PGA DFS: Vegas Report - U.S. Open

Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Rory McIlroy steamrolled the field on Sunday at the RBC Canadian Open, shooting a final round 61 to claim his 16th career PGA Tour victory. McIlroy has been impressive throughout his career, winning 25 percent of his titles by seven or more strokes, but the one issue that could hold the Irishman back this weekend at Pebble Beach is his record at challenging courses. McIlroy has failed to win any of his 25 worldwide titles with a score under 12-under par, and I don't believe it is farfetched to say that this year's U.S. Open could hover right around even-par. I'm not so sure it is a reason to discount the third-ranked player in the world completely, but I would do a hard doubletake if I were looking to back him this weekend.

Our betting results stayed scorching hot after McIlroy was able to provide us with our third outright winner of the season and second win before a major! (Corey Conners 200/1, Valero). It is always wonderful to bring momentum into a grand slam event, but as I stress with these articles quite frequently, we need to stay level-headed at all times.

The late, great Chip Reese was a good family friend of mine, and he once told me that "gambling is a long road that never turns." That statement is more so meant to accentuate getting through rough patches in the business, but I think it can be applied as a broader statement here also. Ebbs and flows will come and go in this game, but we always need to stay on the same path, regardless of if we are winning or losing. Our goal is to research every tournament as if the one the week prior never happened, which should always allow us to put our best foot forward and handicap each contest without a preconceived notion.

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2019 U.S. Open

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.

 

Pebble Beach Golf Links

7,035 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa Annua

I have seen the same false narrative continuously pop up throughout the industry this week. I realize Phil Mickelson was able to capture the title earlier this season when the course held the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but most sources have failed to acknowledge that the event is played on a rotational system. Two of the rounds do feature this week's Pebble Beach Golf Links course, but Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula both make a cameo during the contest. All three courses are corollary setups, but let's pump the brakes slightly when trying to gauge how the U.S. Open will play based on that event. The time of the season is different, the setup is more difficult and the course is going to play nowhere near Mickelson's winning total of 19-under par.

Last used for the U.S. Open in 2010, Graeme McDowell was able to capture the title at even-par. The U.S. Open has always been synonymous with providing some of the sternest tests yearly, and I believe we are in store for another grind it out affair in California. The fairways feature Poa Annua and Ryegrass, while the rough is projected to be nearly four inches thick. The property is heavily bunkered with 118 sand traps, and the average green size is usually the smallest on tour at 3500 square feet.

If tiny landing areas weren't difficult enough, the course sits on the Monterey Peninsula and can wreak havoc when the wind picks up. Heavy rough surrounds the majority of the putting surfaces, and players can leave themselves short-sided quite easily. The greens are projected to be somewhere between 12-13 on the stimpmeter, making them faster than tour average. Pebble Beach will not be for the faint of heart, and there is a good possibility that we see carnage ensue this weekend.

 

U.S. Open Best Bets

#1 Tiger Woods - 12/1

DK Price $10,700, FD Price $11,900

If you follow my article weekly, you might be surprised to see Tiger Woods come in as my top selection. I've never been shy when discussing Woods' continual mispricing for any event that he enters, and it stems from his popularity with both the casual and sophisticated fan.

The people that infrequently tune in to watch golf (but do so far the biggest tournaments of the season) create a much larger betting handle than casinos are used to seeing for a regular event. However, sportsbooks are well aware that Woods is usually going to be public enemy number one for them in exposure and will readjust his price accordingly. It must be noted that none of this means that Woods can't win, but we usually get offered a price that is about half of what it should be in the betting market.

Futures betting is difficult because the majority of the prices extended to us are never "fair prices." It is easier to find marginal value down the board, but people tend to forget that we actually need to pick the winner if we don't have each-way options. I write these articles under the pretense that a majority of my readers are American and don't have that possibility available to them, so sometimes we need to deviate slightly off the path when a situation presents itself. I want to talk a little bit about why I think my model is overvaluing Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson before I discuss Woods a little deeper, and I think it will help to show that Tiger is perhaps closer to being listed at the right price than anyone might imagine.

