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Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 8 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Panthers and the Falcons and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.
The NFL season is back, and we cannot waste our opportunity to make some cash. We’ve seen crazy upsets so far, and we’ve seen a lot of money won. Tonight, we have another shot with the Carolina Panthers hosting the Atlanta Falcons.
On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of so let's dive in here and see where we want to attack this game tonight.
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Panthers vs Falcons: More or Less Contest
- Matt Ryan UNDER 285.5 passing yards
- Teddy Bridgewater UNDER 282.5 passing yards
In this game, we actually get to cheat a little bit with our bets. The Falcons and Panthers played each other just a few weeks ago, so we have an idea of how these two groups will match up. In the previous matchup, Ryan threw for just 226 yards. Wide receiver Julio Jones was absent for that game, but this Falcons’ offense just isn’t as high-octane as we’re used to. He’s gone under 285.5 in four out of seven games thus far, and that has a strong chance to continue this week against the Panthers, who are allowing just 227.1 passing yards per game.
One thing I didn’t mention under Ryan, but it obviously applies to both he and Teddy is the weather. There is an 80 percent chance that it rains tonight in Charlotte. That ball is going to be slippery, and that’s going to lower the scoring and throwing from these offenses. In addition to that, Teddy has only gone over this mark twice all year. One of those was in Atlanta, but that was the final Dan Quinn game. A low scoring affair is very possible tonight.
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Panthers vs Falcons: More or Less Contest
- Julio Jones OVER 80.5 receiving yards
- D.J. Moore OVER 5.5 receptions
In the games that Julio has been fully healthy, he has cleared that mark every time. He was removed from the team’s injury report prior to this game, and he’s going to see a ton of work from Ryan. When Ryan is throwing the ball, Julio is always the first or second read, and the Panthers just released their second-best corner in Eli Apple. From the volume he gets, Jones should clear this mark.
This one comes down to exclusively how bad the Falcons’ secondary is. This team is allowing the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season. They haven’t been able to stop anyone, and they can’t get out of their own way. The one issue with Moore has been his lack of volume, but he’s still been seeing a healthy amount of targets. As Bridgewater’s confidence has grown, he’s getting more looks in the direction of Moore.
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Panthers vs Falcons: More or Less Contest
- Matt Ryan UNDER 285.5 passing yards
- D.J. Moore OVER 5.5 receptions
- Todd Gurley OVER 66.5 rushing yards
- Julio Jones OVER 80.5 receiving yards
We already covered this for Ryan, but let’s go a little more in-depth. In the games where Ryan has put up a high number of yards, the offenses they were playing against were putting up high scores. The Panthers are a good offense, but I don’t think they play at a high enough level to really force him to chuck the ball a ton.
In this game, you only have to get three out of four correct, so you can fade Moore here if you want to cover your bases from the previous bet contest. I’m not fading him though, and I think he goes over this number. He’s getting the second-most targets on the roster, and the Falcons don’t have the cornerbacks to stop him every down.
Gurley has been touchdown-reliant for fantasy points this season, but this is a matchup where he has the potential for a big yardage total. The Panthers have a good passing defense, but they’ve struggled against running backs. They allow an average of 4.9 yards per carry, and he sees more volume than any other back on the roster. If Atlanta can keep this game close, they can keep running him all game long.
Julio is the alpha receiver in this audience. There is no question about it. He’s fully healthy, and he has the speed to break a big play at any time. With the volume that he receives every game, this number truly isn’t that high, and, as previously mentioned, he’s cleared this bar in every game that he’s played a usual workload.
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Panthers vs Falcons: Rapid Fire Contest
Matt Ryan -3.5 passing yards over Teddy Bridgewater & Robby Anderson -1.5 receiving yards over Calvin Ridley
Teddy has played well to start this year, and he has some talented receivers at his disposal. However, Ryan just throws the ball more, and he has even better receivers to throw to. Since the return of Jones, we’ve seen that Ridley is the second receiver, and Robby Anderson has been his team’s primary target all year. He comes out of this game as the leader over Ridley.
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