RADIO
It's the day before the NBA trade deadline, and we have seven games to look at tonight. Although the matchups aren't great, as always, you should be able to find something you like. The game I'll have my eye on is the Pelicans going on the road to play the Clippers. Cleveland going to Washington isn't super compelling, but the Cavs are a must-watch right now as they keep winning games.
I split my two games in my article on Monday. I shouldn't have picked against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are just too hot right now. I liked having 5.5 points with the Kings, but I should've taken a +26.5 alternate line. The Brooklyn Nets beat the Warriors in the first quarter on Monday night. Brooklyn is only 20-29 in the standings, but they are a remarkable 21-4-1 ATS in the first quarter at home this season.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, February 7. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Golden State Warriors (-2.5) at Philadelphia 76ers (237 total)
The Warriors bounced back after their overtime loss to the Hawks and got the win Monday night in Brooklyn. It was a team they should beat, and for a team that's now 22-25, they have another opportunity in tonight's game. This is a game the Warriors should win, and I'm going to back them here.
Golden State has won three of its last four games. They realistically could be on a seven-game winning streak right now, which would change the whole narrative surrounding this team. The Warriors lost close games against the Kings, Lakers, and Hawks that could have gone either way. Over their last seven games, they have been sixth in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating. This team is playing better than they are portrayed.
Meanwhile, the Sixers are 1-2 since it was announced that Joel Embiid is out long-term. Philly has been decent on offense, ranking 11th in offensive rating. On defense, they are having trouble stopping opponents. The 126 points per game they are giving up is 28th in the NBA. There's just no way to replace Joel Embiid on the defensive side of the ball, and the Sixers should be a bottom-tier defense as long as he's out.
Over the last seven games, the Warriors are second in points per game, hitting 50.8 percent of their field goals and 39.3 percent from three on 15 makes per game. I like the Warriors here.
The Pick: Warriors ML (-135 DraftKings)
New Orleans Pelicans (+7) at Los Angeles Clippers (234.5 total)
As mentioned in the intro, this is the most intriguing game on the board tonight. Both of these teams are playing good basketball, and I think it'll be competitive and down to the wire. I'm not interested in a full-game bet, so I'm rolling with the Pelicans' first-quarter spread.
Over each team's last five games, the Pelicans have given up slightly fewer first-quarter points. Opponents are shooting 46.2 percent against New Orleans, compared to 49.6 percent against the Clippers. New Orleans is averaging more points and shooting better percentages. They also rebound better, which is something I sometimes find important. In a small 12-minute interval, controlling the glass can be key. It allows you to grab defensive rebounds, push the ball, and also limit second-chance opportunities.
New Orleans has three guys that average at least five points in the opening 12 minutes of games. Brandon Ingram (6.5), Zion Williamson (5.5), and CJ McCollum (5.2) are the anchors. Jonas Valanciunas, Jordan Hawkins, Herbert Jones, and Trey Murphy III all average over three points. There's a good mix of scoring, and I also like the Pelicans' forward depth going against Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and James Harden.
The Pelicans have the fourth-most efficient first-quarter offense this season. On defense, they are ranked sixth. Los Angeles is second in defensive rating in the first quarter and 16th on offense. Going against the Clippers doesn't seem smart right now, but I think New Orleans can clip them in the opening quarter.
The Pick: Pelicans First Quarter +2.5 (-120 FanDuel)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Cleveland Cavaliers (-10.5) at Washington Wizards (234.5 total)
I'm going to take the Wizards team total under and not overthink this one. Cleveland has been excellent on defense since the start of the new year. In 13 January games, they held nine of those opponents under 110 points. Five of those teams didn't even score 100. In today's NBA, that's crazy. Now, in three February games, they have only given up 101, 101, and 110 points. Per 100 possessions in their last 15 games, Cleveland is holding opponents to an NBA-best 104.6 points per game.
Washington is a bottom-six team this season when it comes to offensive rating. This team has only scored over 110 points in six of their last eight games. I use 110 as a benchmark since all but three teams in the NBA are averaging 110 or more. In their last 10 games, the Wizards are in the bottom five in field goal percentage. From three, they are dead last at 30 percent. It's just not a great spot to be going against this Cavs team that is great at limiting points in the paint and second-chance opportunities.
According to EV Analytics, the Wizards are 29-20 in their team total unders this season.
The Pick: Wizards Team Total Under 111.5 (-115 ESPN BET)
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