August 13, 2017

Rick Lucks analyzes recent callups Dominic Smith and Rhys Hoskins to determine whether they can help 2017 fantasy baseball rosters.

Owners looking for first base help were in luck this past week, as both the Mets and the Phillies called up highly regarded prospects.

Dominic Smith, age 22, has generated a significant amount of buzz with his Triple-A performance. Rhys Hoskins is a little older (24), but his minor league stat lines would play in fantasy immediately if he can carry over his success to the Show.

Both players belong to major markets, so the hype may be exceeding realistic expectations. Let's take a closer look at the newest fantasy options at first base. Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo! leagues.

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The Fantasy Jury is Out

Dominic Smith (1B, NYM) 15% Owned

Smith picked up his first major league hit in his MLB debut on Friday night, but fantasy owners are paying more attention to his minor league performance. He hit .330/.386/.519 with 16 HR in 500 PAs for Triple-A Las Vegas, adding a strong plate discipline profile (17.4% K%, 7.8% BB%) to his production at the plate. He was young for the level, suggesting that he could be a quick contributor. Is he ready to help fantasy rosters?

In truth, Smith probably won't ever help fantasy rosters. Sixteen big flies may not seem too bad, but remember where Smith hit them. Las Vegas is the most hitter-friendly environment in professional baseball, so any performance there should be viewed with a skeptical eye. The favorable stadium helped him compile a 16.7% HR/FB against a 9.9% rate in the more neutral environment of Double-A. His Double-A performance was itself nearly double anything he did before, suggesting that Smith may need a boost from Lady Luck to even approach double figures in the majors.

His FB% was very low at Triple-A (26.2%), necessitating a dramatic change to his swing if he wants to hit for consistent power. First base is among the most productive positions in fantasy, so we hold the position to a higher standard than the rest of the league. Smith lacks both the HR/FB and FB% to meet these power expectations, a fact that is likely to drag his BB% downward at the highest level as well.

Smith would have to hit at least .300 to be a viable fantasy option at first base without power, but his .380 BABIP at Triple-A will almost certainly fail to translate to the major leagues. He's not particularly fast, never swiping more than five bases in a minor league season. His 28.3% LD% is also unsustainable at the MLB level despite his above average rate on the farm. An IFFB% of 7.3% suggests that he did not lose too many PAs to pop-ups, but he never posted rates that low before reaching Vegas.

Smith's performance at Double-A last season provides a better barometer of what to expect. He hit .302/.367/.457 with 14 homers in 542 PAs on the strength of a .329 BABIP. His 23.5% LD% was high but not impossible at the MLB level, and his plate discipline was a little better than it was at Triple-A (13.7% K%, 9.2% BB%). His 11.3% IFFB% was a little high for a guy looking to maintain a high BABIP, a weakness MLB hurlers will likely be able to exploit more than their minor league counterparts. Smith likely projects for a .310 BABIP or so in the majors at first, dragging his average to the .270-.280 range.

Smith debuted in the sixth slot in the order, a position unlikely to produce many counting stats even if Smith hits well. A batting average upside of .280 is nowhere near high enough to compensate for Smith's lack of pop, rendering his best case scenario of little worth in fantasy leagues. Owners in deep leagues may need the PAs, but everyone else should ignore the hype. Smith just isn't that good at baseball.

Verdict: Chump

Rhys Hoskins (1B/OF, PHI) 24% Owned

Hoskins has done nothing but mash this season, hitting .284/.385/.581 with 29 HR in 475 PAs at Triple-A. Hoskins was even better at Double-A Reading last season (.281/.377/.566 with 38 HR in 589 PAs), but many discounted the performance due to his favorable home park. Philadelphia's ballpark favors offense as well, so his success at Triple-A bodes well for his ability to succeed in the majors.

A deeper look into his power production reveals that it should be entirely sustainable. Hoskins hits a ton of fly balls, putting up a 48.6% FB% at Triple-A this year that is actually slightly lower than the 51.6% rate he posted at Double-A last year. This extreme fly ball profile allows Hoskins to post elite power numbers without relying on an astronomical HR/FB (18.2% at Triple-A, 19.9% at Double-A), giving him the upside to hit 10+ homers over the rest of the 2017 season.

His batting average does not project as well. All of those fly balls doom Hoskins to a below average BABIP, especially since he hits more pop-ups (18.2% IFFB% this year, 13.1% at Double-A last year) than fantasy owners would like. He's also allergic to line drives, never once posting an above average LD% over a minor league season. Finally, he's not fast enough to realistically expect a ton of infield hits. These factors have conspired to limit Hoskins to a .281 BABIP at Triple-A this season, a reasonable number to expect moving forward.

His average isn't hopeless, however. Hoskins struck out only 15.8% of the time at Triple-A this season against a walk rate of 13.5%. Minor league plate discipline typically translates well to the majors, so Hoskins shouldn't be overmatched by MLB hurlers. Opposing pitchers will have to respect Hoskins's pop, so he should have no problem walking at the highest level. His K% is likely to spike as he adjusts to MLB pitching, but even his Double-A K% (21.2%) would be significantly better than average for an elite power bat.

Hoskins is currently filling in for LF Aaron Altherr despite playing first in the minors, giving him fantasy eligibility at both positions in many formats. The Phillies also hit him cleanup on Friday night, giving him as many counting stat opportunities as the Phillies are capable of providing. If you need power from 1B, Hoskins is the potential impact bat you have been looking for.

Verdict: Champ

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