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It is hard to believe that six weeks of the NFL season have already come and gone. We have now gotten a better picture of who the contenders and pretenders are across the league, as well as the tendencies of coaches and what we can expect from certain offenses. This week gets a little more complicated as some of our favorite star players in DFS cash games with the likes of the Bills, Vikings, Eagles, and Rams all on a bye here in Week 7. We may also have a higher risk of rostering some of the same players as our opponents in DFS this week.
Last week was a solid performance as far as DFS values were concerned. Some of whom I suggested were Rhamondre Stevenson (RB1), and Kenneth Walker (RB8). Stevenson ran roughshod through a struggling Browns defense and Walker had no problem picking up where he left off with Rashaad Penny sidelined. 2022 has been a difficult year for picking quarterback values as the average of the top 3 QBs on the season (26.5 PPG) are outscoring the QB13 on the season by almost 10 fantasy points! The gap between the haves and the have-nots could not be greater at the quarterback position right now in fantasy land.
This article will run every week throughout the regular season. It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. If you didn't catch my Week 1 article that included some DFS tips and tricks, it can be found here. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends based on DraftKings salaries. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must and we should be looking for players with higher guaranteed floors (and consistency) to get us over the 50/50 hump in cash games. No matter which one you decide to play this week, here are some bargain players with potential in Week 7. Now let's get to them picks already!
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Quarterback NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 7
Geno Smith, SEA at LAC | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,800
Geno Smith came back to earth a little bit in a gritty 19-9 win against the rival Arizona Cardinals in Week 6. He didn't have a passing touchdown but was 20 of 31 for 197 yards and was without a turnover. He also added 6 carries on the ground for 48 yards and dating back to last season he has had a rushing floor of almost 3 fantasy points per game in contests he's started. Smith has the Seahawks at 3-3 and has been leading one of the NFL's surprisingly best offenses this season. So far on a PPG basis, Smith is the QB8 on the year and there probably isn't a better feel-good story in the NFL right now than Geno's early season success.
This week the Seahawks face a Chargers defense that has been decimated with their fair share of injuries. The Chargers are close to the middle of the road in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season, but they've also gotten to play Jacoby Brissett and Russell Wilson in consecutive weeks. The over/under for this contest is 52.5 so the experts are predicting plenty of points scored.
What more can be said about Geno Smith outside of the fact that everyone wrote him off? He said he wouldn't write back though. Geno has three different fantasy finishes in the top 6 of QBs this year. His only poor showing came in rainy playing conditions against a tough 49ers defense. With an improved offensive line, Kenneth Walker, along with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the offense in Seattle is still cooking even with a different QB at the helm.
While we need to continue to see more consistency from Smith, he is playing well within the confines of the game and completing a staggering 73.4 percent of his passes! What's even more impressive is that his 8.0 yards per pass attempt are third-best in the league on top of having the best completion percentage. While some quarterbacks can pad their stats with short passes, Geno is slinging it all over the yard. In what looks like another solid matchup this week against the Chargers, Smith feels like a solid play.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF at KC | DK: $5,500, FD: $7,200
Derek Carr was originally the value quarterback chosen in this spot, but tight end Darren Waller is expected to miss Sunday's contest and wide receiver Hunter Renfrow has been held out of practice with a hip injury. This leaves Carr without his usual array of weapons and could result in a matchup where the Raiders are relying heavily on Josh Jacobs.
The 49ers find themselves coming off a tough loss last week against the Falcons and have to gear up for the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. Last week, Jimmy G was the QB9 on the week after completing 29 of 41 passes for 296 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, it is not likely that San Francisco will be able to play the kind of ground-and-pound style of football we have gotten accustomed to seeing from them against inferior opponents. To stay up with the Chiefs, the 49ers are going to have to go to the air and get Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk more involved. With the recent trade for Christian McCaffrey the 49ers offense looks even more enticing for fantasy.
So far this season, the Chiefs' defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks at 22.1 points per game and has not been a hard unit to move the ball on. As mentioned in the introduction to this week's DFS article, picking late quarterbacks and winning in fantasy with them has been much more difficult than in years past as the three players scoring the most fantasy points at the QB position have been Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. If you decide to spend up on Lamar Jackson (provided Rashad Bateman and Mark Andrews are healthy) or Patrick Mahomes this week, no one will fault you for it. Nonetheless, the purpose of this article is to give you some of the bargain plays in DFS should you need them.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 7
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at DET | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,900
If Zeke can't get it going this week against a Lions defense that can't stop anybody, then he's never returning back to form. Detroit is giving up the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season at 26.8 per game! Dak Prescott is expected to make his return at quarterback this week and the Cowboys have wide receiver Michael Gallup back healthy as well so we should start seeing them playing much like the Dallas offenses of old.
