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The fantasy baseball season is long and therefore lends itself to streaks. Players can have stretches where they hit everything in sight and then can also have weeks where they can buy a hit, too. We tend to overreact to hot and cold streaks both more often than we should in a 162-game season, but can a hot streak be the start of a longer period of production?
Among the hottest hitters in baseball in the last two weeks are Spencer Steer, Ryan McMahon, Willie Castro, and Michael Conforto. What can we make of this recent production surge - is it sustainable? Or are these just hot streaks destined to end sooner or later?
Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) explores the outlook on these hot hitters to determine their fantasy value for the rest of the season.
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June's Hottest Hitters
Spencer Steer, 3B - Cincinnati Reds
Steer's fantasy season thus far is incredible for someone who went universally undrafted in 12-team leagues. He is a top-75 player with eight home runs and five stolen bases through one-third of the season. Over the past month, Steer is a top-20 player thanks to four of his five steals coming in this span along with batting .324.
Unfortunately, Steer's expected stats are far off from his results:
Surface stats: .282 AVG, .474 SLG
Expected stats: .245 AVG, .404 SLG
The good news is that even if Steer regresses slightly he can still remain above his expected numbers by a decent margin thanks to playing home games in Great American Ballpark which is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in baseball. He is worth holding but can be sold high if an offer comes in or even dropped down the stretch run in a must-win matchup where the Reds are away all week.
Ryan McMahon, 1B/3B - Colorado Rockies
McMahon's true fantasy breakout has been awaited for the past half-decade due to playing for the Coors-boosted Rockies. Despite above-average power and everyday playing time, McMahon has failed to deliver more than replacement-level production since 2019. He has only seen the field so much due to his fielding which has been borderline elite over the past three seasons!
Nevertheless, McMahon's 2023 is off to a torrid start and spiking in recent weeks. Of all players in fantasy baseball, he is number one in category leagues over the past two weeks with 12 runs, 5HR, 16RBI, and a .385 AVG. Best of all, McMahon's expected stats this season line him up with the top-100 production provided.
His 30.8% strikeout rate is high but with a BABIP jump likely due to a limited shift and the highest ISO of his career, McMahon should remain quite valuable for managers. Hold if you have him.
Willi Castro, 2B/SS/3B/OF - Minnesota Twins
Castro was often hyped as a DEEP sleeper in fantasy circles during the preseason and is just now putting things together. He is, and has been a super-utility player which is great for an unspectacular bat like him. Castro can sneak into a lineup for nearly any position on the field and is finally granted a green light on the base paths to show off that 89th-percentile sprint speed.
Castro's .248 AVG, 12 runs, and 22 RBI are far from astounding but with 5HR and 11SB on the season, there is a lot to like even with this speed-bosted environment of 2023. 9 of his 11 steals have come over the past month where he ranks as a top-50 player and it may just continue given that the Twins lose a starter weekly.
Castro has natural power in his bat but with a more pull-heavy approach this season, his average is up and sustainable even with a spiked K%. He can be dropped if the steals disappear but for the time being, hold tight or pick him up if available.
Michael Conforto, OF - San Francisco Giants
Conforto's resurgence is a breath of fresh air after missing all of 2022 due to an off-season shoulder injury and underperforming throughout 2021. Conforto is batting .242 with a .447 SLG, however, over the past month he has provided 6HR on a .329 AVG. There is a lot to like in this profile considering his history as one of the league's hardest hitters year over year.
We can forgive cold starts for players who have missed as much time as Conforto. Of course, the injury risk is always there but midseason, he is basically free off of the waiver wire rather than costing a draft pick.
The rest of season outlook on a healthy Conforto is quite favorable as the Giants' offense is underrated (especially versus righties where they rank top-5 in wRC+) and recently has gotten healthier. On top of that, Conforto is a prime trade candidate to a contender due to his one-year deal if the Giants' season tanks soon.
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