Thursday Night Football MKF Prop Picks: Texans vs Panthers

September 23, 2021

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 3 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Texans and Panthers and offers his favorite prop picks and more/less picks for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. After six long months, the NFL season is rolling, and with that comes a chance to win some money. Tonight, we kick off Week 3 with the Houston Texans hosting the Carolina Panthers

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers More or Less Contest

• Sam Darnold MORE than 270.5 Passing Yards
• Davis Mills LESS than 185.5 passing yards

The Houston Texans are a spunky group, but they’re terrible. After knocking off the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, they were hanging with the Cleveland Browns in Week, until quarterback Tyrod Taylor (hamstring) left the game with an injury. Now, Panther quarterback Sam Darnold gets to take a crack at this group. He’s gone over this mark in both of the team’s games so far, and the Texans’ pass defense leaves a lot to be desired. The only thing that makes this close is if this game turns into an early blowout which forces Carolina to run the ball.

The Panthers gave up 258 yards through the air in Week 1 to the New York Jets, but they only allowed 111 in Week 2. This pass rush is causing problems for their opponents, as they’re first in the league with 10 sacks through two games, and the Texans have given up 17 pressures through two weeks. Mills looked rough in his first outing, and things don’t figure to fare better in Week 3.

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Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers More or Less Contest

• Christian McCaffrey MORE than 79.5 rushing yards
• Brandin Cooks MORE than 65.5 receiving yards

CMC put up 72 yards in a blowout win over a good New Orleans Saints defensive front after going for 98 yards in the team’s Week 1 win over the New York Jets. Now, he gets the best matchup he’ll face all season, and he should have a favorable game script that prompts him to get a good amount of touches. Similar to Darnold, if the game turns into a huge blowout, they could pull him, but I think he gets his work done early enough.

Cooks saw 14 targets in Week 2. That’s not all that surprising. It’s happened 1517 times in the history of the NFL that a player saw 14 or more targets in a game. However, what is surprising is the fact that Cooks’ 14 targets gave him a 50 percent market share in the game. No other Texans’ pass-catcher saw more than two balls thrown their way. Cooks is the lone serious threat in this offense, and, when Mills drops back to pass, the ball is going to Cooks more often than it’s not.

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Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers More or Less Contest

• DJ Moore MORE than 75.5 receiving yards
• Mark Ingram LESS than 44.5 rushing yards

Through two games, Moore is averaging 79.5 yards through the air, and he’s gone for more than this mark in each of the first two weeks. The Texans don’t have a corner that can stick with Moore consistently which makes this even juicier. Moore leads the team with 19 targets, and CMC is the only other player with double-digit targets. If Darnold goes for more than 270, we should see Moore clear this benchmark as well.

The Panthers just held Alvin Kamara to five yards on the ground on eight carries. The Saints as a whole only had 48 yards. I’m not expecting Ingram, who missed this mark in Week 2 to outperform an entire team in Week 3. Considering the Panthers will likely sell out to stop the run and force Mills to beat them through the air, I don’t think Ingram will have that much room to work.

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Houston Texans vs Carolina Panthers Rapid Fire Contest

• Sam Darnold -85.5 passing yards against Davis Mills & Brandin Cooks +10.5 receiving yards against DJ Moore

Well, this one is pretty simple. If I’m expecting Darnold to go for more than his passing yards prop while I’m expecting Mills to go for less than his mark, they have 85.5 yards between their projections, so this is easy. Even if Mills hits his mark, I think Darnold airs it out enough to win his portion. For Cooks vs Moore, it’s all about volume. Cooks is going to be force fed targets all night. I think Moore will get his fair share, but there are enough other weapons to visualize a path where Cooks keeps this one close even if Moore has a good game. 

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