Fact or Fiction: Fantasy Football Outlooks for C.J. Stroud, Rico Dowdle, Kareem Hunt, Kendrick Bourne, A.J. Barner

by Justin Carter

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Justin's fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 6 of 2025. He looks at surprising performances from C.J. Stroud, Rico Dowdle, Kareem Hunt, Kendrick Bourne, A.J. Barner.

Welcome back to our fantasy football series, Fact of Fiction. We're heading into Week 6 of the NFL season now after a Week 5 that seemed to feature either close games or blowouts exclusively. Some of those games led to surprise names at the top of this week's fantasy scoring leaderboard.

That includes Panthers running back Rico Dowdle, who became the most recent surprise 200-yard rusher as the Panthers ran all over the Dolphins, resulting in Carolina sneaking away with a 27-24 victory. Can Dowdle do it again when he faces his former team in Week 6?

Every week, I'll examine five NFL players whose numbers from the previous week were better than expected. I'll analyze their games and consider their showings in the larger scheme. Below, you'll find my analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 5. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e., a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e., an anomalous result?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans

Week 5 stats: 23-for-27 for 244 yards and four touchdowns -- overall QB1

One of the weirdest storylines so far this season is how the Ravens' defense has just completely fallen off a cliff, with the team allowing an absurd 35.4 points per game through five weeks. That is a far cry from how the defense played in past seasons.

Ravens points/game allowed:
2017: 18.9
2018: 17.9
2019: 17.6
2020: 18.9
2021: 23.1
2022: 18.5
2023: 16.5
2024: 21.2
2025: 35.4

— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) October 5, 2025

I bring that up to say that Houston Texans quarterback Stroud's massive game on Sunday might need to come with an asterisk.

Stroud was 23-for-27 for 244 yards and four touchdowns in the 44-10 victory. It was his highest completion percentage of the season, most yards of the season, and most touchdowns of the season. It was also just the second time that Stroud has thrown multiple touchdown passes this year.

Despite the offensive explosion from Houston, I remain concerned about Stroud's production going forward. He's played his two best games of the season in consecutive weeks, but those games were against the Titans and then a version of the Ravens that feels like a sparkling water flavor: Essence of Raven, or something like that.

How much can we really take away from those games, especially when we've seen how bad this pass protection tends to be against better teams?

You should feel better about Stroud right now, and the fact that Houston has a bye now gives the team time to figure things out even more, but I'd still be hesitant to fire him up come Week 7 against the Seahawks.

Verdict: He won't play Baltimore every week, but Stroud is on the rise

Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers

Week 5 stats: 23 carries for 206 yards and one touchdown, three catches for 28 yards -- overall RB1

This was the single-most baffling performance of the week. Carolina Panthers running back Dowdle entered the week averaging 20.8 rushing yards per game. He hadn't even eclipsed the 100-yard mark yet on the season.

Against the Dolphins, though, Dowdle was unstoppable, carrying the ball 23 times for 206 yards and one touchdown. With starting running back Chuba Hubbard sidelined by a calf injury, Dowdle had the kind of explosive game that running backs dream of having.

It was a fun showing from Dowdle, but fantasy managers don't need to get used to it. For one, Hubbard's injury doesn't seem like the kind that will keep him sidelined for too long. He played through the calf issue back in Week 4 before sitting in Week 5. Maybe the Panthers let him rest up an extra week or two since they'll be convinced they can survive with Dowdle as the lead back, but Hubbard won't be out forever. When he returns, he'll have a role.

Still, there's short-term value here. Dowdle is a must-play until Hubbard returns, and it helps that this weekend he's set to face his former team, the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the 10th-most rushing yards in the league this season, potentially setting Dowdle up for a solid revenge game. I know the "revenge game" narrative is overused, but Dowdle seems to be playing into it.

Former Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle said Dallas defenders need to “buckle up” this Sunday.

Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer: “We’re gonna bring our seatbelts, Rico. We’ll buckle up.” pic.twitter.com/UvHUYzwlsf

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) October 6, 2025

Note, though, that I said "solid." I'd be thinking something like 75 yards and a touchdown, not another 200-yard showing. It should go without saying, but I'll say it for clarity's sake: Dowdle won't rush for 200 yards again this year.

Verdict: Fiction, but I like him against his old team in Week 6

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Week 5 stats: seven carries for 49 yards and two touchdowns, one catch for eight yards -- overall RB8

It's become clear that Isiah Pacheco isn't the same guy anymore. In theory, that revelation would help the team's No. 2 running back, Hunt, but, uhh...that wasn't what happened in Week 5. Hunt played his fewest snaps of the season, both by overall number (21) and snap rate (32.8 percent).

Meanwhile, Pacheco's 62.5 percent snap rate was his highest of 2025, and rookie Brashard Smith, who people thought deserved more work, played just six offensive snaps.

I bring all that up to illustrate that the Chiefs' backfield is confusing right now, so fantasy managers shouldn't read too much into the fact that Hunt scored two touchdowns on Monday night.

Sure, red zone touches are good to see, but until the Chiefs finally give up on Pacheco, Hunt's not going to get enough work to be a consistent fantasy contributor. He also stands in danger of being passed over for Smith once the rookie gets more comfortable playing running back in the NFL. So while it was a good game for Hunt, it probably wasn't a sign of things to come.

Verdict: Fiction

Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Week 5 stats: 10 catches for 142 yards -- overall WR9

The injury-riddled 49ers signed Bourne after he was waived by New England, and his first three games in a 49ers jersey were fairly quiet as his best showing was a four-catch, 38-yard effort against the Cardinals.

That changed in Week 5, though, as Bourne was targeted 11 times in the overtime victory against the Rams, catching 10 of those balls for 142 yards.

"Being back has been fun."

Fresh off 10 catches for 142 yards, @49ers WR Kendrick Bourne stopped by The Insiders with @TomPelissero to talk about going back to San Francisco and making an impact 🙌 pic.twitter.com/98OMeiwWdo

— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) October 8, 2025

Despite that, I wouldn't take it as proof that Bourne is fantasy relevant. His other three games still matter in the analysis here, as does the fact that the 49ers' receiving corps won't be a graveyard forever. Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall could both return in Week 6, which would severely impact what Bourne's capable of doing. This was almost certainly a one-week wonder.

Verdict: Fiction

A.J. Barner, TE, Seattle Seahawks

Week 5 stats: seven catches for 73 yards and two touchdowns -- overall TE1

Seattle Seahawks tight end Barner was relatively quiet as a rookie, catching 30 passes for 245 yards and four touchdowns. Five games into his second NFL season, he's on track to blow those numbers out of the water.

After catching just four passes over the first three games this season, Barner has 10 receptions and three touchdowns over the past two weeks. He's played over 80 percent of Seattle's snaps in both games.

Barner wasn't supposed to do much this year. The Seahawks spent a second-round pick on Miami tight end Elijah Arroyo, who was expected to take on a pretty sizable role right away after the team released Noah Fant in July.

Right now, though, it's Barner who looks like Seattle's top tight end, and his increased usage this week feels notable. His seven targets are tied for the most in any of his career games, and he continually outpaces Arroyo as far as playing time goes.

I'm not calling Barner a league winner or anything, but he has Sam Darnold's trust in important situations and has seen his targets rise over the past two games. If you need a streaming tight end option right now, there are definitely far worse options than Barner.

Verdict: I'm not full-on hype training here, but we're moving toward this being a Fact

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