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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Rams and the Patriots and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the Los Angeles Rams playing host to the New England Patriots.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
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Rams vs Patriots: More or Less Contest
- Jared Goff UNDER 274.5 passing yards
- Cam Newton UNDER 170.5 passing yards
We’re starting off this game expecting a defensive struggle. The two teams combine to allow just over 41 total points per game. Over the last three games, the Patriots are allowing fewer than 15 points per game, and cornerback Stephon Gilmore has been shutting opponents down. This game could easily turn into a defensive slugfest with not a lot of yards to go around for either side.
Could Cam go over this mark? Absolutely. Do I have any faith in him doing so? Absolutely not. He’s gone under this mark in seven of the 11 games that he’s played this season, and, in one of the games he cleared it, he had just 174 yards. Newton and the Patriots haven’t been trying to throw the ball this year. They’ve been focused on running it and grinding out the clock. Unders could be really common in this one.
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Rams vs Patriots: More or Less Contest
- Cooper Kupp OVER 68.5 receiving yards
- Damien Harris OVER 62.5 rushing yards
When Goff is throwing, Kupp and teammate Robert Woods are the top options, and it isn’t particularly close. After those two, the next-closest receiver in targets is Josh Reynolds, who has 44 fewer than Kupp and 37 fewer than Woods. Kupp averages about 69 yards per game, and he has a decent matchup in the slot which should lead to him at least clearing this mark.
This one is all in the idea that the Patriots are going to try and grind out a win. When the Patriots took down the Rams in the Super Bowl a few years ago, they ran the hell out of the ball to keep the clock churning. This year, they’ve taken that to a new level, and Harris has been the leading man of that attack. 62.5 isn’t the best number, but they won’t be able to throw the ball which is what we’re banking on here.
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Rams vs Patriots: More or Less Contest
- Jared Goff OVER 274.5 passing yards
- Cam Newton UNDER 170.5 passing yards
- Damien Harris OVER 58.5 rushing yards
What? We’re switching from one of our previous calls? Yeah we are. The Harris and Newton calls feel much safer than the original Goff call. This season, Sean McVay has been pulling the strings extremely well all season, and he’s been setting Goff up for success by getting the receivers open with room to run. There could be some plays that the receivers break that turn into big plays and help him to hit this mark. In the previous Goff call, if Goff hits the under, I’d expect the under for both. If either of them are clearing their mark in this game, I’d expect Goff more than Newton.
As we’ve talked about a few times already, the Colts’ defense has really tightened up this year, and they’ve become one of the NFL’s best. They have been exploited on occasion, and the Titans have the pieces to do it. With great receiving weapons in Brown, Davis and Jonnu Smith, along with Henry as a battering ram, it’s just impossible to try and fully shut down this Titans’ offense.
If we have confidence in the previous mark of 62.5 yards, you can have even more in this mark. Harris and the Patriots have fully leaned into the run-heavy offense with Newton under center. It could be a little difficult for him to get there against a defense that’s holding opponents to under 100 yards rushing per game, but he should be able to get there thanks to a decreased number for this prop combo.
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Rams vs Patriots: Rapid Fire Contest
- Jared Goff covers 104.5 passing yards more than Cam Newton & Cooper Kupp has more receiving yards than Robert Woods
The sheer number of this prop is almost laughable. Despite the big number, I’m still taking Goff to cover. The Patriots have had Newton pass for fewer than 100 yards in each of the last two games, and I don’t think they’re able to move the ball dramatically well against this Rams’ secondary. On the Kupp call, it’s all about the matchup. Woods typically plays outside, which means that he will see Gilmore more often than Kupp. In that situation, Kupp is the player that’s trending higher for me and this prop call.
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