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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 10 of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending in which way.
We don't have a ton of data to reference on the 2021 season, as many of the underlying metrics still need more time to stabilize before making the same assumptions. However, we can look at a player's track record and performance in this early season.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
Two months into the season and Rendon's slash line looks abysmal(.228/.308/.339). Yeah, it's horrible. It's annoying, yet it is also perfect for us. First, let's start by examining his batted ball profile. His spray chart shows he is hitting the ball to all fields(40.4% Pull, 34.7% Straight, 27.5% opposite). Truth be told, that is part of what's made Rendon a success: his ability to hit all fields. Next, outside of too many infield pop-ups, the GB%, LD%, and FB% align with the career numbers. So what gives? Simply put, Rendon is not barreling the ball as much as in the past (only 4.8%). The odd part to that, Rendon's hard-hit% is right at his career 42%.
I'm here to tell you that there is likely a fantasy manager that is tired of seeing an early round draft pick drag them down. That person has done the hard work. They rostered a sleeping giant at the worst. Heck, Rendon's striking out well below league average while continuing to walk. The missing part is only that he needs to catch a few more pitches the right way. Scoop him up as fast as you can. There is nearly 75% of the season left, and Rendon has shown he is a difference-maker. My suggestion would be to start very low. Not so low as to insult, but show interest and don't seem like you value Rendon as a top-100 player.
Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics
It's hard to imagine any fantasy manager drafted Montas as their SP1, so in all likelihood, he isn't their stabilizer. Furthermore, I bet when they see his 4.45 ERA with a handful of wins, they may not see him for who he is. Behind that middling ERA is a 3.92 SIERA and 4.34 FIP. Those metrics suggest there could be some positive regression coming his way. Additionally, his 17.6% K-BB% is the highest it has been since his 2019 breakout.
Let's narrow Montas' 2021 season to the last month. In his six games started, Montas threw 34 innings pitched that included 38 Ks and only ten BBs. His success translated to a 3-3 record with a 3.18 ERA. So, he may be back to that 2019 form. Furthermore, Montas is notoriously slow-starter, as shown by the career 4.63 ERA in March/April. Follow that up by his 2.92 career ERA in May, and you can see why he is a trade target.
The calendar switched to June, and if Montas has returned to form, we could see a similar 2.42 ERA, like his 2019 season. The trade will still take a decent offer because pitching, in general, has been full of injuries and disappointments. I'll suggest asking his fantasy manager if he is available first or making him part of a more significant deal to keep the focus away from Montas.
Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
Swanson was an absolute disaster to begin the season. In April, he batted .189 with a .582 OPS. That's just awful! That 95 AB stretch is causing his season stats to look much worse than his overall performance. On the season, Dansby is slashing .239/.288/.442 with nine HRs and 45 runs+RBI. Right? Those numbers are incredibly pedestrian, especially when looking at how deep the SS position is. However, Dansby turned the corner in the last month. In the last 93 ABs, he crushed six HRs while slugging .559-now that is more like it!
The poor start was a combination of bad luck mixed with a slow start. However, when we glance at his overall Statcast metrics, things look like business as usual. The barrel rate is slightly north of 10%, and his hard-hit% is a career-high watermark at 46%. Also, keep in mind his 79th percentile in sprint speed that comes in very handy since he already swiped a pair of bags. That type of power+speed combo is difficult to find, and grabbing him before the production takes off will be essential.
Trade Targets to Move
Hunter Renfroe, Boston Red Sox
You caught lightning in a bottle with Renfroe. The BoSox slugger does precisely that; slugs HRs. Unfortunately, his profile suggests an all-or-nothing approach that leads to slumps. Over the last two weeks, Renfroe is 13-for-34 with a pair of HRs and 16 runs+RBI. Even better, his heater extends to the previous 30 days, where he swatted five HRs and touted a .311 batting average.
Unfortunately, this output should not be what you're expecting from Renfroe. Instead, teams have used Hunter as a platoon bat to demolish LHP. Through his nearly 1600 career ABs, his wRC+ vs. LHP is 138, while the 86 wRC+ vs. RHP. Do you think there are more left-handed or right-handed pitches in the MLB for those playing at home?
Do your best to make offers to that team looking for HRs. I would suggest bringing up the fact that Renfroe averages nearly 30 HRs every 400 plate appearances. But, however you do it, you need to trade him before he goes on a horrendous slump.
Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
In different circumstances, maybe we would be trading for Reynolds. The Pirates outfielder has been excellent by showing off a .283 batting average and .863 OPS. He has even showcased a little pop by putting seven balls into the bleachers. So why do we want to move him? His team, the Pirates, is one of the lowest-scoring teams in MLB. While that can't knock Reynolds too much, it does affect his counting stats quite a bit.
Let's talk for a moment about the outfield position as a whole. It is far and away the deepest position in MLB. This is one reason why some leagues are three-OFs, and some leagues are five-OFs. I would be offering up Reynolds as trade bait in every single three-OF league I'm in. The replacement level for three-OF leagues is much better than you think.
Reynolds is riding a hot bat and plays for a sub-par offense in a pitcher-friendly home park. When it comes to trading away your assets in fantasy baseball, moving them at the peak is crucial. In all likelihood, we might be looking at the pinnacle time to push a Pirates player.
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