Thursday Night Football MKF Prop Picks: Bengals vs Jaguars

September 27, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 4 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Jaguars and Bengals and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is rolling, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. Tonight, we kick off Week 4 with the Cincinnati Bengals hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars.

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars: More or Less Contest

• Joe Burrow LESS than 250.5 passing yards
• Trevor Lawrence MORE than 245.5 passing yards

This is purely a game-script call for quarterback Joe Burrow. When the Bengals are leading, they’re not throwing the ball. Head coach Zac Taylor wants to control the clock and run the ball while letting Burrow manage the offense and keep it on schedule. Burrow has gone for more than 250 yards just once this season, and that was in the opener that went to overtime. He still only had 261 yards in that game. Burrow isn’t likely to air it out in this one. 

On the flip side, the Jaguars are often trailing, and they are throwing often. Head coach Urban Meyer has no problem with Lawrence airing it out, even if that is leading to a high number of turnovers. Lawrence has attempted at least 33 passes in all three games thus far, and the team throws the ball when they’re trailing. This Bengals’ defense doesn’t have an amazing secondary, and Lawrence should be able to move the ball enough to hit this mark. 

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars: More or Less Contest

• D.J. Chark MORE than 52.5 receiving yards
• Joe Mixon MORE than 82.5 rushing yards

This one is mostly relying on Chark connecting on at least one deep pass. Chark ranks ninth in the NFL in air yards, and he has a 31 percent share of the team’s air yards. The only issue has been connecting with Lawrence, as he’s caught just seven of the 22 targets that have been thrown his way. If he can catch at least one big pass, he sees enough targets that he can make up any remaining yards.

When the Bengals are leading, Joe Mixon is getting the ball. He’s averaging 22.3 carries per game with an average of 4.3 yards per carry through three games. The Bengals are the fourth-heaviest team in terms of run percentage at 48.48 percent of the time. The Jaguars are allowing 115 yards per game on the ground, and no other player on the Bengals has more than six carries. Mixon can get to 83 yards tonight. 

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars: More or Less Contest

• Tyler Boyd MORE than 64.5 receiving yards
• Marvin Jones MORE than 62.5 receiving yards

After a quiet Week 1, Boyd has re-emerged as one of the favorite targets for Burrow. His 19 targets lead the team by three over Ja’Marr Chase, and he’s catching 73 percent of the passes thrown his way. The Jaguars just traded away C.J. Henderson, which leaves their cornerback room thinner. In a loaded receiver room, one of these Bengals’ pass-catchers will always have an advantage. With his high catch percentage, Boyd should get to this mark.

Jones is dancing all around this line after three weeks. He leads the team in targets, receptions, yards, and is tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns. His yardage totals in Weeks 1-3 were 77, 55, and 62 respectively. Against a Bengals’ defense that’s allowing 238 yards per game through the air, I think Jones getting to 63 yards isn’t out of the realm of possibility. 

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Rapid Fire Contest

• Trevor Lawrence +5.5 passing yards vs Joe Burrow & Joe Mixon -28.5 rushing yards vs James Robinson

Through three weeks, Lawrence is averaging 223 yards per game through the air compared to 213.3 for Burrow. Coach Taylor prefers to sit on the lead with his running game, and that takes the ball out of Burrow’s hands. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are always throwing when they’re behind. I think the Bengals play with a lead which gives Lawrence the throwing edge, but it also gives Mixon the edge of Robinson. Mixon has 19 or more touches in all three games thus far, and this Jaguars' run defense shouldn’t be able to slow him down enough to keep Robinson close. 

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