RADIO
After a six-game slate Tuesday night, we have a larger 13-game slate to choose from tonight. Pascal Siakam will be making his anticipated return to Toronto when the Pacers take on the Raptors. Two of the later games will feature the Kings going to Denver to face Nikola Jokic and the scorchingly hot Warriors playing host to the Los Angeles Clippers.
On Monday, I managed a 2-1 record, which I was satisfied with. The Spurs covered in the first quarter, and the under easily hit in Bucks vs. Nuggets. Utah failed to win the first half against the Warriors, preventing the sweep. I'll have three more picks tonight and hope to continue a good streak.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, and teasers for the NBA slate that tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST on Wednesday, February 14. Follow me on X, @Jwiesel13.
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NBA Betting Picks: Spreads & ML
Indiana Pacers (-4) at Toronto Raptors (243 total)
I went against the Raptors in the first quarter on Monday night, and I'm going back to it tonight. Indiana is a top-three first-quarter scoring team this season. They are shooting over 51 percent on FGA and nearly 39 percent on threes. The Pacers are first in first-quarter assists and tend to keep the ball moving. Toronto gives up a lot of assists, and I like the Pacers' ability to establish some rhythm on assisted baskets early.
Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton has played 30+ minutes in back-to-back games. Over his last two games, he's averaging 8.2 first-quarter minutes, compared to 7.9 in the last eight games that included a minutes restriction. Tyrese is averaging an NBA-best 3.7 first-quarter assists this season. Pascal Siakam is the Pacers' leading first-quarter scorer.
In 14 games with Indiana, he's averaging 7.0 points and 9.4 minutes in the opening 12 minutes. I really like this because it means Siakam will be aggressive, and he has extra motivation going against his former team. He's scored at least eight first-quarter points in eight of 14 games.
According to EV Analytics, Toronto is 20-33-1 ATS in the first quarter this season. Indiana is a little better at 24-29-3. Toronto averages over three fewer points than Indiana in the first quarter. They also don't shoot well from three and are in the bottom seven in that category.
Neither team's defense is particularly impressive early in games, so I'll side with the clearly better offensive team. The Pacers are also allowing the fewest number of three-point attempts per game in the first quarter. If the offense can show up, they should be able to cover this number.
— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) February 13, 2024
The Pick: Pacers First Quarter -0.5 (-118 FanDuel)
Chicago Bulls (+9.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers (220.5 total)
The Cleveland Cavaliers finally snapped their win streak at nine games when they lost at home to the Sixers on Monday night. It was a pretty shocking loss for the Cavs, who were 11.5-point favorites going into the game. Chicago won on the road in Atlanta on Monday night, thanks to a career-high 29 points from Ayo Dosunmu.
Normally, in this spot, I'd look at a team like Chicago and talk myself into liking some of their pieces. That may be true, but I hate this matchup for them against the Cavs. The Bulls have lost both games against the Cavs this season by a combined 32 points. Cleveland has out-rebounded them 91-80 and 28-11 on the offensive glass. I just think Cleveland has too much size for them, and Chicago started Torrey Craig at power forward Monday night.
I don't love the full-game spread, but I'll take Cleveland in the first half. At home, the Cavs are 7-3 in their last 10 ATS. The Cavs may not shoot great, but they are still 13th in first-half scoring. On defense, this group is allowing the fifth-fewest first-half points among home teams.
For a team that is outsized and doesn't shoot well from three, Chicago should continue to not match up well against the Cavaliers. I'm also factoring in that Cleveland lost that game Monday and is probably eager to right the ship and set the tone. The Cavs outscored the Bulls 60-46 in the first half when they played on December 23. Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Caris LeVert all didn't play in that game.
Just toss it up for the big man!@dariusgarland22 -> @evanmobley | #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/wqYhD7cJpJ
— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) February 13, 2024
The Pick: Cavaliers First Half -4.5 (-120 PointsBet)
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NBA Betting Picks: Totals
Los Angeles Clippers (+3) at Golden State Warriors (237 total)
The play I like here is the under. Golden State is currently on a five-game win streak, and they have allowed 106 points per game over that stretch. They are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. On offense, this team is putting up over 121 points but still only hitting 48.9 percent of their field goals. From three, the Warriors are hitting nearly 42 percent, which is higher than their season average of 37.9 percent.
In their last five games, the Clippers are in the top 12 in both the fewest three-point attempts allowed and the opponent's three-point percentage. Slowing Golden State down from the perimeter is usually the key. Over their last 15 games, L.A. is 11th in points allowed and 16th in defensive efficiency, which is respectable.
The Clippers are putting up 118 points per game and shooting decent percentages, but I love the way the Warriors defense has been playing. Golden State is also in the top 10 for the fewest second-chance points allowed. Both teams rank outside the top 15 in points in the paint and outside the top 10 in pace. Los Angeles is 23rd in pace, while the Warriors sit 12th.
If the Clippers are small favorites, it leads me to believe they think L.A. will dictate the flow of the game. If that's the case, it should be a slowed-down tempo, which is the opposite of what the Warriors want. Kawhi Leonard is out for the Clippers, which is a massive blow. In his last 15 games, Leonard has averaged a team-leading 24.3 points on 65.8 percent true shooting.
Fastbreak KT to end Q3 💨
📺 @NBCSAuthentic pic.twitter.com/AEL8AYdE9V
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) February 13, 2024
The Pick: Under 237 (-105 DraftKings)
Teaser: SAS +17 - CHA +13- MEM +9 (+140 FD) {Buying 6 points}
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