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Jon Anderson looks into the NFL DFS projections for week five to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your DraftKings DFS lineups.
Hey, RotoBallers! It's Jon Anderson back again to open up the week tenDFS slate! If you're new here, this is not meant to be a definitive "picks" article, but just a first look to point out the best game environments and best projections and value plays. Quite often, by Sunday I'm not on all of the plays I start with here, but it does set the table for the rest of the week of search.
Again, I don't think it's profitable to build a lineup based on these picks, and certainly not this early in the week. You should be focusing heavily on game environments and correlations when building lineups, and this post doesn't really give you that. It's just a table-setter to look at the slate from a high level and pick out these mid-priced players. I hope it is helping, and I will continue to make it stronger as we move forward.
We are looking at the DraftKings NFL DFS main slate on Sunday, November 13th. Here we go!
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Game Environments
- JAX @ KC, 50.5 O/U, 9.5 point spread
- CLE @ MIA, 48.5 O/U, 3.5 point spread
- DET @ CHI, 48.5 O/U, 3 point spread
- MIN @ BUF, 45.5 O/U, 6 point spread
- ARI @ LAR, 43.5 O/U, 3 point spread
Nothing really stands out this week. The Chiefs are tough to play outside of Patrick Mahomes given how much they spread the ball around and how expensive Travis Kelce always is, and there are serious doubts about whether the Jaguars can keep pace with them at all in Kansas City. The Lions and Bears game seems ripe for some fantasy goodness, but the game is outdoors in Chicago where the weather could be shaky - so there are reasons for doubt there as well.
Let's look at how these positions are shaping up early in the week.
DraftKings NFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Patrick Mahomes | $7,900 | JAX | 24.1 |
| Josh Allen | $8,600 | MIN | 25.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | $6,700 | CLE | 19.8 |
| Kyler Murray | $7,200 | LAR | 20.7 |
| Justin Fields | $6,500 | DET | 19.9 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Trevor Lawrence | $5,400 | KC | 17.5 |
| Jared Goff | $5,500 | CHI | 16.4 |
| Daniel Jones | $5,700 | HOU | 18.2 |
| Justin Fields | $6,500 | DET | 19.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | $7,900 | JAX | 24.1 |
Lots of interesting stuff going on at quarterback this week.
- Josh Allen is banged up and probably not a high-confidence pick at $8,600 with the injury questions
- Patrick Mahomes feels a little bit cheap at $7,900, but there are obvious questions as to whether the Jaguars can keep pace
- Justin Fields has been balling out of control and now gets the nut matchup with the Lions, however, he is priced up to $6,500
- There is nothing to feel overly confident about below Fields at $6,500
It feels really gross to click Fields at $6,500, but it's becoming hard to argue with his recent performance:
- Week 7: 179 pass yards, 82 rush yards, 2 total TD, 23.4 DK points
- Week 8: 151 pass yards, 60 rush yards, 3 total TD , 26.0 DK points
- Week 9: 123 pass yards, 178 rush yards, 4 total TD, 45.7 DK points
He is probably an excellent tournament fade, but the Lions are awful on defense so it's tough to get away from him in cash. The bottom line here, I think, is that there is no stand-out option at the top of the salary spectrum, so I think it's fine to just play the QB that fits your build the best. That could be Trevor Lawrence way down at $5,400, or it could land in the middle with Tua or Fields. We'll certainly have a much better feel for this as the week progresses and we get some further news and analysis.
DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,600 | HOU | 22.3 |
| Derrick Henry | $8,300 | DEN | 18.9 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,400 | PIT | 18.4 |
| Josh Jacobs | $7,600 | IND | 17.0 |
| Nick Chubb | $8,100 | MIA | 16.6 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Saquon Barkley | $8,600 | HOU | 22.3 |
| Najee Harris | $5,500 | NO | 13.7 |
| Alvin Kamara | $7,400 | PIT | 18.4 |
| Raheem Mostert | $6,100 | CLE | 14.7 |
| Devin Singletary | $5,600 | MIN | 12.9 |
Saquon Barkley gets a top matchup with the Texans, who have allowed four rushers to go over 100 yards and have given up five 30+ point games to RBs so far (Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Khalil Herbert, and Jonathan Taylor). That price is HEFTY, but Barkley's floor is awesome and his ceiling seems to be unmatched this week.
Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs also seem a touch too cheap given the great roles we've seen from them this year. I really like Kamara in that spot against the Steelers. Nick Chubb, Raheem Mostert, Joe Mixon, and Leonard Fournette have put up games over 20 DraftKings points against them already, and they really haven't stopped a feature back yet this year.
Ther is not much going on (for right now) on the cheap at running back, as the prices have adjusted on some of the guys benefiting from injury/trade, but Devin Singletary does stick out a bit there, he could be in for some extra work if Josh Allen isn't 100% - and it's a fine matchup.
I would really like to get Barkley and Kamara into my cash lineup, but that's certain to not be an easy thing to do. Let's take a look at wide receiver to see what we have going on over there.
DraftKings NFL DFS Wide Receivers
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Cooper Kupp | $9,000 | ARI | 23.1 |
| Tyreek Hill | $9,100 | CLE | 23.1 |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,300 | MIN | 22.7 |
| Justin Jefferson | $8,800 | BUF | 19.1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | $7,000 | GB | 17.5 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Stefon Diggs | $8,300 | MIN | 22.7 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | $4,700 | HOU | 12.1 |
| Cooper Kupp | $9,000 | ARI | 23.1 |
| Tyreek Hill | $9,100 | CLE | 23.1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $6,000 | JAX | 15.3 |
We have been pounding the $5000-$7000 range in recent weeks, but it seems like a lot of that has dried up. Some other names not featured above that could be interesting, specifically from that range
- Amon-Ra St. Brown $6,900 vs. CHI
- Allen Lazard $6,100 vs. DAL
- Chris Olave $6,800 vs. PIT
- Jerry Jeudy $5,700 vs. TEN
- Christian Kirk $5,900 vs. KC
Wide receiver really has been pretty easy this year, but I'm not seeing it as easy this week. Tyreek Hill's price is where it should be now, Stefon Diggs is tough to play if we don't have full confidence in Josh Allen, and Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb find themselves in tougher matchups.
Wan'Dale Robinson is the value king here, but he's maxed out at 44 snaps and just a dozen DraftKings points. We expect that role to grow throughout the season, and the price and matchup are great - but the floor is very, very low.
DraftKings NFL DFS Tight Ends
Top Raw Projections
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Travis Kelce | $7,800 | JAX | 20.9 |
| Darren Waller | $4,900 | IND | 11.4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $4,200 | NO | 10.5 |
| Tyler Higbee | $3,600 | ARI | 11.4 |
| Zach Ertz | $5,200 | LAR | 10.2 |
Top Values
| Player | Salary | Opponent | Projection |
| Tyler Higbee | $3,600 | ARI | 11.4 |
| Travis Kelce | $7,800 | JAX | 20.9 |
| Dawson Knox | $3,300 | MIN | 8.6 |
| Greg Dulcich | $3,400 | TEN | 8.8 |
| Pat Freiermuth | $4,200 | NO | 10.5 |
Another bad week at the tight end position. Travis Kelce sits head and shoulders above the rest, but I'm not sure his consistency warrants the $7,800 price tag here. He'll be a great tournament play while you hope for one of those multi-score games, but I don't think the optimal cash build include shim.
The rest of these guys have been shaky and inconsistent and/or are in tough matchups, so it seems like another week to find the best punt and hope for the best.
I really don't think I've helped anybody here, this is shaping up as a really tough slate. Keep it locked on RotoBaller as people smarter than me do the work to analyze and bring you more and better information about the DraftKings NFL slate for week 10! Talk to you next week!
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