Unexpected Dynasty Risers - Hitters

4 years ago by Jamie Steed

What Appears In This Article? hide

2. Austin Slater (1B/OF, SF)

3. Mike Brosseau (1B/2B/3B/OF, TB)

4. Edwin Rios (1B/3B, LAD)

5. Sam Haggerty (2B/OF, SEA)

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Every year in dynasty league drafts fantasy managers will target young future stars, prospects which rank highly among all prospect rankings. There's a tendency to overdraft/overpay for these high-end prospects as fantasy folks are drawn to the new and shiny things much like kids get gooey-eyed for the newest toys each Christmas.

While this is understandable as these prospects are ranked highly for a reason; they have the best chance of translating potential into Major League success. But there are always some hidden gems, those with impressive Minor League numbers which can act as a great indicator of how a player will fare in the Majors and how a prospect will transition into fantasy relevancy when they get called up to The Show.

But every year, lesser know prospects emerge at the Major League level as viable fantasy options. Players in their mid-twenties who aren't even in the top-10 of their club's farm system get called up and perform at an unexpected level to become fantasy relevant. Despite the uncertainties of 2020, we are still seeing such players come from nowhere into fantasy relevancy so we're going to take a look at five hitters who are doing just that, assess their performances so far and what their long-term fantasy value is.

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Jake Cronenworth (1B/2B/SS, SD)

At 26 years old, Cronenworth isn't really a prospect, but he's a rookie who is making a name for himself in 2020. The 'extra piece' of the move which saw Tommy Pham traded from the Rays to the Padres, the utility infielder is showing his own (Cronen)worth with a .342/.402/.608 slash line through 25 games. Yeah, his name lends itself to dreadful puns too. Although he moved around the infield earlier in the short season, Cronenworth has established himself as the Padres' regular second baseman but his ability to cover at first base and shortstop improves his chances of staying in the lineup every day.

Although he was drafted by the Rays as a two-way player after a successful College pitching career, Cronenworth only pitched seven innings last year which was the first time he took the mound in the minors, so we can assume his pitching career is over. Last year also saw Cronenworth have his best season as a hitter with 10 homers, 12 stolen bases and a .334/.429/.520 slash line. In 504 Minor League games, he hit 22 home runs and stole 73 bases so it might be a bit surprising Cronenworth has three homers compared to just one steal so far this year. But he's become a fixture in the middle of the Padres lineup and is establishing himself as a versatile modest five-tool player.

Given he was universally undrafted prior to this season, Cronenworth should have been a bargain pick up in dynasty leagues and at the very least, will give you a reason to root for arguably the most exciting team in baseball right now.

Austin Slater (1B/OF, SF)

Unlike Cronenworth, Slater has previous Major League experience having played 176 games for the Giants between 2017 - 2019. Now 27 years old, Slater was having something of a career year prior to injuring his groin and heading to the IL (after playing with a sore elbow). Through just 19 games, Slater was already just one home run (four HR) and one stolen base (six SB) shy of tying season highs and his .347/.458/.653 slash line is comfortably a career-best.

It's easy to look at his .406 BABIP and assume Slater has just been really fortunate this year but if we take a closer look at his Statcast profile, his expected numbers don't scream that significant regression is coming.

2020 Stats	Expected 2020 stats	Difference
AVG	xAVG
.347	.341	- .006
SLG	xSLG
.653	.598	- .055
WOBA	xWOBA
.458	.443	- .015

The differences between Slater's actual and expected stats are pretty small and while we can expect his numbers to slip away a bit, he should still put up very good numbers on his return from injury and be a viable outfielder option in all fantasy leagues. Slater has only had one season of double-digit steals (2018 with eight in Triple-A and seven in the Major League) but ranks in the 76th percentile in sprint speed this year according to Statcast. First-year Giants manager Gabe Kapler appears keen to utilize the outfielder's speed with six steals from seven attempts in just 19 games. Slater has emerged as a viable outfield option in fantasy and should remain a fixture in the Giants lineup for the coming years. He's an ideal cheap source of steals with a good batting average and will chip in with double-digit home runs and likely won't cost much to keep on your roster in dynasty leagues.

