EPL Betting Picks and Game Previews for Matchweek 15: English Premier League

We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

Last weekend started off well, but unfortunately for us, it didn't end well. We picked up three winners on the early Saturday slate but the remaining four games on Saturday and Sunday ended with a wash and three losses. Thankfully, we managed a small profit for the weekend still so we ended the run of back-to-back losses and start a new month on an upward turn.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

 

2022-23 EPL Betting Picks

• Match results: 60-66
• Total picks: 53-66-8
• Parlays: 5-17
• ROI: 96.29% (-3.90 units)

 

Saturday, November 05th, 2022

Bournemouth (+405) at Leeds United (-137) 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 1 Bournemouth

Leeds ended their run of four straight defeats with a shock 2-1 win at Liverpool last week. That was their first away win of the season while they haven't won in their last four home games. Only Arsenal and Aston Villa have kept a clean sheet at Leeds, with Villa having done so against ten men after Leeds had Luis Sinisterra sent off early in the second half.

Bournemouth's revival after sacking Scott Parker looks to be well and truly over. They enter this weekend on the back of three straight defeats and with just one win in their last seven games. Bournemouth has yet to keep a clean sheet on their travels (six games), conceding at least two in five of those games.

Betting pick: To score in both halves - Leeds United (+150) 1 unit

Bournemouth has only avoided conceding in both halves of their away games twice, with one of the two games seeing them concede twice against Nottingham Forest (the league's second-lowest scorers). Leeds have scored in both halves of three of their six home games. Two of the teams to have avoided that were Arsenal and Everton, both of whom are in the top four for fewest goals conceded.

Player to watch: Jack Harrison

Bournemouth has conceded more set-piece goals than any other team this season with Harrison being the team's primary corner-taker and regularly takes attacking free-kicks. Harrison also leads the team in shot-creating actions (44) and assists (three).

Fulham (+2114) at Manchester City (-747) 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 1 Fulham

City has won back-to-back games after losing their first game of the season at Liverpool. At home, they have won all six games, scoring 27 goals and conceding six. Their last home game against Brighton was the first time this season they failed to score four (winning 3-1).

Fulham is unbeaten in their last four games and the 44 total goals in their games are the third most in the league. That's despite their goalless draw against Everton last weekend and while they have scored in each of their last five away games, they've also conceded two or more in each of them too.

Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+118) 0.5 units

There have been four or more goals in all of City's home games. Their three clean sheets came against sides currently in the bottom half of the table while the three teams they faced currently in the top half all scored against them. Fulham is seventh and ranks sixth in goals scored (22) and they've found the net in each of their last five away games.

Player to watch: Julian Alvarez

While Erling Haaland is expected to play, City might not want to risk his foot injury if there are doubts which could leave the door open for Alvarez to start. Alvarez could still start the game even if Haaland plays as he did against Nottingham Forest (when he scored twice). Despite making just six starts for City this season in all competitions, he has four goals and two assists and seems a good option in DFS.

Brentford (+185) at Nottingham Forest (+161) 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Brentford

Forest was unable to back up their shock 1-0 win against Liverpool, falling to a 5-0 loss at Arsenal last time out. They remain rooted to the foot of the table with just one goal and no points on their travels. Seven of their nine points have come at home and only Tottenham has kept a clean sheet at Forest.

Brentford still seeks their first away win of the season, with three draws and three defeats from their six road games. They've conceded 15 goals away from home (tied for fourth most) with nine coming in their last two away games. They've scored six goals on their travels but only once in their last three away games.

Betting pick: Single-game parlay - A goal in both halves and both teams to score in 90 minutes (+110) 1 unit

Forest has struggled to score but has at least done so regularly at home. Brentford has had trouble defensively on their travels so I expect the home side to score. Forest is actually seventh in the first-half table at home but 20th in the second half as they struggle to see games out. Brentford is 20th in the first half away from home but tenth in the second half so don't be surprised to see Forest blow a half-time lead.

Player to watch: Morgan Gibbs-White

Gibbs-White joined Forest in a deal that could be worth ~$50m this summer, which certainly raised some eyebrows. And after a so-so start to the season, he's finding some form of late. He leads the team in shot-creating actions (32) and has two assists in his last four home games.

Brighton (+122) at Wolves (+250) 11:00 am ET

Score prediction: Wolves 1 - 0 Brighton

Having failed to replace Bruno Lage with any of their main targets and striker Diego Costa now suspended until after the World Cup, things aren't going well for Wolves. They do have an ok home record with two wins, two draws and two losses but just three goals scored highlights their issues.

