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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 14 of the 2024 season? Andrew's potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for Week 14 lineups.
Welcome to Bye-Nado II. This time, the NFL means business.
The league's schedule-makers sent some of the league's best offenses to rest on the eve of the fantasy football playoffs. Managers are scrambling for starters and may not have the luxury of sitting players trending down or facing a bad matchup.
Below are my 10 fantasy football busts, or players who may disappoint, for Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season. Hopefully, this will help you set winning fantasy lineups this week. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) at Pittsburgh
The bottom line is that Nick Chubb is a touchdown-or-bust play this week.
Why is that? For his entire career, Chubb has been a top-tier runner who doesn't add much in the passing game. In six games this season, the 28-year-old has five receptions. Chubb also isn't running anywhere near his pre-injury level. He averages 5.1 yards per carry in his career. That number is down to 2.96 this season.
RB most rush attempts this season without a 20+ yard run:
Kareem Hunt (162)
...
Nick Chubb (82)
Jaylen Warren (78)
Cam Akers (76)
Zach Charbonnet (75)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 4, 2024
Chubb scored twice the last time the Browns played the Steelers (two weeks ago). For argument's sake, let's remove the touchdowns in all the games Chubb has played this season. His PPR high score would be seven points.
That's not to say there's a zero percent chance of a score against the Steelers. A running back has scored in every game against Pittsburgh since Week 3 (some through the air). But if he doesn't find paydirt, you'll regret the results.
Aaron Jones (RB, MIN) vs. Atlanta
Aaron Jones is on thin ice. Through 12 games, the 30-year-old has five fumbles. That matches his career-high. More troubling, four of those five fumbles have come in the previous three games. His second of two in Sunday's first quarter led to more time on the bench.
When the game wrapped, Jones logged eight touches. A last-minute receiving touchdown salvaged his day. Another fumble could lead to another extended stint on the sideline.
Aaron Jones pressers are always fun. Here's him talking about how he's been carrying his kids around the house to help fix his fumble issues — and about his mom saying last week that the Vikings needed to bench him. pic.twitter.com/d5ZDmmfYZk
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) December 4, 2024
Calling a shot on a fumble is more difficult than predicting a touchdown. So let's talk about the matchup.
The Atlanta Falcons are widely regarded as a weak defense because they don't sack the quarterback (15, worst in the NFL), average less than one takeaway per game, and are below average in yards and points allowed. The run defense has been stellar. No back has topped triple digits against them and they've allowed three rushing touchdowns.
Jones' saving grace will be his working in the passing game, a weakness for the Falcons. With bye weeks aplenty, Jones isn't out of lineups. Don't be surprised by a lower output on the ground, and be wary of another dropped ball.
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) at Philadelphia
This may be the beginning of an unfortunate backfield division. Chuba Hubbard saw his fewest touches since Week 1 last week against the Buccaneers. It wasn't because of the game script. Rookie Jonathon Brooks further integrated himself into the game plan. Hubbard was on the field for nearly 80% of the snaps but Brooks had the advantage inside the 10-yard line.
Yeah that ain't gonna cut it 27!
Jonathon Brooks running like a man who has been waiting a whole year to get back out there 😤 pic.twitter.com/PzvIMsrBtA
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 3, 2024
Regardless of how much Brooks eats into the workload, the matchup against Philadelphia does Hubbard no favors. The Eagles allow the fifth-fewest points to opposing running backs. They've allowed four rushing touchdowns (tied for second-fewest) and zero receiving touchdowns to the position.
At the time of this writing, the Eagles are 12.5-point home favorites. And (as you'll read below) the Panthers are terrible at stopping the run. The Eagles should control the clock, limiting Hubbard's volume.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF) vs. Chicago
Christian McCaffrey is out. Jordan Mason is out. Brandon Aiyuk is out. The offensive responsibilities are all on Brock Purdy.
He'll have to do it against a brutal matchup and possibly without his All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams (ankle). Williams missed two games last season. Purdy threw two touchdowns and four interceptions in two losses. Because of Purdy's shoulder injury and the snow bowl, no conclusions were drawn from the last two games that Williams sat out.
Chicago is the second-best fantasy football defense against quarterbacks. Three signal-callers have thrown more than one touchdown against the Bears. Without his best weapons, several streaming quarterbacks could be used instead of Purdy this week.
Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR, SF) vs. Chicago
Is this the free square this week?
Deebo's sudden decline is among the biggest fantasy football storylines in the back half of the season. He began the season strong and (theoretically) should have gotten more opportunities when Brandon Aiyuk went on IR. Instead, Jauan Jennings became the de facto WR1. Samuel has scored 13.2 PPR points combined over the last three weeks.
Deebo Samuel in his last 3 games:
❌ 22 yards
❌ 21 yards
❌ 20 yardsAre you benching Deebo next week? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/fd2yYxJaWm
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) December 2, 2024
The most alarming part about Samuel's transformation into a landmine is the lack of rush attempts. Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both got hurt against the Bills. Samuel got zero carries. He only lined up in the backfield for one snap. Sure, they were down big and had already lost two key players to injury, so the coaching staff could have played it safe. But, he has negative rushing yards in the last three weeks.
