TNF Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight: Jaguars vs Dolphins

September 23, 2020

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jaguars and the Dolphins and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the Jacksonville Jaguars playing host to the Miami Dolphins. 

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars: More or Less Contest

• Ryan Fitzpatrick OVER 268.5 passing yards
• Gardner Minshew OVER 263.5 passing yards

This one is a bit of a toss-up, but I’m taking the over here. There are games when Fitzpatrick looks electric. However, the other games look just absolutely awful. This Jaguars’ team hasn’t been a complete pushover as everyone was expecting, and they’ve been able to keep games close. I think they’re able to do that again against a Dolphins’ unit that has failed to live up to some of the offseason hype they had. In a game that has some sneaky shootout potential, we’re going over here.

In 16 games of play, Minshew has gone over this mark just six times. I think he makes it seven tonight. The Dolphins’ defense hasn’t been as effective as they had hoped, and Byron Jones is out for this one. I think Jacksonville is able to throw the ball, and Gardner goes big again to try and keep pace with Miami.

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Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars: More or Less Contest

• DeVante Parker OVER 60.5 receiving yards
• James Robinson OVER 69.5 rushing yards

This one is pretty easy math for me. If I’m taking the over on Fitzpatrick, Parker is going to be a key part of that. Parker has the ability to catch balls down the field with ease thanks to his size. The Jaguars lost a lot of talent at corner over the last year, and rookie C.J. Henderson doesn’t have the size to match up on those jump balls. He hits the over here.

I love Robinson for this week. The Dolphins’ have been gashed on the ground in the first two weeks of the season. Robinson is going to keep that rolling in Week 3. He’s run well, and he has a solid offensive line in front of him. As long as the Jags are able to keep this one close, Robinson will have a steady role all game long.

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Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars: More or Less Contest

• Ryan Fitzpatrick OVER 268.5 passing yards
• D.J. Chark UNDER 4.5 receptions
• DeVante Parker OVER 60.5 receiving yards
• James Robinson OVER 69.5 rushing yards

I’ve already given you my analysis here, but, just to reiterate, I’m expecting Miami to have to throw in this game. Their running game has been scattered and confusing. Fitzpatrick remains polarizing and inconsistent, but he can still chuck the ball all over the field. He hits the over here.

This is the only pick in this category that I haven’t covered yet. I love Chark, but he’s not performing up to expectations thus far. He has caught less than five balls in each game thus far, and it’s not going to get better against Xavien Howard. Additionally, he’s dealing with a chest injury, and we can see him bow out of the game at any time as a result. Take the under here. 

As I said previously, Parker going over hinges on the success of Fitzpatrick. He’s the team’s leading receiving option, and it just takes him one jump ball along with his regular work to hit this mark. Assuming he gets force-fed by Fitz early in the game, he could clear this mark before the first half is over.

Robinson will hit this mark as long as Jacksonville isn’t down by a huge amount early in the game. Offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has tried to keep this team balanced between the run and pass, and Robinson’s effectiveness has allowed them to do just that. Against a Dolphins’ defense that has struggled to stop running backs, fire him up with some confidence.

UPDATE: D.J. Chark has been scratched and will not play on Thursday night.

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Miami Dolphins @ Jacksonville Jaguars: Rapid Fire Contest

• Ryan Fitzpatrick MORE passing yards than Gardner Minshew & DeVante Parker MORE receptions than D.J. Chark

We have to go 2/2 on this one, and I think we should have no problem with that. Fitzpatrick is going to have to throw more because this Dolphins’ running game just can’t get rolling. Additionally, if tight end Mike Gesicki can keep rolling, that instantly elevates the ceiling of Fitz. At receiver, I just think Parker is going to have more opportunities to catch the football. Fitz is going to feed him as much as he can, and Chark’s injury doesn’t help his cause. Throw in other options like Keelan Cole and Tyler Eifert, there is a clear path here, and he has the bonus 0.5 receptions to help him out.

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