RADIO
A solid week saw us bag a small profit last weekend, but it could easily have been more. Injury-time goals in three of the games all denied us correct score predictions and two of them cost us winning picks. Otherwise, we'd have been sitting pretty with a 132% ROI instead of the 102.52% we did bank. Matchweek 36 consists of ten weekend fixtures and additional six games in midweek, which we'll cover in a separate article out early next week.
For the remainder of this season, we'll be previewing every game. We're still going to offer up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction. But we will also include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
Old Style
- Total picks: 135-206-18 (92.01% ROI)
- Match results: 38-49
New Style
- Match results: 12-8
- Total picks: 9-11-0
- Parlays: 2-3-0
- ROI: 101.14% (0.28 units)
Saturday, May 07th, 2022
Southampton (+242) at Brentford (+124) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 1 Southampton
Brentford's four-game unbeaten run was ended at Manchester United on Monday but they haven't lost in their last three home games, keeping a clean sheet in all three. The 19 goals they've conceded at home is tied-sixth fewest in the league.
Southampton lost to Crystal Palace last weekend, courtesy of an injury-time winner and have just one win from their last nine league games. Their last away win came on February 09th, six games ago and only two teams have conceded more goals than Southampton (36) away from home this season.
Betting pick: Moneyline - Brentford (+124) 1 unit
Southampton have the whiff of a team "on the beach" right now, but given they could find themselves just two points outside the relegation zone by next weekend, they might need to get another win to guarantee their safety. Brentford have the same points and while I think both teams will be safe, Brentford's form and the two teams' respective home and away records lead me to back the hosts to win on Saturday.
Player to watch: Christian Eriksen
Monday's loss was the first Brentford have suffered when Eriksen was in the starting lineup since he signed for the club. He has only one goal and two assists in those seven starts but has had a shot on target in each of the last six and is in a good spot against one of the league's leakiest defenses.
Aston Villa (+144) at Burnley (+211) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 0 Aston Villa
Burnley made it three wins from three games since appointing Mike Jackson as Head Coach until the end of the season. They overturned a one-nil deficit at Watford last weekend to move out of the relegation zone and have won their last three home games. Their home record this season hasn't been too bad with Leicester City (11th) the lowest-ranked team to have beaten Burnley at Turf Moor.
Aston Villa confirmed Norwich City's relegation to the Championship last weekend with a 2-0 win. The second goal came in injury time which took away our correct score prediction and betting pick. It was Villa's first win in six league games and moved them to 40 points which should be enough to avoid any relegation fears (but still not assured).
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Burnley (+120) 1 unit
I was surprised Burnley are installed as pretty significant underdogs and although their winning run will end before the season does, they should avoid defeat and at plus odds for the draw no bet (a draw refunding our stake), we'll take advantage of it.
Player to watch: Matej Vydra
Vydra has started the last two games with one goal and one assist. His movement and willingness to run the channels has helped Burnley as they play more progressive under Jackson. He could very well find himself involved in a Burnley goal again this week.
Wolves (+941) at Chelsea (-278) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 - 0 Wolves
Chelsea suffered a surprise 1-0 defeat at Everton last Sunday and although they should be fine finishing in third place (and automatic qualification for the Champions League next season), Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur both are lurking over their shoulder.
Wolves gave an insipid performance in losing at home to Brighton 3-0 last week and have now lost their last three games, failing to score in any of them. They could still catch West Ham United in seventh and qualify for European football next season but look resigned to letting the season fade away into obscurity.
Betting pick: Moneyline 1st half - Draw (+130) 1 unit
Both teams have looked pretty non-threatening in the last couple of weeks and Chelsea have an FA Cup final to consider next weekend. I expect a strong team this weekend with some changes to their starting lineup in midweek. While I expect Chelsea will take the three points, the odds aren't appealing.
But the first-half market does appeal. Chelsea have played 16 home games this season and haven't trailed at the break in any of them but have been level at the interval in ten of those games. Wolves have gone in at half-time all square in 12 of their 17 away games so I'm taking the first-half draw odds and wouldn't be averse to taking a 0-0 scoreline at the break.
Player to watch: Timo Werner
The German international has struggled for goals this season with just four in 20 EPL games (14 starts) but does find himself leading the line on a regular basis in recent weeks. Chelsea may rotate even more than normal given their final next weekend but if Werner starts, I'd expect him to end his three-game goalless streak.
