TNF Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight: Browns vs Bengals

September 16, 2020

Gage Bridgford analyzes the Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Bengals and the Browns and offers his favorite prop picks and over/under bets for Monkey Knife Fight.

The NFL season is officially back. After not having football since the Super Bowl back in February, this is exactly what we need right now. What makes football more exciting than it already is? Putting money on it, and Monkey Knife Fight is the way to do it. 

On MKF, there are no massive tournaments where you have to get ridiculously lucky just to cash. You're just playing against the house, and the dudes at MKF have fallen all over themselves to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.

As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: More or Less Contest

• Joe Burrow UNDER 237.5 passing yards
• Baker Mayfield UNDER 240.5 passing yards

Our first contest is actually one of the easier ones I’ve come across so far. Even when they got steamrolled by 32 points, the Cleveland Browns only gave up 275 yards through the air to Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson. Against the Los Angeles Chargers, Burrow got 70 of his 193 passing yards on the final drive of the game. The Browns Defense should be able to get pressure and keep him under this mark.

Similar to the Burrow prop, I’m taking the under pretty comfortably. Even with a game-script that required him to throw a ton to try and close the gap, Baker only generated 189 yards through the air. The Bengals Defense isn’t anything to write home about, but I have more faith in the running game of Cleveland than anything else. Running back’s Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt have a great game, and that keeps Mayfield’s total low.

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: More or Less Contest

• Tyler Boyd OVER 54.5 receiving yards
• Nick Chubb OVER 72.5 rushing yards

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd finished with four receptions for 33 yards in the loss to the Chargers. He was tied for second on the team with five targets, and that will go up as his chemistry with Burrow improves. If he can get just one big reception to go with his usual workload, he’ll crush this with relative ease.

Like I said before, I think Chubb is going to have a good game. This Browns’ offensive line is massively improved from last season, and they can give Chubb the room he needs to get a head of steam going. Once he gets that, I don’t have faith in anyone on the back end slowing him down consistently. I’ll take the Chubb over pretty easily, especially if they’re able to get their lead early in the game.

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: More or Less Contest

• Baker Mayfield UNDER 240.5 passing yards
• A.J. Green UNDER 59.5 receiving yards
• Odell Beckham Jr. OVER 4.5 receptions
• Joe Mixon UNDER 75.5 rushing yards

I’ve already given you my analysis here, but, just to reiterate, I’m expecting to Cleveland to get the lead then utilize their running backs. Baker struggled in Week 1, and they’ll be looking to make life easier on him in Week 2. You do that by leaning on your stud running backs.

Green will likely be drawing the coverage of cornerback Denzel Ward, who is one of the best young corners in football. Green will have the size advantage, but I think Cincinnati will be playing conservative again with Burrow under center. Green could catch a big-play ball, but we can miss one on this bunch of picks.

Beckham finished with just three receptions in Week 1, but I think he’ll have no trouble hitting the over in Week 2. He saw 10 targets in Week 1, which lead the team by four over second. Beckham remains supremely talented, and he has struggled to find a rhythm with Baker. I think he can get some of that rolling against a Bengals’ secondary that is still trying to find their footing.

Cleveland just got done shutting down the NFL’s best rushing attack from last season. If you take out the 45 yards gained by quarterback Lamar Jackson, they finished with just 66 rushing yards. Mixon’s offensive line is severely overmatched against the majority of defensive fronts, and Cleveland’s is no exception.

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Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns: Rapid Fire Contest

Baker Mayfield MORE passing yards than Joe Burrow & Odell Beckham Jr. MORE receptions than A.J. Green

We have to go 2/2 on this one, and I think we should have no problem with that. Baker’s receiving weapons are better, and they are more willing to let him take shots down the field than Zac Taylor appears to be with Burrow. On the other side, it’s simple history. Green has never been a big volume guy. He lives on big plays, while Beckham gets force-fed by Baker when he’s on the field.

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