This year Elliott is playing 63 percent of the team's offensive snaps and has not been sharing touches with Tony Pollard as some had feared he would. However, Elliott has found the end zone just twice and only has 6 receptions on the season. Now that Prescott is back under center, hopefully, that is something that should change. Elliott is averaging 4.1 yards per carry this season and does have a long of 27 yards so some of the old explosiveness is still there.
The Cowboys are 7-point home favorites in this one and Elliott should see plenty of carries. If he doesn't redeem himself with a big game this week he may never find himself back on the DFS value list ever again. Nonetheless, he is of great value this week and we should give him one last chance to get it going for our lineups this Sunday.
Kenneth Walker III, SEA at LAC | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,300
Walked impressed in his first full game as Seattle's starting running back where he played 69 percent of the team's offensive snaps while rushing 21 times for 97 yards and a TD while catching 2 passes for 13 yards. He finished as the RB8 on the week and put any lingering doubts about his ability to carry this offense to bed. We know that Pete Carroll loves to run the football and Walker looked every bit of the part on Sunday in the team's 19-9 victory over the Cardinals. This week he gets a Chargers defense that is giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs at 25.5 per game!
Some had previously been concerned about DeeJay Dallas having a large enough role in the Seahawks' offense last week that it would negatively impact Walker's fantasy value, but so far that hasn't happened. The Seahawks have one of the best rushing attacks in the league this season and we should expect that to continue. Walker was a highly touted prospect who looked great at the NFL combine while flashing some elite metrics that included a 98th-percentile 40-yard dash and a 96th-percentile speed score. Last season at Michigan State, Walker rushed 263 times for 1,636 yards and 19 total TDs. He is ready for the big time. Could we be seeing a changing of the guard at running back? Rookies like Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce, and now Walker appear to have all taken over their team's backfield. In what appears to be another great matchup this week, Walker feels like a must-start at his price.
Travis Etienne Jr., JAX vs NYG | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,200
Etienne is a player who has had a ton of hype since he was drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft by the Jaguars to play alongside his buddy, Trevor Lawrence. Etienne was a human highlight reel at Clemson with blazing speed, soft hands, and a superb ability to make plays as a receiver out of the backfield. So far that hasn't happened yet as he missed his entire rookie campaign with a Lisfranc injury and has just 301 rushing yards along with 13 receptions for 146 yards on the season. He has yet to score an NFL touchdown.
The good news is that Etienne is averaging 5.6 yards per carry on the ground and has looked like the better running back than his counterpart, James Robinson over the last three games. The question is whether or not he can get enough touches to produce for fantasy. Etienne has the homerun and big play ability that we want from players in our DFS lineup, but the Jaguars backfield has largely been split this season. The hope is that Doug Pederson and the Jaguars coaches have realized just how important Etienne is to the team's success on offense.
The Giants' defense is in the top 10 in fewest points allowed to fantasy running backs so far this season at 18.7 per game. However, if there's one thing that DFS has taught us this year is that some lineup differentiation from all of the RBs with the easiest weekly matchups can be a good thing. Etienne's big games are coming and I'd rather be a little early on him than too late.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 7
Michael Gallup, DAL vs DET | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,100
It may seem like I am picking on Detroit lately, but I don't mean anything personal by it. The current regime has done a nice job picking up the pieces from Matt Patricia's mess even if the Lions currently stand at 1-4. They have some solid young cornerstones on offense and should be an even more exciting team to watch once rookie Jameson Williams is back, but their defense is putrid right now and simply can't stop anybody. In DFS we must use that to our advantage, especially at such a discounted price on Michael Gallup this week.
While he hasn't yet had a big game, the Cowboys are slowly working him back into the offense as he missed the first three games of the season after a knee injury ended his 2021 campaign early. Nonetheless, quarterback Dak Prescott returns after a thumb injury in what feels like should be a get-right game for the Dallas offense. The Lions are currently giving up the eighth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season at 31.2 per game!
Gallup received a big extension from the Cowboys' front office in the offseason and has been a solid player when healthy. In 2019 and 2020 he averaged 63 receptions for 975 yards and 5.5 touchdowns. Now that he is fully healthy we could get some solid fantasy production from Gallup.