Watford (+450) at Crystal Palace (-147) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2 - 1 Watford
Although not mathematically relegated, Watford's defeat last weekend has consigned them to Championship football. They're the only team in the EPL without a win in their last five games (losing all five) and are without a clean sheet in eight games.
Crystal Palace ended a four-game winless streak in all competitions with a last-minute winner at Aston Villa last weekend. Their season did look like petering out following their FA Cup semi-final defeat but four points in two games have left them with a chance of a top-10 finish, their fist in eight seasons.
Betting pick: Total goals - Over 2.5 (-102) 1 unit
This game could very well end goalless but Watford's defensive record (22 goals conceded in their last eight games) doesn't give me any confidence in Watford keeping out the hosts. Watford could easily capitulate and be on the wrong end of a whooping so I'm not keen on both teams scoring and will instead take the over for total goals.
Player to watch: Wilfried Zaha
Zaha started on the bench last week but came on and got Palace's winner. He's their top scorer this season with 12 goals and scored a brace against Watford in the reverse fixture. He should be the difference maker between the two teams.
Manchester United (+158) at Brighton (+181) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 Manchester United
Manchester United actually won last week, beating Brentford 3-0 at home on Monday. Although their chances of a fourth-placed finished are all but over and their dressing room unrest has been well documented for weeks, I still don't see them losing on Saturday. But it's difficult to confidently back them to win any game at the moment.
Brighton's 3-0 win at Wolves last week was their biggest win of the season and only the second time they had scored three in a game. Brighton have won only 16 points at home with 28 coming away so their home form has been a problem all season and I'm not sure they'll be able to win this game, even against a Manchester United team in disarray.
Betting pick: Both teams to score 2nd half - Yes (+200) 1 unit
Brighton have eight goals in their last five league games with the only blank coming against Manchester City. Four of those goals came in the second half. Manchester United's last five games have seen a total of 18 goals (eight for and ten against), nine of which came in the second half.
In a game that could go either way, and I have no confidence in either team winning any game right now. The draw does appeal but I'll take advantage of the higher odds in playing both teams to score in the second half.
Player to watch: Cristiano Ronaldo
Ronaldo's goals have helped Manchester United's season from being a complete disaster, being responsible for 18 of their 57 goals. He's got an outside chance of winning the Golden Boot (league's top scorer) and has scored in each of his last four league games (scoring six in total).
Tottenham Hotspur (+598) at Liverpool (-217) - 2:45 pm ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 2 Tottenham Hotspur
Liverpool reached the Champions League final, winning their semi-final tie with Villareal 5-2 on Tuesday. They have the FA Cup final next week and are still bidding for an unprecedented quadruple. But they still need Manchester City to slip up and I fear their recent exertions may just see them be the ones to slip up this week.
As we predicted last week, Tottenham bounced back from two games without a goal (or a shot on target) with a comfortable 3-1 win against Leicester City. They have a huge North London Derby with Arsenal on Thursday and will want to get something from this game or risk being out of the top-four race by the end of next week.
Betting pick: Both teams to score & total goals - Yes & over 2.5 (+104) 1 unit
These two played out a 2-2 draw earlier this season and I see a similar game this week. Their last three league meetings have seen both teams scoring and three or more goals scored, something that has happened in eight of their last nine EPL encounters too. Tottenham haven't won at Anfield in more than a decade, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if that run ended too.
Player to watch: Son Heung-min
Only Mo Salah has scored more league goals than Son and the Tottenham man has eight goals in his last six league games. His pace could be the key for the away team and if Tottenham does find a way to leave with at least a point, it's probable that Son would've had something to do with it.
Sunday, May 08th, 2022
Leeds United (+602) at Arsenal (-213) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 1 - 0 Leeds United
Arsenal could go into Sunday's encounter in fifth or in fourth and knowing two wins in the next five days will secure them a top-four finish and a return to Champions League football. After three straight defeats against teams no higher than ninth in the league, they come into this game having beaten Chelsea (3rd), Manchester United (6th) and West Ham United (7th).
Leeds five-game unbeaten run came to an end with a defeat (4-0) to Manchester City last weekend. Despite picking up 11 points from a possible 15 prior to that loss, they still find themselves just two points above the relegation with 18th placed Everton having a game in hand over them.
Betting pick: Player to be carded - Junior Firpo (+150) 1 unit
This is a difficult game to call as Arsenal should win but haven't been at their best despite three straight wins and had to grind out the result last week. Leeds have been more resolute under Jesse Marsch and I expect them to put up a fight on Sunday. So I'm going to play a prop bet and go with Junior Firpo to get carded.
