Thursday Night Football Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight: Bears vs Buccaneers

October 8, 2020

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 5 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bears and the Buccaneers and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the Chicago Bears hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

Bears vs Buccaneers: More or Less Contest

• Tom Brady UNDER 265.5 passing yards
• Nick Foles UNDER 248.5 passing yards

With a total score of around 44.5 points, Las Vegas thinks this won’t be a high-scoring game, and I tend to agree. The Bears’ defense has the pieces to slow down this Tampa Bay offense, especially in the secondary. In addition to that, the Buccaneers will be without Chris Godwin (hamstring) and LeSean McCoy (ankle), and their other pass catchers are all dealing with injuries right now as well. I think it’s a low-scoring game, and we see these two teams just slog it out all night. 

Unless Tampa gets up big and the Bears are forced to throw, I think this under is pretty easy. Foles struggled against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 4, and he didn’t start moving the ball until late in the game when the Colts were playing prevent defense. This Buccaneers’ defense is playing really good ball right now, and, with limited receiving weapons, I don’t have confidence in Foles’ ability to move the ball with ease.

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Bears vs Buccaneers: More or Less Contest

• Allen Robinson OVER 5.5 receptions
• Ronald Jones OVER 69.5 rushing yards

In the last two games, Robinson has been feasting for the Bears. He’s caught 17 balls for 224 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been the most reliable producer on this offense, and Foles was looking his way constantly as he had a nearly 25 percent target share. The Buccaneers don’t have the secondary to slow him down, so I think he clears this mark with ease.

On the other side, we’re taking the over for Jones for a couple of reasons. One is that running back Leonard Fournette (ankle) is doubtful to play with an injury. The second is Jones figures to get a stable number of touches in the running game that, even if he’s inefficient, he should be able to clear this number. His offensive line has also been playing really well to this point in the season, and I think that can continue.

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Bears vs Buccaneers: More or Less Contest

• Tom Brady UNDER 265.5 passing yards
• Nick Foles UNDER 248.5 passing yards
• Allen Robinson OVER 5.5 receptions

I’ve already covered everything in this category, but I’m just doubling down on the confidence I have here. I think the Buccaneers win this game in an ugly fashion. I think the over/under of 44.5 is too high, and we’re going to see them have to grind out this win. The Bears held the high-flying Atlanta Falcons to just 238 yards through the air. I don’t think Brady and the Bucs top this mark. 

I will die on the hill that Foles was not a massive upgrade over Trubisky, and the benching of him made no sense at the time it occurred. Foles last week struggled to move the ball against the Colts, and he only had three points until late in the fourth quarter. The Buccaneers have been playing strong defense to start the year, and I think they can slow down Chicago tonight.

Robinson might be the safest bet in this game. When the Bears move the ball through the air, it’s through Robinson. He’s had 23 targets in the last two games, and, when they were moving the ball late last week, they were force-feeding him touches. They may not get him 10 targets, but I think he’ll still have a good amount of them. I love him again in this group.

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Bears vs Buccaneers: Rapid Fire Contest

• Tom Brady more passing yards than Nick Foles & Ronald Jones more rushing yards than David Montgomery

The Brady one is a reasonable one to have confidence in due to how the offense has looked thus far. Other than garbage-time throwing, the Bears just haven’t moved the ball well. Brady and the Bucs should be able to outpace Foles. Jones has to outdo Montgomery in a pretty big way for it to happen, but it’s not that outlandish for it to occur. The Bears are struggling to run the football, and the Bucs are playing great defense up front. I’ll take Jones here.

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