Week 16 Thursday Night Football Prop Picks: Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers

December 23, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 16 Thursday Night Football matchups between the Titans and 49ers, and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 16 with the Tennessee Titans hosting the San Francisco 49ers.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

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Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers: More or Less Contest

• A.J. Brown MORE than 59.5 receiving yards
• Brandon Aiyuk MORE than 54.5 receiving yards

A.J. Brown has had one of the most frustrating seasons of any player this year. He’s dealt with various nicks and bumps along the way. He had three games in a row with 90 or more yards, but those were his only three games with more than 50 receiving yards. This week he matches up with a 49ers’ secondary that’s been dealing with injuries all season, and while they’re a great defense at stopping the run, they’re 21st against the pass. Julio Jones is banged up going into this game, so that should mean even more opportunities for Brown to hit this mark.

Since starting the season in the Kyle Shanahan doghouse, Brandon Aiyuk has started to emerge over the last couple of months for San Francisco. After failing to have more than 40 yards in any of the team’s first six games, He’s put up 40 or more yards in six of his last eight games. The Titans are in the middle of the pack against receivers as they rank 15th against the pass by DVOA. With Deebo Samuel taking on an increased workload in the backfield, that will give more opportunities for Aiyuk in the receiving game, so this mark is well within reach.

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Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers: More or Less Contest

• D’Onta Foreman LESS than 62.5 rushing yards
• George Kittle MORE than 60.5 receiving yards

The 49ers have an outstanding run defense, and the way that you beat them is definitely through the air. Luckily for Tennessee, A.J. Brown is back and Julio Jones is completely off of the injury report. Unfortunately for D’Onta Foreman, their presence in a good matchup will cut into his touches. Foreman has two games with more than 50 rushing yards this year, and one of them was against a team that was allowing Tennessee to run the ball all they wanted. The 49ers aren’t likely to do that in this one. Foreman could have a very quiet night. 

This number almost seems deceptively low. Kittle has 93 or more yards in each of his last three games, including over 150 in two of his last three. Kittle remains one of the two most important weapons in this offense, and with Deebo working more out of the backfield, he’ll be the primary read in the passing game all night. Considering he’s hit this mark in six of the eight games where he’s seen at least five targets, this number is well within reach.

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Tennessee Titans vs San Francisco 49ers: Rapid Fire Contest

• Ryan Tannehill +50.5 passing yards vs Jimmy Garoppolo & A.J. Brown +15.5 receiving yards vs George Kittle

This is a classic example of a correlation pick. If Ryan Tannehill has a good game, it’s logical to say that Brown also has a good game. The 49ers are a team that’s built to stop the run, but they don’t have the elite cornerbacks to really round out their defensive unit. Tannehill has struggled as of late, but he also hasn’t had his full gambit of passing weapons at his disposal, as he will tonight. Even if the 49ers are leading by a decent margin, they’re not likely to make Jimmy Garoppolo throw the ball a ton. This Titans’ team also isn’t built to salt the game away on the ground, so they’ll be more likely to throw. When Tannehill is throwing, the lion’s share of those targets will be going to Brown, and he has the big-play ability to keep him close to Kittle in their head-to-head matchup.

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