McCaffrey's return could be the primary reason Samuel stuck to his position. However, he routinely saw backfield snaps with McCaffrey healthy last season. Maybe he'll see more on Sunday due to San Francisco's depleted running back room. Still, it only adds marginally to fantasy production. He needs receptions to avoid another letdown.
Those catches could be hard to come by against Chicago. The Bears have allowed the second-fewest receptions and third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
DK Metcalf (WR, SEA) at Arizona
Whether it's due to injuries or the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the true WR1 in Seattle, DK Metcalf is slumping. It won't get easier in Week 14.
Earlier this season, Metcalf missed two games with a knee issue. In Week 13, he suffered a shoulder injury. It's hampering him in practice.
He's topped out at 70 yards since his return and averaged 11.5 PPR fantasy points. JSN, meanwhile, is at 17.8. The Cardinals give up one more fantasy point per game to outside receivers versus the slot. Look no further than the box score two weeks ago. Smith-Njigba had 77 yards and a touchdown. Metcalf had 49 yards on four receptions.
Smith-Njigba is the only receiver to score against Arizona since Week 6. When we think of Metcalf versus Arizona, the viral play of him chasing down Budda Baker on an interception comes to mind. He hasn't made very many offensive highlight plays against his divisional foes. In 10 career games against the Red Birds, Metcalf averages 2.7 receptions for 30.4 yards.
Adam Thielen (WR, CAR) at Philadelphia
With Dallas and Tampa Bay still on the schedule, 34-year-old Adam Thielen could be a valuable piece en route to a fantasy football championship. Managers may need to wait a week, though.
The veteran scored 23.9 fantasy points against Tampa Bay in Week 13 and nearly had a second touchdown to boost his total. The Buccaneers allow the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. Six receivers have scored at least 15 PPR points in the last six games. Only the Giants receivers failed to reach that mark (San Francisco had two).
Inversely, only the Rams receivers have scored more than 11 PPR points against Philadelphia since Week 8. That list includes Zay Flowers, Terry McLaurin, CeeDee Lamb, and Brian Thomas Jr.
Darius Slay is also back at practice. #Eagles pic.twitter.com/9VpTAyk5DK
— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) December 4, 2024
The Eagles are getting reinforcements with the presumptive return of cornerback Darius Slay Jr. Regardless of where Thielen lines up, he's matched against an elite cornerback.
A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI) vs. Carolina
There are six teams on bye. You're not sitting A.J. Brown. Let's get that out of the way.
What do the Eagles love to do on offense? Run the football. What can't the Panthers stop on defense? The run game. You see where this is going.
Philadelphia passes on 43% of its plays. The next lowest team is Pittsburgh near 49%. 27 teams throw more often than they run. That's the biggest reason Brown is averaging fewer than five receptions per game, something not seen since his Tennessee days. His targets per game dropped from 9.3 last season to 6.8.
Saquon Barkley has failed to reach triple digits on the ground once in the last seven games. That was in the blowout win over Dallas. Even against the Ravens, the NFL's best run defense, Barkley couldn't be slowed. The Panthers allow 166.8 rush yards per game. That's nearly 20 more yards per game than the next team, the Dallas Cowboys.
Saquon Barkley's rushing yards total for Sunday's game against the Panthers is currently set at 113.5 😱
That is the highest rushing total of the season and the 5th-highest in DraftKings Sportsbook history 😳 pic.twitter.com/EG6nvTmb03
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) December 5, 2024
The same logic can be applied to DeVonta Smith, who is expected to return after missing two games with a hamstring injury. His target volume has tanked. He can be sat in this matchup.
Brown ranks as a WR1 and can easily exploit a mediocre Carolina secondary for a long touchdown. But the targets may not be what you expect, lowering his floor.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX) at Tennessee
Which Mac Jones will show up against the Tennessee Titans? In his two starts this season, he failed to throw a touchdown pass and tossed three interceptions. Last week, in relief duty, the former first-round pick threw for 235 yards and two scores.
Evan Engram wasn't on the receiving end of either touchdown but tallied the second-highest reception total of his season. Unfortunately, it only translated to 41 yards. Unfortunately (again), that was the third-most yards he's gotten in a game.
The yardage total isn't likely to increase in Week 14. The Titans surrender the fourth-fewest yards to the position and seventh-fewest fantasy points. With Jones, Engram's ceiling is capped. He may get five catches but those are unlikely to go anywhere.
Juwan Johnson (TE, NO) at New York Giants
With Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill now out of the lineup, Juwan Johnson tied (with Hill) for the team lead in targets in Week 13. Can you blame Derek Carr for leaning on his tight ends with a receiving corps of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kevin Austin Jr., and Cedrick Wilson Jr.?
Klint Kubiak: “You don’t replace a Taysom Hill.”
Kubiak called him the heart and soul of the offense. Said Saints players will have to step up by committee.
— John Hendrix (@JohnJHendrix) December 5, 2024
The injuries put Johnson into streaming consideration. Not all games are the same. But if Johnson gets seven targets per game, that would be the sixth most among tight ends.
Amazingly, despite all the trials and tribulations the Giants have faced, the defense is great against tight ends. Only the Detroit Lions surrender fewer fantasy points. And, given that Alvin Kamara and Johnson are the primary offensive threats now, the G-Men should focus more on the tight end.
After this week, Johnson is an intriguing option and could be a stash if fantasy managers have a roster spot.
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