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Our Ben Rosener takes a look at the fantasy baseball impact of Matt Carpenter joining the Padres' lineup and Seth Lugo joining San Diego as well ahead of the upcoming season.
Even though the Winter Meetings are now behind us, there’s still plenty of offseason left when it comes to baseball news and rumors – especially with a number of the offseason’s top free agents still without a team. And that’s all without mentioning potential trades as there hasn’t been an overabundance of deals made so far. The reports and rumors of free agent interest and trade interest, combined with actual free agent signings and trades, will continue to have significant ramifications for fantasy managers ahead of drafts next spring
The aim of this column is to provide you with the latest fantasy analysis on both rumors and reports, as well as official signings and trades, and how it pertains to redraft fantasy baseball leagues next spring. Moves, or rumors and reports, tabbed as “Buying” are obviously good moves or potentially good moves from a fantasy standpoint. Moves or potential moves and reported interest that are filed under “Selling?” Not so great.
So, without further ado, let’s dive into the news with some free agency news out of the National League West, specifically via the San Diego Padres.
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Buying For Fantasy Baseball
Matt Carpenter Joining San Diego
Versatile fantasy players, or more specifically players who are eligible at multiple positions, often have league-winning potential if they contribute enough in the right categories at the plate. That was certainly the case for Matt Carpenter last year.
In 154 plate appearances for the New York Yankees, Carpenter hit .305 with a .412 on-base percentage, connecting on 15 home runs while seeing time across the diamond in right field and left field as well as at first base and third base. And while he didn’t log a full season’s worth of plate appearances for the Yankees, his contributions certainly turned the tide in a number of weekly fantasy matchups – when active – for fantasy managers.
The veteran is now heading across the country, and over to the National League, for the 2023 campaign, joining the San Diego Padres. The Padres announced in a tweet on Tuesday that the team signed Carpenter to a one-year deal.
Moving from Yankee Stadium – where Carpenter’s expected home run by park metric was 17 last year –to Petco Park is a bit of a potential downgrade from a power production standpoint as the veteran’s expected home run total for Petco Park would’ve been 14 last season. Still, a potential consistent role in a strong lineup should more than make up for that – especially if Carpenter is eligible in fantasy leagues at a number of positions.
If the veteran can start the majority of games each week for the Padres, regardless of position, he could once again be a league winner if his production at the plate is anything like it was last year.
In addition to the 15 home runs – the veteran’s most in a season since he hit 15 in 492 plate appearances in 2019 – Carpenter made plenty of loud contact in his time with the Yankees while cutting down on his strikeouts considerably.
It was a smaller sample size, but the 37-year-old logged a 13.7% barrel rate, a .362 xwOBA a .415 xwOBAcon, and a 42.1% hard-hit rate while striking out just 22.7% of the time. If he can carry that over in San Diego, he’ll have plenty of fantasy potential, especially if he’s hitting behind some combination of Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts, and – eventually – Fernando Tatis Jr.
In fact, depending on how the rest of the offseason shakes out, it’s possible that Carpenter could hit directly behind that group, providing him with plenty of potential RBI opportunities. Machado, (tied for 16th) Soto (tied for sixth), and Bogaerts (10th) all finished in the top 20 among qualified hitters in on-base percentage last season.
Buying For Fantasy Baseball
Seth Lugo Signing With Padres
The Padres have been busy as of late with off-season moves. In addition to fortifying their lineup with Carpenter, they took a step towards filling out their rotation with a player who also happened to play in New York last season.
San Diego announced via tweet on Thursday that the team signed Seth Lugo to a one-year deal. And it looks like he’ll reportedly be starting too. Prior to the deal being announced, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweeted the following on Monday morning:
“Seth Lugo and Padres are finalizing a contract as @JonHeyman reported. Plan is for Lugo to be a starter. Dodgers were also in the bidding until the end.”
Switching from the bullpen to the rotation isn’t an exact science, even for quality relievers. Sometimes things click immediately like with Jeffrey Springs last season. Sometimes the results are more mixed, as they were with Garrett Whitlock and Michael Lorenzen in 2022. But Lugo does have some starting experience in the Majors on his side here.
He’s made 38 starts at the big league level, including seven most recently during the 2020 season. Most of those 38 starts came in 2017 when the right-hander logged a 3.87 FIP, 7.51 strikeouts per nine innings, and 2.20 walks per nine frames in 98.1 innings spread over 18 starts for the Mets.
However, back then Lugo wasn’t featuring his high-spin rate curveball to the same degree that he is now. Obviously, pitch selection varies a bit between starting and relief roles, but if the former reliever continues to throw his curveball at a high rate, he could be set up for success.
It’s the same curveball that sat in the 99th percentile league-wide in spin rate last year. It’s also the same curveball that had a 30.8% whiff rate and held opposing batters to a .159 average, a .209 xBA, and a .255 xwOBA last season.
If Lugo remains in San Diego’s rotation, he’ll also have a shot at plenty of pitcher wins, which certainly doesn’t hurt from a fantasy standpoint. Bob Melvin’s rotation accounted for 55 pitcher wins last season, tied with Toronto for the sixth-most in the league.
The Padres will return Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Blake Snell, but will head into 2023 without Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, and MacKenzie Gore. The latter trio accounted for a combined 330.1 innings last season. And while Nick Martinez’s hypothetical return to the rotation could theoretically help eat into that number, there’s plenty of opportunity for Stammen to stick as a starter.
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