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The last great college football season is underway and Week 3 didn't disappoint! Sacramento State joined the ranks of Fordham and Idaho in picking off FBS teams. The Huskies took the show on the road and blew out a Big Ten (14) team. Iowa scored more than 40 points for the first time in almost two years. Most of the FCS games are out of the way with conference play beginning in earnest this week.
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I lost a little bit last week and am now down two points on the season. Please excuse the mess on the right side of the sheet. I am trying to update it to include my cumulative total for as long as I have done this with the point betting system. I'm going back through years of past articles and updating as I go along. It will be worth it in the end!
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 4 (September 23, 2023)
Rutgers at (2) Michigan (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is off the books at many places and most of the ones that have it are keeping it at 24. It still feels high. Rutgers is 3-0 against the spread this year, mostly because of their defense. Believe it or not, Gavin Wimsatt has made fewer mistakes than J.J. McCarthy against better competition. I'm not saying Rutgers will win this, but I think they hang around. Give me the Knights of the Scarlet variety.
Rutgers looks like the toughest defense Michigan will face to date. RU has 8 players with a sack and 5 with an INT. "The linebackers have done a nice job, and then our safeties have done good things," coach Greg Schiano told me. "The middle of the defense is strong."
— Adam Rittenberg (@ESPNRittenberg) September 22, 2023
(4) Florida State (-1.5) at Clemson
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line opened at +3 for Florida State and I took that action. The 1.5-point spread isn't a deterrent when I like FSU outright anyway.
(16) Oklahoma (-13.5) at Cincinnati
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I want to say that this is high, but the Bearcats just lost the Victory Bell to the Redhawks. BOOMER!
Army at Syracuse (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like spreads this big with Army involved, but Garrett Shrader is a perfect fit in this Syracuse offense. He is showing that while the new age of the transfer portal is fun and all, once said transfer gets into the second and third seasons with their new team, then the sparks really fly. I'll take the Orange.
Auburn at Texas A&M (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Even ESPN can't spin this SEC turd into relevance. This is too low. Give me the Aggies. Average quarterback play and a stagnant run game are big problems for Auburn.
Western Kentucky at Troy (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a tough one. Troy lost to two quality teams in Kansas State and James Madison. The Hilltoppers are still picking up the pieces off the turf in Columbus. Kimani Vidal finally gets to face a team that doesn't have a great run defense. A big game from him should propel Troy to a cover.
Kentucky (-13.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels low. Vanderbilt has been horrible. That UNLV game was one of the most fun games that I have watched this season, but it doesn't mean it was filled with good football. Quite the contrary. Give me Big Blue.
Virginia Tech at Marshall (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was hoping that Marshall wouldn't be favored, but they definitely deserve to be. A huge game from Rasheen Ali should spell a cover for the Herd.
SMU at TCU (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Iron Skillet Rivalry week is here!
And SMU TE RJ Maryland is filling in the new players on the squad about how important the game is.
“We gotta teach them to have something against purple. Just make something up if you have to. We have our own reasons why we don’t like TCU.” pic.twitter.com/cSAz5xwm8w
— Jacob Richman (@JacobHRichman) September 19, 2023
Do you think this game doesn't matter? Regional rivalries matter and college football is hell-bent on making everything as vanilla as the NFL. Screw you bozos! We need more Skillet-like games! The Toadies are at home and the spread is under a touchdown. I like those odds. Give me TCU.
SMU left behind more than a goose egg in November 2000 when TCU beat them 21-0. The SMU band during halftime dropped rye grass seed on TCU’s football field. By February, the seeds sprouted into a large diamond shaped "M", the band's trademark formation. #IronSkillet #SWCrivalry pic.twitter.com/RTmCuqdGZJ
— SWCfootballNow ??☠️ (@SWCfootballNow) September 22, 2023
Tulsa at Northern Illinois (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tulsa is still beaming from former quarterback Davis Brin throwing five picks against Wisconsin last week. They didn't dodge a bullet. Braylon Braxton is still hurt and Tulsa has no offense. Give me the Huskies.
