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The toughest decision you might have to make in your fantasy baseball draft is when to target a bullpen arm. Securing those saves in a roto league could be the difference between winning or losing a week. So, is it worth it to spend a fifth- or sixth-round pick on Houston Astros closer Josh Hader?
There's no doubt Hader will have a fantastic year and is easily the best fantasy closer in the American League. However, players like Tarik Skubal, Mike Trout, and Logan Gilbert all have similar average draft positions (ADP). That makes it hard to select the Astros closer.
Selecting an elite bullpen arm early could be a great strategy for some fantasy managers, but for others, it's not. If you fall under the latter category, here are three American League bullpen arms you could select instead later in fantasy baseball drafts.
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Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays relief pitcher Jordan Romano is not necessarily going later in drafts, but he is a great value pick in the eighth to ninth round. Romano is one of the most consistent closers in the game and plays on a Blue Jays team that should win around 90 games in 2024. That should give the veteran plenty of save chances.
Last year, Romano finished with a 2.90 ERA, 36 saves, and 72 strikeouts across 59 innings pitched. In what was considered a down year for him with a 2.90 ERA, the 30-year-old still saved 36 games for the second consecutive season. He also ranked in the top half of the league in several categories, including batting average against (.214), chase rate (33.2%), whiff rate (35.9%), and strikeout rate (29%).
Posting random Blue Jays highlights until Opening Day: Day 87/175:
Jordan Romano strikes out Steven Kwan for the last out of the game! (August 13, 2022) pic.twitter.com/8pKXaGfx0O
— BlueJays Muse (@BlueJays_Muse) January 1, 2024
If you don't want to spend a fifth- or sixth-round pick on a closer, Romano could be a great pivot. He has 95 combined saves over the past three years (fourth most in that span) with a 2.37 ERA. He's the seventh relief pitcher off the board in drafts, which seems low for a closer guaranteed to have over 35 saves.
Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners relief pitcher Andres Munoz has shown a lot of potential over the past two years. He has a 2.68 ERA combined over the 2022 and 2023 seasons with 17 saves and 163 strikeouts across 114 IP. Now, entering the season as the Mariners' full-time closer, Munoz could be in store for his best season yet.
Before closer Paul Sewald was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Munoz was Seattle's setup man. However, after Sewald was traded in late July, Munoz fully embraced the closer role. He had 11 saves over the final two months with a 2.96 ERA. On the year, the flame-throwing right-hander had a 2.94 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 49 IP.
Munoz will not only be key for saves, but his strikeout numbers will also be a massive boost in 2024. He has a career 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings and posted elite numbers in several categories last year. His expected ERA (2.97), expected batting average against (.205), expected slugging (.287), whiff rate (39.4%), and strikeout rate (31.8%) all ranked in the top 9% in baseball.
Andrés Muñoz's slider is NASTY 🤭 @Mariners pic.twitter.com/gLL42RR9Rq
— B/R Walk-Off (@BRWalkoff) February 29, 2024
Munoz posted solid numbers last year and could be in store for a better season in 2024. He is expected to be the closer on a Mariners team that has won at least 88 games in three straight seasons. That will give the 25-year-old plenty of save opportunities, which makes his 114.8 ADP a bargain.
Alex Lange, Detroit Tigers
It was a season of two halves for Detroit Tigers relief pitcher Alex Lange in 2023. In his first 24 appearances, he had a 1.11 ERA, 10 saves, one blown save, and 34 strikeouts across 24.1 IP. However, over the final 43 games, Lange had a 5.18 ERA, 16 saves, five blown saves, and 45 strikeouts across 41.2 IP.
Lange was almost perfect to start the season, but things changed for him in early June. The walks were a large reason for that, as his 15.6% walk rate ranked in the bottom 1%. With the rough second half, the 28-year-old will likely have a short leash this year, especially with the Tigers signing Andrew Chafin this offseason.
However, there is potential for Lange to be a reliable closer in 2024 -- if he can limit the walks. His expected batting average against (.206), chase rate (31.7%), whiff rate (39.1%), and strikeout rate (27.4%) all ranked toward the top of the league last season.
Dan Petry caught up with Tigers reliever Alex Lange after Lange struck out two in a scoreless inning tonight.#TigersST | @MGLifeOutside @Lange_17 pic.twitter.com/L9hyCuczrq
— Bally Sports Detroit (@BallySportsDET) March 8, 2024
Lange is a riskier option in 2024 drafts because of his poor second half. If he can limit the walks, though, there's a strong chance he can be a reliable option for your fantasy team. In 2023, the right-hander had 34 games where he allowed zero walks and 33 games where he issued one walk or more. In those 34 games with no walks, he allowed an earned run in just four of those contests.
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