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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 9 Thursday Night Football matchup between the 49ers and the Packers and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the San Francisco 49ers playing host to the Green Bay Packers.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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49ers vs Packers: More or Less Contest
- Aaron Rodgers OVER 283.5 passing yards
- Nick Mullens OVER 235.5 passing yards
Coming off of a thorough 28-22 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay will be looking to bounce back. Running backs Aaron Jones (calf), Jamaal Williams (COVID exposure) and A.J. Dillon (COVID-19) are all dealing with various ailments. As things stand, Jones is still highly questionable to play. How do you get by with no starting running backs? You have your two-time MVP go to work. Rodgers is averaging just under 280 passing yards per game, and he’s without his running back weapons. This number is surprisingly low.
This one’s a little tough, but we’re banking on the play of Rodgers here. If Green Bay is going to win this game, they have to get out to a lead and force the 49ers to throw. Rodgers can still carve up any defense, and Mullens has shown a willingness to sling the pigskin around. The over/under for this game is set at 50.5, but it has sneaky shootout potential. Let’s take the over once again.
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49ers vs Packers: More or Less Contest
- Nick Mullens OVER 235.5 passing yards
- Davante Adams OVER 89.5 receiving yards
We already talked about this one, but we can get some more information. In addition to Green Bay needing to throw to win, San Francisco is going to be without their top two running backs in Raheem Mostert (ankle) and Tevin Coleman (knee). Their backups, Jerick McKinnon and JaMycal Hasty have been good at times but not great. They may not be able to run wild over Green Bay as other backs have done this season.
If you think Rodgers is able to hit his over, which he should, Adams is going to hit his mark. Despite missing 2.5 games, Adams is lapping his teammates in every receiving category. He has more receptions than anyone else has targets. He’s averaging over 11 targets per game, and defenses are struggling to stop him. Double up with the over here.
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49ers vs Packers: More or Less contest
- Aaron Rodgers OVER 274.5 passing yards
- Nick Mullens UNDER 235.5 passing yards
- Davante Adams OVER 7.5 receptions
We had some confidence in Rodgers at his previous number, and you can have even more confidence at this mark. It’s been lowered by 11 yards, and he’s almost guaranteed to have at least 35 passing attempts. If he can connect on a big pass or two, he should smash this mark with relative ease on the evening.
On this one, you could take the under in order to hedge your bets. You only have to get two out of three correct to cash, and Mullens is the hardest read of these three. With Rodgers’ passing yardage number coming down, you can have even more confidence in the over there while taking the under on Mullens. With tight end George Kittle (foot) out along with wide receivers Deebo Samuel (hamstring), Brandon Aiyuk (COVID exposure), and Kendrick Bourne (COVID-19), the path to fewer passing yards is clearly in play.
With the raw volume that Adams is going to get, this mark is just such an easy clear. He’s the primary read on just about every play, and the team is likely to be going to the passing game a lot. If Adams was more of a downfield receiver, it’d be a different story, but he thrives in short-to-intermediate areas where he sees plenty of opportunities for easy receptions.
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