Western Michigan at Toledo (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We finally have some MACtion! A MAC team didn't take down a Big Ten(14) foe this year, but dammit, Toledo tried. Give me the Rockets.
Georgia Southern (-6.5) at Ball State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Davis Brin should have a much better day this week. Still, Ball State's losses are to Kentucky and Georgia and only one of them covered. I like the Cardinals at home.
(19) Colorado at (10) Oregon (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I didn't like this spread to begin with, but now that it's up over three touchdowns, I'm definitely not taking Oregon. I don't think Colorado wins, but what evidence do we have that they're going to get blown out? The defense hasn't been that bad, but they are going to miss Travis Hunter. This is not your typical Colorado team of the last 20 years. They have some self-respect this year.
(22) UCLA at (11) Utah (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Thursday has come and gone and still no update on Utah's Cameron Rising. Brant Kuithe still missing from the offense is a mere inconvenience since Thomas Yassmin is a great fill-in. Does Utah need Rising to win this? Not at home.
Utah QB Cameron Rising on his weekly radio spot on ESPN Radio Salt Lake City, “It’s been going good. I’m feeling as good as I’ve felt since getting hurt… I’m definitely getting that feel back.”@NPHSAthletic @NPPanthersONE
— Joe Curley (@vcsjoecurley) September 21, 2023
I'm taking the Utes regardless, but Rising's comments earlier in the week and the fact that he has been practicing and warming up for two weeks have me thinking he will. If that's the case, this is too low and I'm betting accordingly.
(15) Mississippi at (13) Alabama (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Alabama's shell game at quarterback worked. The line has cratered so Nick Saban can use this as fuel. Ole Miss has the offense to win this game, and if it were in Oxford, I might take them. However, I don't think the defense holds up and Jalen Milroe is going to prove that he's the man for the job. Give me Bama.
(18) Duke (-22.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's just weird seeing Duke in Hartford without a round ball involved. The marketer in me says that both teams are making a big mistake in not having a Duke/UConn basketball scrimmage on either Friday night or Saturday night to help hype this game. You know...make a weekend out of it. Give me Duke, but I'm not touching this.
(20) Miami (FL) (-23.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Someone missed the memo that Temple has a good defense. Vegas knows what I know. Dominating stats against below-average teams doesn't make you good. Give me Miami.
Florida Atlantic at Illinois (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has taken off and is as high as -17 in spots. If you want the Illini side, I suggest you grab it now, as I did. If it gets over 17, wouldn't bet it at all. I still like Illinois here though.
Maryland (-7.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I'm old enough to remember Sparty getting blasted at home by Washington. Maryland is Washington lite. I'm really happy with no juice on the 7.5 at Caesars. Get it while you can! Terps win BIG!
Louisiana Tech at Nebraska (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't like this line at all. I am staying far away from this. Nebraska running backs Rahmir Johnson and Gabe Ervin are out for the season. Quarterback Jeff Sims is questionable, but the fans don't want him anyway (Nebraska is a fickle place sometimes). Tech quarterback and Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier is also questionable. This line suggests that Vegas doesn't think he'll play. If he doesn't, I smell blowout. The Nebraska defense is really good when not put in continuous bad spots by the offense. Nebraska is the safe bet, but as I said, I'm not touching this. There are way too many unknowns.
Boston College at Louisville (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Jawhar Jordan is going to have a big game here, but so is Thomas Castellanos. Lousiville didn't cover Tech or a toothless Indiana offense by anywhere near this. This line is way too high. Give me BC.
BYU at Kansas (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Nope. I don't buy this at all! BYU just beat the Hogs in Fayetteville. Are we really saying that Kansas is 17 points better than Arkansas without Raheim Sanders? Really?
?️ Flashback to the only previous meeting between @KU_Football - BYU
1992 Aloha Bowl: Kansas 23, BYU 20 pic.twitter.com/RO0buQz5b4
— Kansas Jayhawks (@KUAthletics) September 22, 2023
Man, I love the new Big 12(14). I wish it would last more than one year. If I didn't have tickets to the Nebraska game, I would drive down to Lawrence for this one. It's going to be a fun one, but neither team is winning by double-digits. Give me BYU.