Alec Pierce, IND at TEN | DK: $4,600, FD: $6,100
Pierce was taken out of the game in Week 1 after he suffered a concussion and didn't play in Week 2 as well. In just 4 healthy games so far this season, Pierce has seen 27 targets while producing 18 receptions for 271 yards and a TD. He is averaging over 15 yards per reception. While Matt Ryan has looked rough early on this season, Pierce isn't likely to see a double team due to Michael Pittman as the WR1 on the Colts and has been running more of the deep routes while Pittman has been running the ones underneath. The Colts have also bounced back from a rough opening start to get to 3-2-1 on the season.
At a price of just $4,600, Pierce feels like such a steal this week against a struggling Tennessee Titans defense. Currently, Tennessee is giving up the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season at 37.6 points per game! Pierce has been improving each week and was an overlooked prospect in the 2022 NFL Draft. He has some impressive athletic measurables at 6 foot 3, 208 lbs., and 4.41 speed. His 40-yard dash ranks in the 90th percentile with a 95th percentile speed score, 94th percentile burst score, and a 96th percentile catch radius according to Player Profiler. Pierce played his college ball at the University of Cincinnati where head coach Luke Fickell ran a heavy RPO scheme and their team was usually winning handily at halftime, which limited Pierce's opportunities and shrunk the team's overall passing pie.
He is a player who is emerging on the Colts and has some serious upside. He is likely not going to be at this great of a discount for long and I can't help but feel like we are going to look back at the 2022 rookie wide receiver class in awe in a few years. For now, it feels good to continue to buy Pierce in DFS as long as he is going to continue to stay at such a discounted price. It's only a matter of time before the rest of the market catches up.
DeAndre Carter, LAC vs SEA | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,200
A player who has bounced around the NFL in recent seasons, Carter appears to have found a home with the Los Angeles Chargers in what is another solid fantasy matchup this week for their offense. Keenan Allen has missed the last several games with a hamstring injury and fellow receiver Josh Palmer has also popped up on the injury report after suffering a concussion, which means things could open up greatly for Carter this week.
Tight End Gerald Everett also missed practice this week with an illness and is not expected to miss this week's contest against the Seahawks, but their defense ranks near the bottom in passing yards allowed, total yards allowed and ranks 30th in points allowed at 27.2 per game. Quarterback Justin Herbert is officially off the injury report after playing the last month through a tough rib injury and this feels like a game for the Chargers' offense to get back in sync before their Week 8 bye.
Carter played 73 percent of the team's offensive snaps last week and that number should be even higher this week if Palmer and Allen miss the game. For a price of just $3700, Carter feels like an absolute value in our WR3 of Flex spot, which should allow us to spend up elsewhere. While the Chargers offense hasn't looked like the high-powered unit we are used to, things should start clicking with Herbert coming back to full health.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 7
Robert Tonyan, GB vs WAS | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,500
2022 has been a tough year for tight ends in fantasy as Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have been the only ones paying up for. If your plan this week is to load up elsewhere and go cheap at tight end, Tonyan feels like a solid play with wide receivers Randall Cobb and Sammy Watkins sidelined for this week's contest versus Washington.
Last week Tonyan saw 12 targets where he caught 10 of them for 90 yards. We know that Green Bay's offense has been less than ideal this season, but it is a unit that we should expect to continue to get better as the season goes along. Due to the reality that their current array of pass catchers are very limited, Tonyan could be a solid value play this week as we should expect last week's passing volume to also be there. He also played 63 percent of the team's offensive snaps last week, which is his season-high.
Gerald Everett, LAC vs SEA | DK: $4,000, FD: $6,300
Everett missed a day of practice this week with an illness, so keep an eye on his status for Sunday just in case. On a points per game basis, Everett ranks at about the TE8 on the season in half PPR formats with 7.9 points per game. He has been solid for fantasy and feels like another must-start this week as wide receivers Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer could miss this week's contest against the Seahawks.
This season Everett has averaged 6 targets per game and has found the end zone twice while being one of the better late-round value tight ends in all of fantasy. The Seattle defense is also allowing the most fantasy points scored per game to tight ends this season at 21.4 per game! For this reason, Everett feels like a solid play in our lineups at such a discounted price.
As mentioned earlier, navigating the tight end landscape has been a difficult one for fantasy this year. If we aren't going to pay up for Andrews or Kelce it is better off finding some of the cheaper options at tight end who have what appears to be a great matchup for this week.
Thank you for reading my weekly article. Please send me a message on Twitter if you have any more DFS or Start/Sit questions. Best of luck this week!
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