Mike Brosseau (1B/2B/3B/OF, TB)

Brosseau has been on the fantasy radar in dynasty leagues for the last twelve months after an impressive Triple-A season in 2019 saw him promoted to the Major League. In 73 games for the Durham Bulls, Brosseau hit 16 homers and had a .304/.394/.567 slash line with a .406 WOBA. He turned that into a solid first go in the Major League, hitting .273/.319/.462 with six homers in 51 games. So far this year, Brosseau has mainly been deployed against left-handed pitching and used as a pinch hitter frequently as evidenced by his 50 plate appearances despite appearing in 21 games. A look at his Major League splits will show us if this platoon usage is justified.

	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	K%	BB%
2019 vs LHP	70	.300	.329	.500	23.3%	4.1%
2019 vs RHP	62	.242	.309	.419	31.9%	5.8%
2020 vs LHP	30	.367	.394	.800	30.3%	6.1%
2020 vs RHP	14	.214	.353	.214	35.3%	17.6%
Career vs LHP	100	.320	.349	.590	25.5%	4.7%
Career vs RHP	76	.237	.318	.382	32.6%	8.1%

Outside of a better walk-rate, Brosseau fares much better against left-handed pitching. He is only 26 years old and has just 76 at-bats against right-handed pitching so there's plenty of chance for growth, but it's not clear if the Rays will afford him enough chances in games to face more righties. Even if Brosseau justs ends up as a platoon bat, his positional versatility and numbers against lefties are still reasons to warrant inclusion on your dynasty league rosters, especially in leagues where you can make daily roster moves and play match-ups.

Edwin Rios (1B/3B, LAD)

Rios made a name for himself after the 2018 Minor League season for hitting over .300 in three straight years. Given the 2018 season was all at the Triple-A level, you'd be forgiven for thinking Rios should be a fixture in the Major League by now and for pretty much all other teams, he would be. Unfortunately for Rios, the Dodgers team is stacked and their farm system is so loaded, he's never even been included in the Dodgers top-10 prospects according to MLB Pipeline. After another impressive Triple-A season last year, Rios eventually made his Major League debut in June and in just 56 plate appearances, managed to hit four home runs and put up a .277/.393/.617 slash line.

In 450 Minor League games, Rios has 95 home runs with an .887 OPS which would normally vault him towards the top of draft boards in dynasty leagues. As mentioned, playing time was the negative factor for Rios but he managed to feature in 14 games this year prior to landing on the IL with a hamstring injury in mid-August. Those 14 games only equated to 31 plate appearances however, yet Rios still hit three homers and when he returns to action he will be looking to maintain his impressive 1.012 OPS.

Rios has featured at both corner infield spots and with Justin Turner a free agent at the end of this year, if Rios continues to impress after he returns from the IL, he could make a serious case for manning the hot corner for the Dodgers long-term, although his defense will likely need to improve for that. He is certainly someone who needs consideration for adding to your roster in dynasty leagues now as this could be the last chance of getting Rios at a discount.

Sam Haggerty (2B/OF, SEA)

Haggerty was claimed off of waivers back in January in a move that went almost completely unnoticed. Haggerty also failed to make the Mariners opening day roster so he continued to reside in relative obscurity. But the Mariners called him up and he made his first start in Seattle on August 19th batting eighth and playing left field. Haggerty stole two bases on his debut and found himself batting leadoff the following day. Since then, he's hit second for the Mariners in the next five games, seemingly becoming a fixture in the lineup. Through six games this year, Haggerty has hit .280/.308/.480 with one homer and three steals and has at least one hit in every game he's played. A look at Haggerty's Minor League career numbers will show you why he is worth considering rostering this year and long-term in dynasty leagues.

In 408 Minor League games, Haggerty has amassed 113 steals and managed 49 in 2017 in High-A. Through his 2018 and 2019 season in the Double-A and Triple-A levels, Haggerty played 174 games and stole 49 bases. The problem for Haggerty is a career .249 batting average in the Minor Leagues and it's seldom a good idea to roster hitters who are stolen base only players (Mallex Smith springs to mind as to why). But Haggerty does have good plate discipline and had a .355 OBP throughout the Minor Leagues with an impressive 13.24% BB%. That's likely the reason why the Mariners have no problem with Haggerty hitting in the two-spot. Being a switch hitter who plays good defense should be enough to keep Haggerty in the Mariners lineup as long he keeps getting on base.

Providing his current role sticks, Haggerty will also be a fantasy asset in scoring runs and in leagues which value walks/OBP, he will be an excellent addition to your fantasy teams outfield for the coming years.

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