Brighton picked up their first win under De Zerbi, beating their former boss' Chelsea team 4-1 last weekend. All eight goals scored in their last six games came against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea with blanks coming in their other three games so it's impossible to tell what Brighton will do from game to game.

Betting pick: Race to 5 corners - Wolves (+170) 0.5 units & Draw no bet - Wolves (+151) 0.5 units

With Brighton's form so erratic, I'd look to sprinkle a little bit on Wolves avoiding defeat at their current odds. But the corners market appeals the most. Wolves has taken five or more corners in four of their six home games (and four in the other two), averaging 5.33 corners per home game. Brighton has failed to reach five corners in five of their six away games, averaging 2.8 corners per game in those matches.

Player to watch: Ruben Neves

Neves has scored three of Wolves' six goals and without an available senior striker, he'll be relied upon to find some magic if they are to win this game. He ranked second on the team in shots (22) and third in shot-creating actions (29).

Leicester City (+212) at Everton (+143) 1:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Everton 1 - 1 Leicester City

Everton picked up their biggest win of the season in their last home game (beating Crystal Palace 3-0), then drew 0-0 at Fulham last weekend. They hadn't scored more than one in a home game before beating Palace and while they have the third-fewest goals conceded (12) this season, only the bottom two teams in the league have scored fewer (11).

Leicester was beaten 1-0 at home to Manchester City last weekend, a defeat than ended their three-game unbeaten and three-game clean sheet streaks. They've lost five of their six away games but no one has scored more away goals than Leicester's 12. Only Bournemouth (20) has conceded more on their travels than Leicester (19).

Betting pick: Single-game parlay - Both teams to score Yes and Everton over 1.5 cards (+145) 1 unit

This game could finish 3-3 as easily as it could 0-0. Leicester has found some solidity at the back but across the season to date, it's hard to back them to keep a clean sheet. Meanwhile, Everton struggles to score but is very good defensively. I'll hedge a bit with both teams finding the net once. No team has received more yellow cards than Everton this season, with at least two being received in each of their six home games.

Player to watch: James Maddison

Maddison has been integral during Leicester's recent resurgence and is their top-scorer (six goals) whilst also chipping in with two assists. He's scored in three of the five away games he's played in and is the team's primary corner taker. Maddison also leads the team in shot-creating actions with 46, which is tied-11th overall in the league.

 

Sunday, November 06th, 2022

Arsenal (+178) at Chelsea (+166) 7:00 am ET

Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 2 Arsenal

Graham Potter's first trip back to Brighton ended his unbeaten start as Chelsea's Head Coach when they lost 4-1 last weekend. They are still unbeaten at home (three wins and two draws) but are now winless in their last three Premier League games.

Arsenal returned to the top of the table last Sunday, thrashing Nottingham Forest 5-0 at home. They have six wins in six games at home and their away record is impressive too with four wins, one draw and one loss. They have scored in all 12 of their league games so far this season.

Betting pick: Both teams to score/total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+128) 0.75 units

There's a strong case to be made for all three possible results but regardless of the outcome, I'm expecting goals. The last four ties between these two teams at Chelsea have produced 16 goals whilst their last six EPL matches have seen both teams score and three or more total goals. Both teams have seen this outcome in 50% of their EPL matches this season.

Player to watch: Bukayo Saka

Saka allayed any injury fears by coming off the bench in Arsenal's Europa League game on Thursday. With four goals and five assists, only Gabriel Jesus has more goal involvements (ten) for Arsenal this season. He sealed Arsenal's win at Chelsea last season with a late penalty in their 4-2 win.

Manchester United (+118) at Aston Villa (+244) 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Aston Villa 0 - 1 Manchester United

Villa followed their 4-0 win against Brentford with a 4-0 loss at Newcastle United last weekend. New Head Coach Unai Emery will be under no false pretense as to how much work will be needed to ensure Aston Villa are playing Premier League football again next season.

Manchester United had goalkeeper David de Gea to thank for their 1-0 win against West Ham United last weekend and they are now unbeaten in their last five EPL games. Their six away games have seen a total of 20 goals but 13 of them came in their two defeats. Their three away wins have all been by one goal.

Betting pick: Single game parlay - Total goals under 3.5 & Total cards over 2.5 (-125) 1.5 units

Other than when they are getting hammered (6-3 and 4-0 losses), Manchester United's games have been low scoring. Nine of their 12 games have seen three or fewer goals and each of their last four games has seen two or fewer total goals. Unai Emery had a reputation at Arsenal for playing dull football and he'll likely have been focusing on tightening things up at the back in his first full week in charge.