Texas Tech (-5.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I would like this a lot more if we had a status report on West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene. I tend to think that Wyoming is a lot better than we think and Tech hung with Oregon. I liked the Tech side of this anyway. If Greene doesn't play, this is too easy. Judging by the line, Vegas thinks he will, so I'm not going crazy with this.
New Mexico at Massachusetts (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
UNCLE!!! No one should be forced into this! Give me UMass, I guess...
Ohio (-12.5) at Bowling Green
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels like a big number on the road, especially when this game should be a defensive battle. Give me the Falcons.
UTSA at (23) Tennessee (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Frank Harris was cleared by doctors last week, but the turf toe flared before kickoff in the loss to Army. I could argue that De'Corian Clark is a more important piece for UTSA. At any rate, this feels too high. I expect a lot of points since both defenses are suspect. I'll take the Roadrunners.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Both teams are hot garbage, but at least Iowa State plays defense. Give me the Cyclones.
Rice (-2.5) at South Florida
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
No love for the Bulls after surviving Alabama's open quarterback audition? Okay then. I like Byrum Brown and he's a ton of fun to watch, but the Bulls have too many issues at the other positions to win this. I'll take Rice.
Eastern Michigan at Jacksonville State (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Apparently, Vegas feels the same way about the Eagles as I do. I'm game. Give me the Gamecocks.
Central Michigan at South Alabama (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Jags are a secret no more. This feels a little high, but I trust that offense behind Carter Bradley and La'Damian Webb. Give me USA.
Liberty (-9.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Keyone Jenkins wants to be Kaidon Salter when he grows up. Give me Liberty (or give me death!)
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place. It opened at -6.5 and is down to -2.5 in some spots while still as high as -5.5 in others. I hate this much play in a line. Wake almost lost to a quality Old Dominion team and Haynes King makes Tech a possible bowl team. I'll take Wake at home, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.
Arkansas at (12) LSU (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Hogs just lost to a team that leads FBS in the number of punts. Everything in me says LSU is going to win going away, but weird things happen in this rivalry. I'll take Arkansas and the points, but I don't think they win.
Didn't the LSU/Arkansas game used to be around Thanksgiving? I like traditional games and dates. Society is collapsing.
— Allen K. (@AllenK_81) September 21, 2023
(14) Oregon State (-3.5) at (21) Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I trust Cameron Ward in his second year of the Washington State system more than I trust DJ Uiagalelei in month two at Oregon State. I still take the Cougars outright.
Charlotte at (25) Florida (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Give me Florida, but I'm not touching this.
Sam Houston at Houston (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bearkats have one of the better defenses in FBS already, but the offense hasn't caught up. I'll take SHSU to not get covered here. Houston has a way of screwing things up...
Colorado State at Middle Tennessee State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I really like the way that Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi looked against Colorado. If he can survive in the center ring in that circus, he can handle Murfreesboro. Give me the Rams outright.
Arizona (-12.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Arizona has playmakers. Stanford has a loss to Sacramento State on the farm. Give me the Wildcats.
Appalachian State at Wyoming (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don’t think there are more similar fan bases that are destined to get along better than Appalachian State and Wyoming fans! Bills Mafia is in town too
Welcome to Laramie! ?
— Fake Wyo Sports (@FakeWYOSports) September 22, 2023
Paraphrasing Mick Dundee here: "That's not a mountain. THIS is a mountain." Where has this game been all my life? This is going to be great! I don't even want to bet on this. I just want to enjoy the hell out of it! App State was carved up by Omarion Hampton a couple of weeks ago and Harrison Waylee is the back that Wyoming needs. I'll take App State because of the multiple dimensions of the offense.
Southern Mississippi (-5.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If Frank Gore Jr.'s draft stock is ever going to make a recovery, it needs to start here. Give me the Eagles.
Nevada at Texas State (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Pack abused the Bobcats in that short-lived version of the WAC. The Bobcats get revenge, but probably not by this much. Give me Nevada.
