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Happy Wednesday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
With several games scattered throughout the day, we're left with an eight-game evening main slate. Today's matchups feature no shortage of pitching options, opening up plenty of opportunities to get creative with your lineup builds. I'll point out the standout plays.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks on 8/16/2023 and the main slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. KC ($9,600 DK, $10,500 FD)
All things considered, Luis Castillo is my favorite pitcher on this slate. Through 24 outings, he sports a 3.70 xERA and 3.62 xFIP. That includes a .299 xwOBA alongside similarly impressive numbers, like a .224 xBA, 6.2% walk rate, 32.1% whiff rate, and 28.2% strikeout rate. Castillo has developed a stable floor thanks to his strikeout production, punching out at least six in five consecutive starts, accruing at least 24 DK points in four of those appearances.
The Royals are among the most advantageous matchups Castillo could draw. They score just 3.9 runs per game on the season. Kansas City carries an awful 85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, including a .691 OPS, .300 wOBA, and 23.5% strikeout rate. Castillo struggles with surrendering power to lefties, but the Royals lack significant left-handed power. All the optics are good here.
Kevin Gausman, TOR vs. PHI ($10,500 DK, $11,100 FD)
In terms of ceiling, nobody on this slate rivals Gausman. He carries a 3.73 xERA and a phenomenal 2.91 xFIP through 23 starts this season. That consists of a .300 xwOBA, .236 xBA, and a 6% walk rate. There's a bit more volatility in his underlying metrics compared to Castillo, but Gausman's outstanding 32.5% strikeout rate illustrates his upside. He's managed at least six strikeouts in eight consecutive outings entering today and has accrued double-digit punchouts seven different times this season.
The Phillies are a much more imposing opponent than the Royals, but it's still a good spot for Gausman. Philadelphia sports a subpar 98 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, alongside a .736 OPS, .319 wOBA, and a 23.3% strikeout rate. In total, they score a middling 4.6 runs per game on the season. There's always a chance guys like Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Nick Castellanos cause problems for Gausman, but a double-digit strikeout performance is well within the range of outcomes.
Also consider: Blake Snell, James Paxton, MacKenzie Gore
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Mookie Betts – 2B/OF, LAD vs. Wade Miley ($6,200 DK, $4,400 FD)
Betts is never a bad bet (pun, but true). It may not feel like it, but he's having one of the best offensive seasons of his career. Betts is slashing .289/.389/.579 with 31 home runs. That includes a .565 xSLG, .405 xwOBA, 13.4% barrel rate, 49% hard-hit rate, and 92.5 MPH average exit velocity.
On the surface, Miley is having a great season. His ERA sits at 2.90 through 15 starts, but the underlying numbers are much uglier. Miley sports a 4.68 xERA and 4.79 xFIP. That includes a .442 xSLG, .263 xBA, and .333 xwOBA. He's been lucky this season and the Dodgers are the right opponent to expose that.
Jeimer Candelario – 1B/3B, CHC vs. Mike Clevinger ($4,700 DK, $3,300 FD)
Candelario has been an underrated bat all season. He's slashing .274/.355/.493 with 17 home runs. The switch-hitter has been particularly effective against right-handed pitching, slugging .535 against righties. Candelario's multi-positional flexibility makes him easy to slot into lineups.
Mike Clevinger is another arm whose surface stats defy the advanced metrics. Despite a 3.55 ERA, he carries a 4.59 xERA with a .418 xSLG, .251 xBA, and .330 xwOBA. Left-handed hitters are slugging .439 against Clevinger with a .326 wOBA.
Eugenio Suarez – 3B, SEA vs. Alec Marsh ($4,100 DK, $2,700 FD)
Much like the rest of the Mariners' offense, it's been an up-and-down season for Suarez. Still, his upside is tangible, and the advanced metrics are encouraging. Suarez boasts an impressive 12.8% barrel rate, along with a .438 xSLG, 44.5% hard-hit rate, 90.7 MPH average exit velocity, and .336 xwOBA. 15 of his 16 home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers.
Alec Marsh's early MLB results have not been pretty. Through 33 innings pitched, he owns a 6.05 xERA and 5.37 xFIP. That includes a horrible .488 xSLG, 10.5% barrel rate, .255 xBA, and .372 xwOBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Juan Soto – OF, SD vs. Dean Kremer ($5,700 DK, $3,700 FD)
Overshadowed by the underperformance of the Padres, Soto is having another great season. He boasts an outstanding 153 OPS+ and 24 home runs. That includes a .507 xSLG, 57.8% hard-hit rate, 93.2 MPH average exit velocity, .395 xwOBA, and 12.7% barrel rate. Against right-handed pitchers, Soto is slugging .549 with a 163 wRC+.
Dean Kremer has been hit a lot harder than his 4.50 ERA tells us. He sports an atrocious 4.90 xSLG, .277 xBA, 10.2% barrel rate, 43.9% hard-hit rate, and 90.5 MPH average exit velocity. Left-handed hitters are slugging .515 against Kremer this season, part of a .454 career mark.
Michael Harris II – OF, ATL vs. Randy Vasquez ($4,400 DK, $2,900 FD)
With Ozzie Albies on the injured list, Michael Harris II has been promoted to the second spot in the batting order. It may not seem like a huge difference, but considering he was hitting in the nine-hole before, that equates to an extra at-bat in most scenarios. Harris sports an outstanding .288 xBA this season, including a .458 xSLG, 46.1% hard-hit rate, .347 xwOBA, and 90.6 MPH average exit velocity.
Randy Vasquez carries an impressive 1.89 ERA through his first 19 career MLB innings, but nothing suggests the good times will last. He sports an uglier 4.91 xERA and 5.98 xFIP. Further, Vasquez posted an underwhelming 4.76 ERA and 4.61 xFIP across 16 starts in Triple-A this season. He's ill-equipped to handle this potent Atlanta Braves lineup.
MJ Melendez – OF, KC vs. Luis Castillo ($2,700 DK, $2,800 FD)
If you're not rostering Luis Castillo, then Melendez is a worthwhile one-off. His .222/.298/.379 slash line isn't terribly impressive, but he does own an exciting 51.2% hard-hit rate, 93.6 MPH average exit velocity, and 12.5% barrel rate. Melendez's upside exceeds his affordable price, and he's been hitting well lately.
For as good as Luis Castillo is, left-handed hitters are a problem. Lefties are slugging .441 against him this season, part of a .412 career mark. They've also posted 16 home runs versus Castillo in 2023. I wouldn't recommend stacking against him, but Melendez is cheap and the closest thing the Royals have to a left-handed impact bat.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Atlanta Braves vs. Randy Vasquez
Favorite Plays: Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna
Chicago Cubs vs. Mike Clevinger
Favorite Plays: Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, Jeimer Candelario, Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ
Also Consider: Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres
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