Are You For Real? Surprising SP Starts from Week 5

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers, or simply mirages.

Welcome to the 2021 edition of "Are You For Real?" This is a weekly column where we dissect surprisingly good starts from under-rostered and unheralded hurlers to try and determine whether they can maintain their performance or if it was just a flash in the pan.

With April behind us, the numbers are beginning to feel more real as we start the long haul towards a fantasy championship. This week we're looking at three pitchers that got off to rough April starts, but have shown signs of turning it around. Veteran lefty Madison Bumgarner has strung together three straight good starts, while White Sox righty Dylan Cease put up the best start of his career this past week. Angels right-hander Griffin Canning, like Dylan Cease, struck out nine in a dominating performance worthy of a second look.

Roster percentages quoted in this piece are based on Yahoo availability and are accurate as of 05/3/2021.

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Madison Bumgarner, Arizona Diamondbacks

45% Rostered

2020 Stats: 41.2 IP, 6.48 ERA, 7.18 FIP, 2.31 K/BB ratio

04/30 vs. COL: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Bumgarner’s debut in the desert was anything but inspiring. The left-handed posted a career-worst 6.48 ERA, and somehow managed to have a FIP even higher. He also had a higher HR/9 (2.81) than K/BB ratio (2.31), a rare feat accomplished only by the most calamitous of pitching seasons. The final numbers probably had the Diamondbacks wondering if they could get a refund on the 5-year, $85 million dollar deal they inked with Bumgarner ahead of the 2020 season, a signing so bizarre I theorize that ex-Dbacks GM Dave Stewart snuck into the office late at night to finalize the deal, sticking it to his former employer with one last albatross contract. 2021 was shaping up to be more of the same, with Bumgarner surrendering 17 earned runs in his three first starts. Bumgarner flipped the script in a hurry, and has surrendered just two runs and six hits over his last three starts. With fantasy teams desperate for pitching Bumgarner’s familiar name and strong history make him a tempting waiver wire add, but is it all a façade? Is this a washed-up pitcher riding a wave of luck, or is Mason Saunders ready to ride again?

The most glaring problem for Bumgarner in 2020 was his fastball velocity. He was never a fireballer, but Bumgarner’s fastball puttered in at just 88.4 MPH in 2020, the lowest of his career by 2.5 MPH and the seventh-lowest among all pitchers who threw at least 40 innings last season. Hitters’ eyes got big when Bumgarner threw a fastball, as opponents hit .274 with a .548 SLG in 2020. Bumgarner was lucky the damage wasn’t worse, as batters had a .322 xBA and .717 xSLG against the pitch, along with a 91.3 MPH average exit velocity. Bumgarner threw it in at 88 MPH, and batters sent it back 3 full MPH harder. Ouch.

His famous cutter didn’t fare any better, as batters hit .288 with a .667 SLG against Madbum’s signature pitch. While the velocity didn’t dip too much on the cutter, Bumgarner lost over an inch of break and inch of drop with the pitch. To be the pitcher he once was, Bumgarner needs to regain his velocity and movement, and it looks like that’s exactly what he’s doing. Let’s compare one of Bumgarner’s cutters from this season (top) to one of his from last year (bottom), because the difference is stark.

He went from tossing in an 83 MPH cookie to a sharp, effective 87 MPH cutter. In addition to the velocity gains, he also regained nearly an inch of break with the pitch over his last three starts. The cutter may not be the same pitch we saw in the mid-2010s when Bumgarner was one of baseball’s premier pitchers, but it’s definitely an improvement over last season.

Bumgarner’s cutter and fastball velocity have correlated strongly with his performance, as he was throwing around 89-90 MPH during his first three miserable starts, but has averaged over 91 MPH in his last three stellar starts. Madbum looked like he was toast last season, but the sudden and sharp dip in velocity points to injury rather than natural velocity reduction with age. He was only 30 years old, and the drop was abrupt rather than a steady decline. There is reason to be concerned about injuries or an early decline for Bumgarner. He did miss time with a back strain last year, and everyone remembers his infamous dirt bike accident in 2017. And lets not forget that there are over 1900 MLB innings on this arm. A good comparison for Bumgarner might be Felix Hernandez. Hernandez was one of the best pitchers in baseball, but completely lost his effectiveness once he entered his 30s. Hernandez also debuted at 19 and had big workloads in his 20s, which lead to a premature decline in velocity and effectiveness.

Because Bumgarner’s velocity is up and his pitches look better, I’m not ready to hammer the nails in the coffin yet. In fact, I think’s he gone from a pitcher I load up hitters against to a streamable option. Obviously, his days as a fantasy ace are long gone, but he posted a 3.57 ERA, 3.94 FIP, and 3.9 K/BB ratio between 2017-19 following the dirt bike accident. I don’t know if he’s capable of that anymore, but a sub-4 ERA is certainly possible. He could be good in an Adam Wainwright type of way. That is to say he’s not exciting and doesn’t provide great strikeout numbers, but could be an innings-eater that's effective in solid matchups. He’s only gone more than five innings once so far, but I have to imagine he starts pitching deeper into games, if for no other reason than the Dbacks want to get their money’s worth from his bloated salary.

