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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 15 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Raiders and the Chargers and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the Las Vegas Raiders playing host to the Los Angeles Chargers.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of so let's take a look at what this game has in store for us tonight!
Raiders vs Chargers: More or Less Contest
- Justin Herbert OVER 283.5 passing yards
- Derek Carr OVER 270.5 passing yards
When this team stays in games, it’s been with Herbert’s arm. He’s thrown the ball exceptionally well all season, and the Raiders have no ability to stop the pass. On top of that, the Raiders are going to be without several starters on the defensive side of the ball. Herbert averages over 288 yards per game through the air. This number seems very in reach for Herbert.
The Raiders were able to run the ball nearly at will during the first matchup between these two squads. In this matchup, Carr is likely going to have to put in more work. With the holes in the Raiders’ defense, the Chargers will be able to build a lead with ease, and that will force the Raiders to get away from their usual game plan.
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Raiders vs Chargers: More or Less Contest
- Josh Jacobs OVER 66.5 rushing yards
- Keenan Allen OVER 78.5 receiving yards
The Raiders are going to be able to lean on running back Josh Jacobs for the entire game, however, this mark is definitely within reach. The Chargers allow an average of 120 rushing yards per game. While teammates Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard will get some touches, Jacobs is going to get the majority of the work, and he can get over this relatively low bar.
Allen is a mismatch of epic proportions for all of these Raider cornerbacks. Wideout Mike Williams (back) left Sunday’s game early, and, while he did return to practice on Tuesday, he is not a lock to play after missing time earlier in the season. Allen has a matchup advantage with multiple starting defensive backs missing for the Raiders, and you should feel confident in him clearing this mark.
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Raiders vs Chargers: More or Less Contest
- Justin Herbert OVER 283.5 passing yards
- Derek Carr OVER 270.5 passing yards
- Keenan Allen OVER 78.5 receiving yards
This defense has struggled to stop teams all year, and the offense has had to throw the ball much more as a result. When that happens, Herbert has been slicing up lesser defenses. In the previous matchup with the Raiders, he put up 326 yards through the air. This defense, fresh off the firing of defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, is unlikely to dramatically improve, so we can have some faith in Herbert here.
On this one, we’re sticking with our original idea that this game is going to be a bit of a shootout. Carr has shown the ability to clear this mark with seven games over 270 this year, and four of those games were over 300 yards. Herbert and the Chargers can put up points on this defense which will force Carr to throw the ball. If the Raiders get a big lead early, this number is in danger, but the Chargers should be able to keep the ball moving.
As we talked about above, Williams is dealing with an injury that could cause him to miss this game. If he were to miss, this number is even juicier just because of the sheer volume that Allen gets. Allen has seen at least seven targets in all but one game this season, and he’s seen at least 10 or more targets in 10 out of 13 games. We’re taking the over here.
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Raiders vs Chargers: Rapid Fire Contest
- Justin Herbert COVERS 13.5 more passing yards than Derek Carr & Josh Jacobs COVERS 11.5 more rushing yards than Austin Ekeler
The Herbert call makes me feel a lot more comfortable than I am with Jacobs. This Chargers’ roster has been able to whip the ball around the yard all season long. This Raiders’ defense is allowing over 250 yards per game through the air while the Chargers are allowing just under 220 through the air. Seems pretty safe to me. On the other side, Jacobs and the Raiders want to run the ball to set up everything else. For running back Austin Ekeler, you can feed him the ball through the air, and he’ll generate yardage in that way. He’s a good runner, but Jacobs and the Raiders prefer to lean on him.
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