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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Titans and the Colts and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the Tennessee Titans playing host to the Indianapolis Colts.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
Titans vs Colts: More or Less Contest
- Philip Rivers UNDER 263.5 passing yards
- Ryan Tannehill OVER 242.5 passing yards
Colts quarterback Philip Rivers has gone under this mark in all but two games this season, and throwing the ball just isn’t how they’re going to win. Wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (groin) is still dealing with an injury, and this group lacks the potency to generate some big plays. His arm is continuing to struggle with driving the ball down the field, and the Titans’ defense is improving as their secondary gets healthy.
The Colts have a great defense, and the Titans love to lean on their running game. In this game, they’ll be able to move the ball through the air because this Colts secondary just doesn't have the pieces to match up with wideouts A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. Tannehill has cleared this mark just three times, but his offense is more explosive along with his willingness to move the ball down the field.
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Titans vs Colts: More or Less Contest
- Philip Rivers UNDER 266.5 passing yards
- A.J. Brown OVER 62.5 receiving yards
This number is changed slightly from our first prop, but it’s actually moving further in our direction. We were already looking at taking the under here, and the book is moving the line for us more. While Hilton could end up on the field tonight, soft-tissue injuries aren’t ones that you want to mess with too much. Just take the under for this one.
Thanks to his big-play ability, this is an awesome number to get Brown at. He’s gone over this number in three of six games this year, and his explosiveness just makes him impossible to contain. As the Colts’ cornerbacks likely won’t be able to jam him at the line of scrimmage, he’ll have room to get ahead of steam and rack up yardage down the field and on underneath routes.
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Titans vs Colts: More or Less Contest
- Philip Rivers UNDER 266.5 passing yards
- Ryan Tannehill OVER 243.5 passing yards
- A.J. Brown OVER 5.5 receptions
- Derrick Henry OVER 85.5 rushing yards
- Corey Davis OVER 51.5 receiving yards
Until Rivers shows he can consistently wind back the clock, you should be looking to fade his arm. The knuckleballs that he is throwing just give no reason for confidence. He’s also playing in an offense that doesn’t want him to throw the ball 45 times a game to rack up yardage with volume. They want to keep scores low and generate points that way.
As we’ve talked about a few times already, the Colts’ defense has really tightened up this year, and they’ve become one of the NFL’s best. They have been exploited on occasion, and the Titans have the pieces to do it. With great receiving weapons in Brown, Davis, and Jonnu Smith, along with Henry as a battering ram, it’s just impossible to try and fully shut down this Titans offense.
Out of this bunch, this is probably the one where we should have the least confidence considering Brown has only cleared the mark twice the season, but we’re going after it anyway. The Colts’ offense has struggled this year with consistency, but the Titans' defense should allow some ball movement. When that happens, they’ll look to feature Brown against these Colts corners.
We have two reasons to believe in this pick. For one, Henry is a man amongst boys, and there are just very few players that are able to take him down with any form of success. Second, Henry has alternated 100-yard games to start the season with down performances in between. He had a down performance in Week 9, which means he’s due for a big week this week.
I think the Titans will be able to run the ball, but they’re not going to rely on that exclusively. When they go to the air, it’s to Davis and Brown, which makes this number relatively achievable. Additionally, Davis is coming off probably the worst game of his career. He was shut out by the Chicago Bears on three targets. His number is depressed because of it, which gives us value that we can attack.
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Titans vs Colts: Rapid Fire Contest
- Ryan Tannehill covers 21.5 passing yards more than Philip Rivers & A.J. Brown has more receptions than Corey Davis
Tannehill has better weapons at his disposal. While the Titans love to lean on the running game with Henry, that’s not all they can do, and Tannehill can get the ball vertical against this Colts passing defense. For Brown vs. Davis, it’s a matter of talent. Davis is a good player, but Brown has been a truly special player during his first two seasons, and that is going to continue to grow with Tannehill under center.
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