Let's start with the 2016 winner at Oakmont. Johnson has the potential to lap the field from start to finish, but his inability to close on the biggest stage is beyond alarming. I have given him a pass for the majority of his missteps along the road, but Pebble Beach isn't necessarily a prototypical course that would give Johnson an upper hand over his competition. In fairness, the 34-year-old has dominated the venue throughout his career, winning the Pro-Am in back-to-back years in 2009 and 2010, but I believe that Johnson would be better suited for a bombers U.S. Open than a grind it out affair. Only two of his 22 worldwide victories have come with a winning score of eight-under par or less, and those venues featured a much heavier emphasis on driving distance.

On the other hand, Brooks Koepka has also done the majority of his damage at venues where driving distance has helped to propel his game. Pebble Beach features an average of nearly 16 yards less off the tee than an average site, and that doesn't even emphasize the fact that the rough has been grown out by the USGA and will make this course play unlike we are used to seeing it. If Koepka can three-peat this event, I will tip my hat to him and move on, but he is an option that I can't get myself to back at his current price.

So what makes Tiger Woods the real favorite in my eyes? For starters, taking the driver out of his hands is a huge benefit. Woods has been sloppy with spraying the ball off the tee, and with everyone needing to club down and layup for most shots, Woods will have a massive advantage with his long iron play over the field. When incorporating a 90% weight to 2019 statistics and 10% to 2018, Tiger is ranked first in proximity from over 200 yards and also ranks first in GIR, first in par-three average and third in birdie or better percentage.

It is never easy to tell what Woods' ownership will be on DFS sites, but he is currently projected to be slightly over 15 percent owned. I'd lean towards guessing it will be higher, but I do believe Johnson will be the most owned player this weekend and should help to alleviate some of Tiger's overall percentage. Only one winner of the U.S. Open has won the event since 2008 with an outright price of over 40/1, so I believe we are going to need to eat chalk somewhere if we want to locate the winner. Woods' game is trending in the right direction, and we may be able to catch him with slightly less fanfare than usual.

 

#2 Xander Schauffele - 28/1

DK Price $8,700 FD Price $10,900

Comparing two players' outright price isn't something I would advise doing often because one golfer being over/underrated shouldn't directly influence your opinion of the other. But can someone please explain to me in what world Patrick Cantlay is a better bet at 20/1 than Xander Schauffele is at 28/1?! Not only do I think Schauffele is the better golfer, but it seems as if every single person in the industry has a Cantlay ticket they are expecting to cash. I like Cantlay's game, but if he beats me, congratulations to him.

Schauffele is interesting for a few reasons. For starters, I am not so sure we can directly classify him into any specific category. He is good with his irons, he is excellent off the tee, and the 25-year-old has already displayed a killer instinct during his four career PGA Tour victories. In two career U.S. Open appearances, the 10th-ranked player in the world has recorded a share of fifth in 2017 and a share of sixth in 2018. Pebble Beach will be a different kind of setup compared to those bombers tests, but Schauffele has also registered top-two finishes at the Masters, Open Championship and Players Championship. Let's face it, X-Man can win anywhere.

Schauffele is currently projected to be around 13 percent owned on DraftKings, but I consider it to be a bit of a discount when you consider the fact that most of his counterparts in this price range are expected to be vastly more popular. I think 25/1 is a fair price for him in the outright market and believe he is one of the few players inside of 50/1 or less that is presenting us with some value on the card. Schauffele is ready to breakthrough, and I wouldn't count him out in California this weekend.

 

#3 Tommy Fleetwood - 35/1

DK Price $8,900, FD Price $10,600

Tommy Fleetwood is going to be one of the most polarizing golfers this weekend. Most people are under one of two pretenses when it comes to the Englishman. Either he is overrated at 35/1 and untouchable, or the 28-year-old is undervalued when you consider his pedigree and game. Trying to sway someone's opinion on this topic one way or the other will never work, but I do want to highlight a few reasons why I believe Fleetwood is worth a look at the year's third major.

