NFL DFS Value Plays: Week 12 Bargain Bin for DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo Includes Tua Tagovailoa, Tyrone Tracy Jr., DK Metcalf, more

November 21, 2024

Juan's top NFL DFS sleepers and DFS value plays for Week 12 of 2024. These DFS bargains are cheap on FanDuel, DraftKings, Yahoo daily fantasy football contests.

Welcome to the Week 12 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin for the 2024 NFL season, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.

Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit. On this 12th main slate of the 2024 campaign, I'm glad to report that value-salary players are abundant on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.

In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.

NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro

Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, here are a few particulars about format and content.

The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!

Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are, therefore, suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash-game plays while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.

Typically, I’ll suggest players who are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”

This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.

The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to say a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.

Quarterback DFS Value Plays

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. NE | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $26

Tagovailoa continued to provide strong fantasy production in a Week 11 win over the Raiders, yet his salaries have come down for a matchup against an inconsistent Patriots defense. Tua has revitalized the Dolphins' air attack after it stagnated badly with the likes of Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson.

Tagovailoa just threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns against Las Vegas in what may have been his best all-around game of the season. Tagovailoa now has a second straight home game and faces a Pats defense that's allowed a 16:4 TD:INT ratio this season despite some noteworthy names in its secondary.

#dolphins QB tua tagovailoa currently leads the NFL in completion % with a 73.4%. his four straight games w/ 70%+ is the longest active streak in the NFL. #gofins #finsup #strongertogether

(credit: @NextGenStats)pic.twitter.com/tShB1DDWe5 pic.twitter.com/F5zRI0eHBh

— josh houtz (@houtz) November 22, 2024

Geno Smith, SEA vs. ARI | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $29

Smith was the hero of the Seahawks' upset win over the 49ers in Week 11, recording a game-winning 16-yard touchdown run. The veteran signal-caller had also thrown for 363 yards and three touchdowns in the Seahawks' OT loss to the Rams in Week 9 before the bye, a performance that netted 28.1 DK and FD points/22.1 Yahoo points.

Smith knows the Cardinals well and has seen second-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba take a major step forward over the last several games and become a legitimate third weapon in the passing game. Arizona has only picked off five passes all season as well and given up an elevated 68.4 percent completion rate, furthering Smith's case.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• Tommy Devito, NYG vs. TB | DK: $4,000, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $20

DraftKings-only Special:

• Kyler Murray, ARI at SEA | $6,200

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— Scott (@scottd923) September 25, 2023

Running Back DFS Value Plays

Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG vs. TB | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $26      

Tracy is coming off a bye week in which he's had a chance to rest up from his new high-volume role and rev up for the stretch run of what is turning into a successful rookie season. The 2024 fifth-round pick eclipsed the 100-yard mark on the ground in two of the three games before the Week 11 bye, scoring a rushing TD in each of those contests as well.

Tracy appears to have a firm grasp on the Giants' lead-back job over Devin Singletary at this point. Although the matchup against the Buccaneers on the ground isn't an appealing one on paper, Tracy's talent has proven capable of surviving confrontations with talented defenses.

TYRONE TRACY JR. 🔥

A 45-YARD TOUCHDOWN TO KEEP THE GIANTS IN IT 😤 #NYGvsPIT | ABC, ESPN, ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/MRLgsnavoq

— ESPN (@espn) October 29, 2024

Brian Robinson Jr., WAS vs. DAL | DK: $5,600, FD: $7,900, Yahoo: $29

Robinson appears back to full health after missing two games due to a hamstring injury, as he posted a 16-63-1 line on the ground in the Week 11 loss to the Eagles last Thursday night. The talented running back has now had extra time to rest up for this highly favorable matchup, one that has facilitated plenty of fantasy-friendly performances for running backs this season.

