDM ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD) - While the natural reaction is to spend up for MacKinnon, it is best to pivot and save some money since the Kings play him tough on home ice so one of the better matchups will be Point at home against the Stars. Point has recorded four goals and registered two assists in seven games against Dallas and he is coming off of a strong performance against them as he notched both a goal and an assist in 17 minutes of ice time.
- Kevin Hayes, PHI ($4,400 DK/ $4,500 FD) - Both sites have Hayes priced down a good amount as his play hasn't been the best down the stretch of the season but he has been showing signs of life over the past couple of games. He is averaging four peripheral stats per game over his last three games played and has even found the back of the net once so if you're looking for a cheaper tournament play, you should consider Hayes.
Other centers to consider:
- High Priced- MacKinnon, Couturier, Seguin, Hintz
- Mid-Tier- Hertl, Kopitar, Karlsson, Stephenson, Dvorak, Eriksson Ek
- Value- Couture, Hayes, Roslovic
NHL DFS Forward Picks
- Mark Stone, VGK ($7,400 DK / $7,500 FD) - Mark Stone is having another efficient season and is certainly worth paying for in this matchup against St. Louis. In six games against the Blues this year, Stone has scored five goals and recorded five assists while combining for 23 peripheral stats. He looks to be in good form as he has scored a goal in three of his last five games played and has registered six total points in that five-game stretch as well.
- Jordan Kyrou, STL ($3,300 DK / $3,600 FD) - Kyrou looks to be really priced down despite recording a point in four of his last five games. He has taken three shots in four of those five games and has generated a goal and two assists in six total games against the Golden Knights this season. If you're needing a contrarian value winger, look no further than Kyrou.
Other wings to consider:
- High Priced- Rantanen, Landeskog, Kaprizov, Marchessault, Oshie, Atkinson
- Mid-Tier- Bjorkstrand, Pavelski, Garland, Mantha, Kessel, Schenn, Meier, Keller, Brown, Benn, Laine
- Value- Kempe, Smith, Coleman, Gurianov, Labanc, Schwartz, Parise
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Alex Pietrangelo, VGK ($6,600 DK / $5,800 FD) - There are a lot of solid pay-up options for the defensemen but Alex Pietrangelo really sticks out for all formats. He has scored a point in three of his last five games played and has totaled 26 total peripheral stats in that five-game stretch. Even though Pietrangelo has only recorded two assists in three games against the Blues, what really stands out are the 19 peripheral stats that he has recorded against his former team.
- Esa Lindell, EDM ($3,900 DK / $3,700 FD) - While it is a tough matchup for the Dallas Stars, the pricing on Lindell is too good to not consider. Lindell has a very solid floor as he sees over 22 minutes of ice time per game and is always good to produce at least three to four peripheral stats per game. He is a great cahs game option especially when he is under the 4k mark on DK.
Other defensemen to consider:
- High Priced- Chychrun, Carlson, Hedman, Makar, Martinez, Klingberg
- Mid-Tier- Spurgeon, Toews, Doughty, Sergachev, Heiskanen
- Value- OEL, Dumba, Cernak, Suter, Walker, Ferraro, Oleskiak, Hague
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Cam Talbot, MIN ($8,400 DK / $7,900 FD) - With the Wild playing at home against the Ducks, it's hard to not consider either of their goals for this matchup. Talbot got the nod on Wednesday and could draw the start for them on Friday night which would be a nice bounce-back kind of game as he suffered a heart-breaking loss in OT to the Golden Knights on Wednesday. Talbot is 18-7-5 on the season with a 2.58 goals allowed average and fared well against the Ducks this year as he is 2-1 with a 1.34 goals allowed average and a .951 save percentage.
- Matiss Kivlenieks, CBJ ($7,900 DK / $7,400 FD) - Kivlenieks looks to draw the start in net for Columbus against the Red Wings and he seems to offer some salary relief on both sites. This will be his firsts tart of the season for Columbus but he performed well in the minors this year as he has gone 6-1 with a 2.27 goals allowed average and a .926 save percentage. Detroit is struggling offensively as they are only averaging two goals scored per game and that number is rather inflated since they scored seven goals in one game against the Stars and the other nine goals spread out through the seven other games played.
Other goalies to consider:
- High Priced- Vasilevskiy
- Mid-Tier- Kuemper
- Value- Petersen
Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- VGK 2
- Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith (Theodore, d-men add on)
- The second line for Vegas has really flourished when they have played the Blues this season and they are well priced on both sites. This line is sporting an expected goals for rate of 3.33 per 60 minutes of ice time and is generating 41.29 scoring chances for and 14.06 high danger chances per 60. In 68 minutes of ice time, they have managed to score four even-strength goals and have a 64.29 corsi for rating which tells us they dominate the puck possession in this matchup.
- Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith (Theodore, d-men add on)
- WSH 2 (mini stack)
- Mantha/ Backstrom (Carlson, d-men add on)
- Let's get a little weird and focus on a mini-stack for this slate. The Manta and Backstrom combo has actually done well together as they have logged over 120 minutes of ice time and have scored seven goals together while generating 52 scoring chances and 21 high danger chances. They draw a very favorable matchup against the Flyers and are both featured on the top power-play unit which ranks third overall in the league and gets a Flyers penalty kill unit that ranks 30th in the league. Look to this mini-stack to do some damage against the depth of the Flyers and add in Carlson for power-play correlation.
- Mantha/ Backstrom (Carlson, d-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: DAL 1, LAK 1, CBJ 1, MIN 2, SJS 2, CBJ 3
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
