Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2016, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Tier One

Hey look, Clayton Kershaw is the top selection! While I am in no way, shape or form saying that Kershaw is anything less than the top pitcher in the game, there are several candidates who are approaching his level in fantasy. With that being said, nobody is quite there yet, so Kershaw remains alone atop our rankings.

Tier Two

These are the big guns. I am lowest on Max Scherzer apparently, and I have to chalk it up to my new-found love for Jake Arrieta and my ongoing infatuation with Chris Sale. That's not to say I don't like Scherzer--he's one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game while maintaining a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. The 31-year-old ace is still in his physical prime, but I like to go with younger guys when drafting ace pitchers. Arrieta just turned 30 and has now been lights-out for two straight years, but Chris Sale's ability to utterly dominate hitters on both sides of the plate gives him the edge over both Scherzer and Arrieta.

Jeff, Brad and I all seem to be lower on David Price, and my reasoning is simple--Fenway ain't the Trop or Comerica. While it's true Price thrived in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, I truly think he's due for some regression. Even his regressed stats will likely keep him in the top 10, but I simply like the upside of pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Dallas Keuchel more.

Tier Three 

There are still plenty of bona fide aces to be found in the third tier. As I previously mentioned, I love Dallas Keuchel's upside given his approach and potential on what should be a World Series-contending Astros team. Many so-called experts knock Keuchel over his lack of strikeouts, and while it is true he pitches to contact using a vicious sinker, he is no slouch in the arena of making batters miss. In his Cy Young 2015 campaign, Keuchel struck out 216 batters across 232 innings, good for an 8.4 K/9 rate--the highest of his career. At age 28, The Astros ace is still in his physical prime and should be poised to keep runs off the board and win ballgames with regularity in 2016.

Jeepers, one bad year and everybody throws Felix Hernandez away like yesterday's junk mail. The Mariners' ace will be 30 on April 8th, and I say he'll make his return to the top 10 in 2016. Recency bias can fool even the sharpest of analysts, and the stinging memories of his 31-pitch, eight-run meltdown on June 13th and a 10-run outing in mid-August certainly didn't help his statline. By pretty much every standard, 2015 was his worst campaign since 2008. However, that lack of production can pretty much be isolated to the second half of the season. Before the All-Star break, Hernandez posted a 2.84 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP across 117.1 innings--numbers that indicate he still has the electric stuff that has made him a perennial All-Star. I'm writing off 2015 and believing (praying) that King Felix puts the crown back on this year.

Tier Four

This is where things start to get dicey. I want to point out two veterans here--one that I'm high on and one on whom I'm low.

Adam Wainwright is clearly not the pitcher he once was. He will never again come close to striking out 200 batters, and I don't see him ever cracking 17 wins again. He will be returning off an Achilles injury that caused him to miss the bulk of the 2015 season, and that shouldn't affect his ability to pitch at all (he even came back briefly in relief last September/October). Waino is closer to "crafty veteran" status than "fantasy ace", as his game is now heavily reliant on exceptional control and pitching to ground balls, but there are several factors that should keep him in the SP3 category. The Cardinals are going to find a way to win 92 games, and Wainwright should still be able to lock down 13-15 victories. He plays in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and has a solid defense behind him, and at the end of the season he should have an ERA in the low-3.00s and a very solid WHIP. I say don't give up on @UncleCharlie50 just yet.

Francisco Liriano, on the other hand, I'm avoiding. The former Minnesota phenom revitalized his career once he came to Pittsburgh, and should be the de facto number two in their rotation behind young flamethrower Gerrit Cole.  While Liriano does put up an above-average K-rate, he rarely goes deep into games--he only reached seven innings pitched 11 times out of 31 starts last season. This is a by-product of his high WHIP, which averages out to 1.24 during his three seasons in Pittsburgh. His K-rate has gone up in each of those three years, and by sheer probability I think he's due for some regression. Like Wainwright, he should still be a fantasy SP3 in 2016, but I don't like taking a chance on a guy who plays with fire early and often. Did I mention last year was his first healthy season since 'Nam?

Tier Five

I'll take some briefer looks here in an effort to get to more pitchers.

Damn if I don't love me some Yu Darvish. I'm entirely okay taking a risk on him in any draft if you have a DL spot available. He should be back my mid-May, and that gives him plenty of time to be an impact player for you down the stretch. He's averaged 11.2 K/9 in his MLB career--me likey.

You know what makes me nervous? Masahiro Tanaka's elbow. It's been held together with duct tape and Krazy glue since he came to the MLB, and I am entirely okay with letting someone else gamble on that arm.

The Yankee I am all-in on is Luis Severino. The 22-year-old righty was the ace the Yankees needed in 2015 (not the one they deserved), and he should be ready to rock right from the gate as the third option behind Tanaka and Michael Pineda. If (when) Tanaka's elbow gives out, I see Severino stepping up and becoming a dominant force in the American League East.

Patrick Corbin was dynamite for the Diamondbacks in 2013, and was poised to do it again until he succumbed to the dreaded UCL injury in Spring Training 2014. He came back in mid-2015 and actually pitched at a higher level than most predicted for someone coming off Tommy John surgery, especially in the control department. He should be a solid SP4 in 2016 if he can take another step in the right direction on the road back from his injury.

I traded away Jeff Samardzija in the preseason last year (for a package involving both Chris Archer and Josh Donaldson), and boy howdy did that work out. Shark was abysmal last year on every level, but I think the change to the National League and the more pitcher-friendly confines of AT&T Park can get him back on the right track. Roll the dice on Samardzija this year--it sure won't cost you much.

Starting Pitcher Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)

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