Dallas checks in having allowed the second-most rushing TDs to running backs (13), along with 4.6 yards per carry to the position. The Cowboys have also conceded an elevated 11.0 yards per reception to running backs, which opens up the possibility of Tracy being able to complement his production in that manner.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• Bucky Irving, TB at NYG | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $18

Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays

DK Metcalf, SEA vs. ARI | DK: $6,600, FD: $7,900, Yahoo: $27    

Metcalf made his return from a two-game absence due to a knee injury in Week 11 and posted a 7-70 line on nine targets against a talented 49ers defense. The star wideout logged a robust 53 snaps in the upset victory and appeared to be back to full speed after also having had a Week 10 bye to rest.

Metcalf should once again be very busy in what could be the most competitive game of the week, and he'll face an Arizona defense that's surrendered an average of 12.5 receptions for 150.1 receiving yards to wide receivers, along with eight TDs to the position.

DK Metcalf

JSN is stealing the show, currently.

But JSN’s aDOT dropped heavily as soon as DK Metcalf returned to the lineup.

Metcalf’s targets are MUCH MORE VALUABLE than those JSN sees.

7+ Targets in all but one game since Week 2.

Good schedule ROS.
pic.twitter.com/tVGGd17im5 https://t.co/3PQXzCkUs1

— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) November 20, 2024

Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI at SEA | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $25

Like Metcalf on the other side of this game, Harrison is a name that isn't normally associated with a value play, but the talented rookie's salaries have come down in recent weeks due to some fairly unremarkable stat lines.

Nevertheless, Harrison's talent is impossible to subdue for an extended stretch. He'll come into this favorable matchup against a Seahawks defense that's yielded an average of 143.5 receiving yards and 12 receiving TDs overall to wideouts having posted a combined 11-165-2 line in Weeks 8 and 10.

Jameson Williams, DET at IND | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $23

Williams offered a reminder of his ability to pay off his salaries on one play with his 64-yard touchdown against the Jaguars in Week 11, a play that helped vault him over the century mark for the second time this season.

Williams netted 25.6 DK/23.6 FD/20.6 Yahoo points in that performance, and he'll be in a favorable position to put together another rewarding fantasy performance in Week 12 against a Colts defense that's allowed the eighth-most receiving yards (1,701) and 12.9 yards per reception to wideouts.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• DJ Moore, CHI vs. MIN | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $19

DraftKings-FanDuel Special:

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. ARI | DK: $6,300, FD: $7,500

Tight End DFS Value Plays 

Sam LaPorta, DET at IND | DK: $4,300, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $16     

LaPorta had already shed his injury designation by Wednesday after missing the Week 11 win over the Jaguars due to an AC joint sprain. The talented tight end hasn't played an inordinately large role in Detroit's juggernaut of an offensive attack this season, as Williams has taken another step and the team's impressive two-headed ground attack has often taken center stage.

Yet, LaPorta carries no shortage of upside and had posted 48- and 66-yard tallies -- efforts that also included a touchdown apiece -- in two of the three games before his absence. He now gets a crack at a defense that's had trouble slowing down tight ends all season in that of the Colts, and he does so while carrying very reasonable salaries.

Jared Goff finds Sam LaPorta for the 20 yard TD! pic.twitter.com/UMC57B9ngm

— LionsFanReport (@lionsfanreport) November 11, 2024

Hunter Henry, NE at MIA | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,200, Yahoo: $13

Henry has become a favorite of rookie quarterback Drake Maye, which is unsurprising given his reliability and route-running savvy. The veteran tight end has posted a 30-311-1 line on 41 targets since Maye took over the starting job, averaging 11.2 DK points per contest in the process.

The Patriots will run up against a talented offense in the Tua-led Dolphins in Week 12, meaning that there will very likely eventually be a need for an aggressive approach through the air for New England. Miami has been vulnerable to tight ends as well, allowing an average of 12.6 DK/9.2 FD points per game to the position this season.

ALSO CONSIDER:

• Ja'Tavion Sanders, CAR vs. KC | DK: $3,400, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $11 
• Luke Schoonmaker, DAL at WAS | DK: $2,500, FD: $4,500, Yahoo: $10

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