While I like what I’ve seen from him over the last three starts, if his velocity starts to dip again, I would jump ship in a heartbeat, even if he is still getting solid results. He has the potential to drop an atom bomb on your ERA and WHIP. He’s allowed five or more earned runs in six of his 15 starts with Arizona. If things continue, I would dangle Bumgarner’s name in trade offers. With most teams in need of pitching and Bumgarner’s familiar name, he could net a decent struggling player in return. Some players that come to mind are Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith, Kyle Lewis, and Dansby Swanson. Not superstars, but players who are probably frustrating their managers and will likely improve their performance as the year continues.

Verdict:

Bumgarner’s fastball velocity and cutter movement has improved compared to last season and over his last three starts. His performance hinges rather heavily on these things, so I think he can be a solid streaming option as long as he can maintain this velocity. If things take a downturn, I would be looking to dump Bumgarner in a hurry. As it lines up, his next two starts are against the Marlins, one in Miami and one at home, and Bumgarner should be started in those matchups.

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

30% Rostered

2020 Stats: 58.1 IP, 4.01 ERA, 6.36 FIP, 1.29 K/BB ratio

04/29 vs. DET: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

The perplexity surrounding Dylan will not Cease, as the volatile young right-hander showed us what he can do at his best last Thursday, throwing a shortened complete-game shutout with nine strikeouts for what is arguably the best start of his career. Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Cease was a big fat donut in the walks column, as Cease had issued three free passes in each of his first four starts preceding this game. Walks have long been an issue for Cease, and they are one of the biggest reasons Cease had the second-highest FIP among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings last season. Despite his woes, Cease’s raw stuff is solid, and with new White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz touted as the miracle worker behind Lucas Giolito’s breakout, many were hopeful Cease would turn a corner in 2021. He got off to a rocky start, but could Cease finally come around when his team and fantasy owners need him the most?

Cease has often teetered on the line of being “effectively wild”, and more often than not finds himself on the wrong side of that line. He’s gotten away with the walks to this point because his stuff is so tantalizing. Cease averages 96.5 MPH with his four-seam fastball and can top out at 98 MPH, as he did in his most recent start. He also wields slider and a curveball as two strong breaking balls and a show-me changeup he’s used about 6% of the time this year. While his blazing fastball can be eye-popping, what Cease has done with his slider is even more interesting. This pitch could be the key to unlocking the next level for Cease.

Cease’s slider had always been his best swing-and-miss pitch, but he’s made some changes for the better in 2021. He’s throwing the pitch harder, averaging 85.9 MPH with his slider, nearly a full MPH higher than it was last season. He’s also gained four inches of drop and an inch of break with his slider. Let’s take a look at a slider from this start.

That’s a tough pitch for old man Cabrera to handle, and seeing Cease locate the pitch away from a right-hander is a good sign. He’s lowered his zone rate with the pitch every season he’s been in the majors, and he’s really avoided the middle of the zone with his slider in 2021. Below is a heatmap comparison of the slider from 2021 (top) and 2020 (bottom).

He’s putting the slider exactly where he needs to, away from right-handers, and that could be an indicator of command gains for Cease. He’s still issuing a lot of walks, but he should be able to maintain these strikeout gains if he can locate his breaking balls like this going forward.

The difference with his slider is noticeable in the results as well, as Cease raised the swinging strike rate on his slider to 19.2% and the chase rate to 35%, both career bests. Cease has been a little unlucky when it comes to batted balls on his slider, as six of the seven hits against his slider have been singles. Opponents are hitting .241 against the slider, but they have a .174 xBA and a 76.7 MPH average exit velocity. Overall, Cease’s .317 BABIP should come down, especially because he has strong fly ball tendencies and fly balls have the lowest BABIP of any batted ball type.

Speaking of strong fly ball tendencies, now might be a good time to throw a little cold water on the Dylan Cease hype. His fastball-slider combination should increase his strikeout rate, but Cease still carries some large flaws that won’t be corrected overnight. He’s been victimized by the long ball throughout his major league career, allowing 1.85 HR/9 between 2019-2020. He’s trimmed that down to 0.74 HR/9 this season, but he’s mainly coasting on a 7.7% HR/FB ratio. That probably won’t last, and Cease will certainly regress towards his previous numbers, though he might not go all the way back to 1.85 HR/9. He’s also still issuing far too many walks, and while he had zero in this start, he was also facing a free-swinging Detroit lineup that has the fourth-lowest walk rate in MLB heading into play Sunday. There’s enough here to be interested by Cease, but I hesitate to buy in after one good start against one of the worst teams in baseball.

Verdict:

Cease has made velocity and movement improvements with his slider, which should give him a boost in strikeout potential as he pairs the pitch with an above average velocity fastball. Walks and home runs look like they could still be a problem for Cease and he’s probably still a work-in-progress, rather than a breakout ready to pop. His next two starts are in Cincinnati and home against the Twins, two top-10 offenses. He’s probably best left on the bench for those outings as he hasn't earned our trust in tough matchups yet, but I'm still keeping an eye on Cease.

Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels

10% Rostered

2020 Stats: 56.1 IP, 3.99 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 2.43 K/BB ratio

05/01 @ SEA: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 9 K

The 2021 season had been a disaster for Canning heading into this start, as the young righty owned an 8.40 ERA and 7.06 FIP through his first four starts. He also surrendered six home runs in those four starts, after allowing just eight home runs all of last season. Canning needed to show up to keep his rotation spot and he showed up big, striking out nine batters and allowing just one unearned run en route to his second win of the season. This start showcased the talent we know lurks inside Canning, but can the Halos’ starter keep up the holy performance?

Canning boasts a four-pitch repertoire consisting of a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. The fastball has above average velocity at 93.8 MPH, and can top out at 95 MPH. Canning’s trio of secondary pitches are all solid, but the slider is the gem of the arsenal. Pitch tracking websites often show a disparity in classification with Canning’s slider, sometimes calling it a cutter, sometimes calling it a curveball, and sometimes calling it a slider, but for the purposes of this piece I will refer to Canning’s primary breaking ball as a slider.

What’s in a name? That which we call a rose by any other name would smell just as sweet, and man Canning’s slider is sweet. It’s more of a slider-knuckle curve hybrid, as it’s harder than a traditional curveball at 86-88 MPH, but has more drastic, arching break than a traditional slider. Here’s an example of the pitch from this start.

That’s so dirty Pee-Wee Herman would go see it in a movie theater. A 90 MPH slurve with arching break away from right-handed batters. When it’s on, it’s nigh impossible to hit, and there’s nothing more Ty France can do but wave the white flag at that one. The slider was on in this start too, as Canning racked up eight whiffs with the pitch for a whopping 67% whiff rate, which is about as best you might see on 20 or more pitches in an individual game. Overall, Canning carved up the Mariners for 24 whiffs and a 50% whiff rate in this game. Any time I see more than 20 whiffs in a game it’s eye-popping, but 24 in just 5.1 innings is downright incredible.

Obviously, Canning won’t be able to maintain a whiff rate this high over all starts. The list of people who can is very, very short. Between his mid-90s fastball, slider/slurve, above average changeup, and occasional slower curve, Canning has all the makings of a strikeout pitcher. With such a deep repertoire, Canning looks like the real deal. So why is he still so inconsistent? It’s a tale as old as time, or as old as baseball anyway. Canning, like many young pitchers, struggles with control and has experienced home run problems in the majors.

What’s funny about Canning’s chronic gopheritis is that he never had home run issues as minor leaguer. He’s never allowed more than 1.0 HR/9 in the minors, but has a career 1.51 HR/9 in the majors. He debuted in 2019, which was coincidentally the first full “juiced ball” season, so perhaps Canning was a victim to MLB’s attempt at increasing offense. He’s had particular trouble with his fastball, as batters have a .563 SLG against the pitch in his career. That can be attributed to a career 57.7% flyball rate with the pitch. He also has a stomach-churning 94.6 MPH average exit velocity against his fastball in his career, and while that’s higher than normal for Canning, the exit velocity has hovered around 89 MPH in previous seasons.

Canning has used the fastball in the mid-to-high part of the strike zone, which can be a good location for swings-and-misses and popups, but it’s dangerous territory against big league hitters, especially in the juiced ball and launch angle era. His current HR/FB ratio of 28.6% will certainly go down, but don’t expect a league average home run rate from him. His fly ball tendencies will ensure Canning gives up homers, and I wouldn’t expect his final ERA to be as low as his current 3.38 xFIP.

Control has also been an issue for Canning as a big leaguer, and it, along with home runs, has been his undoing in the bad starts. Canning had just a 23.3% zone rate two outings ago against Texas, and had a meager 14.3% zone rate during his 6-run drubbing by the Astros in his start before this one. Canning is a talented pitcher, and I think he’ll be a solid rotation piece in the near future, but he’s still going to take some lumps. I do think he should be rostered in leagues deeper than 12 teams, and he is a high-end streamer in shallow leagues due to his strikeout upside. I would avoid him in hitter-friendly ballparks if possible, and against power hitting lineups.

Verdict:

Canning’s got above average fastball velocity, and a killer breaking ball with his slider-knuckle curve hybrid. He has a solid changeup and traditional curveball to mix in, giving him a deep repertoire fitting of a starting pitcher. His fly ball tendencies mean that Canning will struggle with the long ball at times, and his sometimes wavering control makes it difficult for Canning to find consistent success. I’m very encouraged in Canning’s talent, and is a pitcher I’ve watched with great interest over his short career, but he’s not quite there yet in terms of being an every-turn starter for fantasy. He’s still worth an add in leagues deeper than 12 teams, and worth a speculative add in 12 or 10 team leagues if you can afford the roster spot. He’s streamable in his next start at home against Tampa Bay, but I would avoid him in the following start at Houston.

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