UAB at (1) Georgia (-41.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Come on...Georgia hasn't covered this yet, has no interest in covering this, and UAB isn't that bad. Give me the Blazers. I'll say 38-3 or so.
(3) Texas (-14.5) at Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
after a more in-depth look at the baylor club mannequin… THE FINGERS ARE BROKEN CLEAN OFF.
this isn’t a replacement hand they rolled in this week or a rock-and-roll. this is war.
a mannequin ruined in the name of texas hate. pic.twitter.com/sjfeINWGxt
— drake c. toll, weekdays on ESPN central texas (@drakectoll) September 22, 2023
These teams have played every year for almost a century. I'm going to miss this rivalry, ruined in the name of Texas greed. This is a hell of a way to go out. If only Baylor had a football team capable of keeping up... Give me Texas.
(6) Ohio State (-3.5) at (9) Notre Dame
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm really going to miss the playoff games during the middle of the season. A game like this won't matter next year when both teams still make the playoffs. If the Irish are getting in this year, they have to have this one. I think they get it with Sam Hartman. Irish outright.
(24) Iowa at (7) Penn State (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line got goosed by a cattle prod. It's up four points already and has gone up another half in two places. That Iowa defense is legit. They are going to ugly this game up. Penn State could win by 14 and it could feel like 40. Iowa's not getting covered, but I don't expect a win either.
Akron at Indiana (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Last Chance Saloon for the MAC against the Big Ten(14). This ain't it. Indiana wins but doesn't cover.
Memphis vs. Missouri (-6.5) at St. Louis
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
If you've ever driven I-70 from Columbia to St. Louis, you know how many Mizzou billboards...HUGE Mizzou billboards...are there. This has the illusion of a neutral site – and how I wish this was at Faurot Field – but make no mistake about it. This is Mizzou territory. Tigers win BIG!
Minnesota (-11.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is going to be a very boring game. Give me Minnesota. I'm only going to watch it because I'm an addict, okay? You don't have to be like me...
Mississippi State at South Carolina (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The magic of Mike Leach is gone. Will Rogers is just another quarterback and Starkville is just another small town in the South. Give me the Cocks.
Buffalo at Louisiana (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm nabbing this while I still can at -9.5. Louisiana rolls!
(17) North Carolina (-7.5) at Pittsburgh
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Don't let ESPN (or Vegas, for that matter) hornswaggle you into thinking this is a good game. It's not. Pitt is something that rhymes with Pitt and UNC might win the ACC. Tarheels by 90! Okay...maybe not 90, but maybe half that. Phil Jurkovec is an absolute disaster right now.
Central Florida at Kansas State (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What could have been a really fun game loses some luster. John Rhys Plumlee is out. Will Howard is questionable. Unfortunately for UCF, DJ Giddens is still healthy. I'll take K-State.
James Madison (-4.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Dukes' tour of the United States to prove how good they are heads West. Aggieville is going to wish they hadn't. Give me the Dukes.
UNLV (-2.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UNLV beating Vanderbilt was an impressive win. I'll take the Rebels.
(5) USC (-34.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Let's see...Fresno just beat Sparky in Tempe by 29. USC only needs to beat them by six more? Seems legit... USC by A LOT!
California at (8) Washington (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Hey, don't go to bed yet! Watching Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams after dark will be worth it. You Heisman voters need to sacrifice sleep so you can see firsthand that Penix is at least as good as Williams. Give me Washington.
Kent State at Fresno State (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yikes. Give me Fresno, but not everyone is going to gift them a game like Sparky did.
New Mexico State at Hawaii (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm not touching this. New Mexico State is showing signs of life. They are the better team on paper, but Hawaii on the islands is a different animal. Give me Hawaii, I guess.
There are 63 total FBS vs. FBS games this weekend. This is very close to a full workload. I felt good about last week, and look how that turned out. We've got some good ones here. So many that I lived more on the threes (22) than the twos (21). I stayed consistent with eight minimum bets. I went heavier with nine four-point bets. I only maxed out three this week after going 2-2 last week. Good luck out there!
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