Quite often the narrative around a player is less than stellar before they can find their breakthrough victory, but that isn't necessarily a negative when it comes to their outright price. I rate Fleetwood better than Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott and Jason Day, and while I know that argument sounds ridiculous to say Fleetwood is a better bet than Scott, Spieth and Day - who are all major winners - these are the sorts of stances we sometimes have to take when someone hasn't been able to find their maiden win on tour.

I've always said that the Open Championship was the most likely place for Fleetwood to win because of the types of venues and conditions that those courses see, but Pebble Beach keeps the U.S. Open's mentality of being a problematic layout while adding in the prototypical game requirements that we would expect to see from the Open Championship. Fleetwood is much more likely to win at a course where the winning score is five-under par or less, and the windy conditions, links-style golf and scrambling nature of Pebble Beach gives us a European test on American soil. I have the 28-year-old rated at 25/1 to capture the title and will gladly grab an extra 10 points on him. Fleetwood is projected to be 13 percent owned on DraftKings, but as was the case with Xander Schauffele, we are right around or below the perceived range of most of his salary priced counterparts.

 

#4 Marc Leishman - 75/1

DK Price $7,800, FD Price $9,600

Marc Leishman hasn't had the best U.S. Open record in his career, but the culmination of a few factors could give the Aussie a chance this weekend. Leishman has credited long-time caddie Matthew Kelly for fixing a flaw in his putting stroke, which has helped him regain form right in time for Pebble Beach.

Leishman had lost strokes putting in three consecutive events before the Memorial but got back on track after gaining 3.7 strokes on the greens in Ohio. Kelly noticed that the 35-year-old was acting indecisively on putts from close range, and the duo decided it would be in their best interest to read the greens together with any putt that was within 10 feet of the hole. The change has paid dividends so far, and the 21st-ranked player in the world enters the year's third major with confidence that he can make a run at the title.

While Leishman has missed three of seven cuts at the U.S. Open in his career, you wouldn't know it based on his interviews. He was quoted saying: "I'm excited for Pebble Beach because of how big a factor the short game is going to be. I'm putting well again, my iron play is great because I can shape in both directions and if you miss at Pebble, you have to have an extraordinary short game to save par, and I feel mine is pretty good." With a $7,800 price tag on DraftKings and 75/1 outright price, those words are good enough for me to take a chance on a top-25 player in the world.

 

My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week

Key Stats: SG Approach 20%, Proximity From 100-125 Yards AND 200+ Yards 15%,  Ball Striking 15%, GIR 15%, Scrambling 15%, Sand Save Percentage 10%, SG Around The Green 10%

70% Stats/30% Form/20% U.S. Open History

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy -180
Tiger Woods $10,700 price tag on DraftKings vs. Rory McIlroy $10,500 price tag on DraftKings
Tiger Woods 16.1 percent projected ownership vs. Rory McIlroy 13.2 percent projected ownership

1.00 Units to Win 1.60

You won't see me go this high up the betting board for a head-to-head play virtually ever, but Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy -180 is providing too much value for me to pass up.

I mentioned earlier in the article how McIlroy has never won any of his 25 worldwide events at less than 12-under par, and while I am not advocating fading the Irishman completely, my model has Woods as a slight favorite in this matchup. Part of the reason for the disparity between my model and the actual odds comes down to McIlroy's victory last weekend. The third-ranked player in the world has seen a shift in support after capturing the title in Canada, and it has turned this from a virtual -110 kind of wager into a bet that is only giving Tiger a 38.5 percent implied probability of defeating McIlroy.

Frankly, I would have had Woods closer to -115 (53.5% implied probability) and believe we are getting an astronomical 15 percent edge from where it should be priced. That is not an advantage that we typically see in this industry, so  I am fine putting a full unit on this bet to win 1.6 total units. Good luck this weekend betting the U.S. Open, and hopefully we can keep the momentum rolling with another victory!

