Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 3 (2025) - Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne Jr.

September 20, 2025

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 3 of 2025 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

So far through the first two weeks, we've done a pretty good job of identifying the top matchups for running backs, but there are always a few big performances that come from matchups that we didn't identify, too.

The reality is that every team is still establishing its identity in terms of how much they want to run or throw the football, and using last year's data simply won't cut it going forward, as there have been major changes to personnel on most teams. However, using only a few games' worth of data in the 2025 season is problematic, too. In a few more weeks, we will have a more stable sample size, but for now, we are winging it a bit and relying on what data we do have and what we've seen with our own eyes in these first few weeks.

My goal in this weekly article will be to highlight the absolute best matchups for running backs on Sunday's main slate, with a primary focus on DFS. However, these are also running backs that you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets, too. Let's get to it. Here are my top four matchups for Week 3.

Week 3 Running Back Matchups

So in my constant search for usable data, I crunched the first two weeks of numbers to come up with some metrics. The first column is the overall offensive rushing attack vs. their opponent, calculated using each team's offensive and defensive DVOA. The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated by using the "adjusted line yards" created and allowed by each team. And the third column is simply Pro Football Focus's run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

One matchup really stands out this week, and I had no choice but to feature the running back on that team. Read on to see who that player just might be.

Bijan Robinson ($7,900 DK, $9,500 FD)

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Robinson should be a popular play this week. I may have stoked the fire earlier this week when I fired off this tweet that featured what he did against the Panthers last season.

Happy Bijan Week! https://t.co/CSN5jG4Ifl pic.twitter.com/6rdbRJDC71

— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) September 16, 2025

That history wouldn't mean much if the Panthers had shown the ability to stop the run this season, but they were gashed by Travis Etienne Jr. for 143 yards in the opener. Last week, they did hold James Conner in check, but Arizona's offensive line has graded out as one of the worst so far this season.

Robinson just happens to be coming off an elite outing against the Vikings in which he racked up 143 yards rushing on 22 totes. He's scored at least one touchdown in seven of his last ten games, and his ability to make things happen as a receiver (which was on display in Week 1 when he had six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown) makes him an incredibly tough player to stop.

Jonathan Taylor ($7,200 DK, $8,500 FD)

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

What if I told you I could guarantee you 20+ touches from a top-5 NFL back against the 31st-ranked DVOA rushing defense? Well, that is what I am telling you should happen when Jonathan Taylor suits up on Sunday for the 2-0 Colts against the 0-2 Titans.

Taylor's huge Week 2 performance against a good Denver defense was a big reason why the Colts were able to pull off the upset win. He rumbled for 165 yards on the ground on 25 carries, including a 68-yard run. He also had another huge play as a receiver, rolling up 43 yards on a catch-and-run. He finished with 215 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown.

If we consult our handy chart above, it's all green for Taylor and the Colts this week. While Daniel Jones's play has been impressive, he's only been able to be so effective because the Colts are establishing the run against their opponents. Make no mistake about it, this is a run-first offense, and Taylor should get fed in this matchup.

He's a good bet for 100 yards and a touchdown on Sunday as the Colts are road favorites and this offense is firing on all cylinders.

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Javonte Williams ($6,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

I think much of the fantasy football landscape is waiting for the game where Javonte Williams comes back to Earth, and the consensus is that he is overperforming compared to what we can expect from him for the rest of the season.

Well, I have news for those people - it ain't happening this week. Williams gets a juicy matchup with the Bears' run defense that ranks 26th in run DVOA and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs so far this season.

Sure, it's only been two weeks, but this Chicago run defense was pretty shaky last season, and the early returns are not good. Meanwhile, Dallas has run the ball much more effectively than it did last year. The numbers are clearly a product of a great matchup against the Giants last week, but they also found some success in Week 1 against a stout Eagles front. The Dallas offensive line looks improved, and Williams has looked more explosive than in prior seasons.

Here's a scatter plot looking at the running backs in expected fantasy points as rushers and receivers in Weeks 1-2.

Javonte Williams might be the most surprising on this chart. pic.twitter.com/Au3DCrlVUm

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) September 19, 2025

This game between Dallas and Chicago carries a 50.5-point total, and that feels a little low after we saw the Bears give up 50+ to the Lions and the Cowboys give up over 500 yards of offense to the New York Giants. Williams has a stranglehold on the Dallas backfield, and his role as the goalline back makes him ultra appealing this week as Dallas should be able to move the ball and get multiple scoring opportunities in this one.

Don't overthink this one, smash the button on Williams. I think he could have his best game as a Cowboy this week.

Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,900 DK, $7,000 FD)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

Finally, we have to address the elephant in the room. The matchup for Etienne Jr. and the Jaguars' rushing attack this week just about broke my rankings. Through two weeks, Jacksonville has the fourth-best rushing attack using DVOA metrics, while the Texans have the 29th-ranked run defense. Furthermore, the Jags' offensive line has created the most adjusted line yards, while the Texans' front-seven has allowed the most. It's basically a perfect storm in terms of a matchup, and I don't think many folks realize how good it is.

Etienne Jr. has been incredibly efficient for Jacksonville so far this year and is a threat out of the backfield, too. There is a growing contingent of folks who think rookie Bhayshul Tuten is going to challenge him for his starting role before long, and if you are one of those people, then you should be playing some Tuten in DFS lineups this week, too.

Both backs could theoretically have solid days if they split the touches 50/50, as we saw both Bucky Irving and Rachaad White roll up 60+ yards rushing each for the Bucs last week.

Don't sleep on this matchup, or hesitate to deploy either running back because of the timeshare. This is a smash spot for the Jags runners this week!

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