These two teams rank tied-first and tied-fifth respectively for yellow cards this season, totaling 60 between them. Anthony Taylor is the referee in charge of this game and he has shown a total of 43 cards in 11 games this season (3.91 per game average).

Player to watch: Anthony

After scoring a goal in each of his first three EPL games, Anthony has now gone three games without a goal. He has taken ten shots in those three games and they were against teams in the top six of the league table. He's averaging 3.33 shots and 3.5 shot-creating actions per game and the Brazilian may need to conjure up some magic to breakdown what could be a resolute defense.

Newcastle United (-105) at Southampton (+309) 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 3 Newcastle United

Southampton's three-game unbeaten streak ended with a 1-0 defeat at Crystal Palace last weekend and they still only have one win in their last eight games. They have yet to keep a clean sheet at home (six games) but only Manchester United has prevented Southampton from scoring in those six games.

Newcastle's recent form has seen them move into the Champions League qualification spots and 16 of their goals scored this season have come in their last six games (eight goals scored in their previous seven games). Their only defeat came at Liverpool when they conceded a 98th-minute winner.

Betting pick: Winner/total goals - Newcastle & over 2.5 (+207) 0.5 units

Newcastle has been scoring goals for fun lately but they have only kept two clean sheets on their travels, one of which came at the league's lowest scorers (Wolves). Southampton has just one win from their six home games and Newcastle will be expected to take all three points back up north.

Player to watch: Callum Wilson

Miguel Almiron's recent form has been taking all the plaudits, but Wilson's form hasn't been far behind. He's scored six goals in nine games this season and has scored three and assisted one of Newcastle's last six goals. He'll be looking to finish this stage of the season with a bang to secure a World Cup place in the England squad.

Crystal Palace (+332) at West Ham United (-104) 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: West Ham United 2 - 1 Crystal Palace

West Ham will be wondering how they didn't come away with at least a point last weekend, dropping to Manchester United 1-0. At home, they have been showing good form having won their last three home games and scoring two or more in each of them.

It's been a similar story for Palace, with 13 of their 16 points coming at home. They are yet to win on the road (three draws and two defeats), whilst they have failed to score in their last three away games. I expect that trend to end given West Ham only has two home clean sheets (one against Wolves).

Betting pick: Moneyline 2nd half - West Ham United (+120) 0.75 units

At home, West Ham has outscored their opponents four times in the second half. Crystal Palace has yet to score a second-half goal away from home, conceding seven in those five games. I expect West Ham to be the team pushing for a goal later in the game if they aren't winning and given what should be a tight match, West Ham winning the second half at plus odds seems like a solid option.

Player to watch: Jarrod Bowen

Bowen hasn't reached the heights he did last season and his place in the England World Cup squad is not certain so he'll be desperate to finish the first part of the season strongly. After scoring in back-to-back games, he's now gone four games without a goal, although three of those games were away and the two goals he has scored both came at home.

Liverpool (+113) at Tottenham Hotspur (+242) 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 1 - 1 Liverpool

Tottenham came from behind to beat Bournemouth last weekend 3-2. It's been a familiar story with Tottenham now conceding the first goal in each of their last five games in all competitions. They lost Son Heung-min in midweek to a facial injury and he will join Dejan Kulusevski and Richarlison on the sidelines for this game.

Liverpool's league form has been poor, to say the least. Last weekend's 2-1 loss at home to Leeds United leaves them ninth in the table coming into this weekend. They've won just two of their last seven EPL games (both 1-0 at home) and are winless in their five away games this season.

Betting pick: Draw no bet - Tottenham (+147) 0.5 units

The reason Liverpool is such a strong favorite for this one is Tottenham's injury issues in the forward positions. But, Antonio Conte will likely adapt and have them play an even tighter and more compact game while hoping Harry Kane can nick a goal. Liverpool's form is such that I simply can't back them to win right now, especially on the road to a top-four team when they are priced as the favorites.

Player to watch: Darwin Nunez

I wouldn't be shocked if this game ended goalless and both teams would probably take that given their situations. If I was to pick an attacking player in this game, I'd go with the in-form Nunez. The Uruguayan has four goals in his last seven appearances in all competitions, despite starting just five of those games.

 

Parlays

Total goals: Leeds United/Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest/Brentford & West Ham United/Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals (+112) 1.5 units

 

Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!

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