 

2019 Head-to-Head Record (14-7-2)

+7.97 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament	Head-to-Head Bet	Bet	My Picks Finish	Opponent Finish	Result	Total
Safeway Open	Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk	1.00 Units to Win 1.30	MC (+2)	MC (E)	Loss	-1.00
CIMB Classic	Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway	1.50 Units to Win 1.25	T19 (-17)	T27 (-13)	Win	1.25
CJ Cup	Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T18 (-8)	T18 (-8)	Push	0
WGC-HSBC	Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na	1.00 Units to Win 1.20	T18 (-1)	T54 (+10)	Win	1.20
Shriners	Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley	1.00 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+1)	MC (-1)	Loss	-1.00
Mayakoba	Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T41 (-9)	MC (+2)	Win	1.25
RSM Classic	Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	2nd (-19)	MC (+2)	Win	1.00
Sony Open	Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na	1.15 Units to Win 1.00	T51 (-6)	Did Not Start	Push	0
Desert Classic	Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T34 (-14)	MC (-8)	Win	1.00
Farmers Insurance	J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace	0.70 Units to Win 0.91	MC (+4)	MC (+3)	Loss	-0.70
Farmers Insurance	Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T35 (-7)	MC (E)	Win	1.00
Waste Management	Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway	1.00 Units to Win 1.05	T60 (E)	MC (E)	Win	1.05
Genesis Open	Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T9 (-7)	T51 (+1)	Win	1.00
Honda Classic	Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat	1.43 Units to Win 1.25	T59 (+3)	MC (+10)	Win	1.25
Arnold Palmer	Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk	0.82 Units to win 0.75	T17 (-5)	T15 (-6)	Loss	-0.82
Players Championship	Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler	0.75 Units to win 0.79	T30 (-6)	T47 (-3)	Win	0.79
Valero Texas Open	Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	MDF (+1)	MC (+4)	Win	1.00
Masters	Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen	1.15 Units to Win 1.00	T12 (-8)	T29 (-4)	Win	1.00
Wells Fargo Championship	Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie	0.75 Units to win 0.90	2nd (-12)	T18 (-5)	Win	0.90
Byron Nelson	Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+5)	T59 (-7)	Loss	-1.05
PGA Championship	Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+8)	T54 (+9)	Loss	-1.05
Memorial Tournament	Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T62 (+3)	MC (+2)	Win	1.00
Canadian Open	Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+1)	-6 (T27)	Loss	-1.10

 

2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player	Event	Odds	Finish Position
Matt Kuchar	Mayakoba Golf Classic	66/1	1
Corey Conners	Valero Texas Open	200/1	1
Rory McIlroy	Canadian Open	10/1	1
Chesson Hadley	CIMB Classic	110/1	T2
Dustin Johnson	Masters	12/1	T2
Adam Scott	Memorial	33/1	2
Ryan Palmer	CJ Cup	150/1	T3
Sam Ryder	Shriners Hospitals	80/1	3
Chez Reavie	Sony Open	80/1	T3
Justin Thomas	Waste Management	10/1	3
Tommy Fleetwood	Arnold Palmer	35/1	T3
Rafa Cabrera-Bello	Arnold Palmer	60/1	T3
Scott Piercy	RBC Heritage	150/1	T3
Lucas Glover	Honda Classic	60/1	T4
Brooks Koepka	Byron Nelson	7/1	T4
Jason Day	CJ Cup	13/1	T5
Sergio Garcia	WGC-Match Play	45/1	T5
Jason Day	Masters	40/1	T5
Marc Leishman	Memorial	66/1	5
Adam Hadwin	Canadian Open	70/1	6
Zach Johnson	RSM Classic	40/1	T7
Kevin Kisner	RSM Classic	40/1	T7
Webb Simpson	TOC	25/1	8
Jason Day	Players Championship	40/1	T8
Hideki Matsuyama	Players Championship	40/1	T8
J.B. Holmes	Safeway Open	60/1	9
Gary Woodland	Farmers Insurance	28/1	T9
Hideki Matsuyama	Genesis Open	30/1	T9
Shubankar Sharma	CIMB Classic	150/1	T10
Troy Merritt	RBC Heritage	250/1	T10

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