Firpo has been booked ten times this season (tied-most in the league) despite only starting 20 games. He's been booked in five of his last six appearances and with Stuart Dallas out for the remainder of the season after sustaining a nasty injury, he could be in line for a start on Sunday. If he doesn't start, I won't be placing this bet.
Player to watch: Bukayo Saka
Saka has been in excellent form and has been the fifth most fouled player this season. He should be facing off directly against Firpo and Leeds have struggled defensively down their left all season. Saka is one player who could exploit it more than most other players in the league.
Everton (+205) at Leicester City (+148) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 - 2 Everton
Leicester's European challenge ended on Thursday, losing 2-1 on aggregate to Roma at the semi-final stage. With nothing to play for domestically, they've gone winless in their last four league games and will likely make changes to their starting XI this weekend, with a weaker lineup than the one they've been playing in Europe.
Everton's win against Chelsea last week reignited their survival bid and I'm liking the odds of them picking up their second away win of the season against what I expect will be a weakened Leicester team. They've conceded two or more in each of their last seven away games so they will more than likely need to end that streak if they are to take home the three points.
Betting pick: Draw no bet - Everton (+118) 1 unit
I like Everton to take advantage of the situation both teams find themselves in and with plus odds on the 'draw no bet', hedging there seems more sensible. These teams played out a 1-1 draw less than three weeks ago (their rearranged Matchweek 18 game) and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same scoreline here.
Player to watch: Richarlison
If Everton stays up, it'll likely be because of their Brazilian forward, who comes into this game with four goals from his last five games. He was the match-winner last weekend and will probably need to be so again once or twice before the season ends to keep Everton up. It was his injury-time equalizer in the reverse fixture that rescued a point for Everton.
West Ham United (-119) at Norwich City (+356) - 09:00 am ET
Score prediction: Norwich City 1 - 1 West Ham United
Norwich's relegation was confirmed with their defeat at Aston Villa last week and we see so often, that when a team is officially relegated, they begin to play with more freedom and play some of their best football. This Sunday, we may see a similar tale.
West Ham's focus in recent weeks has been on their Europa Cup campaign, but that came to an end on Thursday at the semi-final stage. Their away form in the league has been poor for a while with their last win on the road coming on New Year's Day (just one draw from the six away games since).
Betting pick: Double chance - Norwich City or Draw (+106) 1 unit
Given the circumstances surrounding this game, with Norwich being able to play with some freedom and West Ham having to play after an exhausting European game (that they played with ten men for 70 minutes), I can see the home team winning. But I'll hedge and play the plus odds on the home team getting at least a draw.
Player to watch: Teemu Pukki
Pukki is Norwich's leading scorer with ten goals this season, seven of which have come at home. He's found the net in three of his last four home games. It's unclear where his future lies and whether he stays with Norwich so on a personal level, he'll want to finish the season well and beat his 11-goal haul when Norwich got relegated two seasons ago.
Newcastle United (-556) at Manchester City (+1772) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 2 - 0 Newcastle United
Manchester City suffered a heartbreaking loss at Real Madrid in midweek, ending their hopes of a first Champions League title. Despite a remarkable campaign, they will likely need to win their remaining four league games to avoid ending the season trophyless.
Newcastle United have gone from relegation candidates to likely top-half finishers after their takeover in the Winter. Their four-game-winning run was ended by Liverpool last week and I don't foresee them being able to derail the other title contenders' challenge on Sunday.
Betting pick: Half-time/Full-time - Manchester City/Manchester City (-188) 2 units
Manchester City will be desperate to end the season as Champions and will need to dust themselves off from their midweek heartbreak. I expect them to get off to a fast start and run out comfortable winners and this pick is about the best odds you can find for any such outcome.
Player to watch: Kevin de Bruyne
Manchester City took off de Bruyne when they took a two-goal lead in the tie against Real Madrid on Wednesday and boy did they miss him in extra-time after their late collapse. He should be fresher than most City players and has been used sparingly in the league but with nothing left to play for, one of Europe's best will want to make sure he ends the season with a winner's medal.
Parlays
Draw no bet: Everton, Norwich City and Burnley (+1333) 0.5 units
Total goals over 1.5: Brentford/Southampton, Crystal Palace/Watford, Liverpool/Tottenham Hotspur, Norwich City/West Ham United (+136) 2 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
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