RADIO
Fantasy drafts might be in the books and you might feel stuck in a bit of a purgatory state until Week 1, but we can still be making upgrades to our roster. A lot of the time, players fall through the cracks, especially if you drafted 1-2 weeks ago.
Fantasy managers should never be satisfied with their lineup. Scouring the waiver wire is a vastly underrated aspect of success in fantasy football. While most drafts are in the books or will be shortly, there are plenty of names sitting on waiver wires that shouldn’t be.
With Week 1, just over a week away, I’ve compiled a list of quality players that can be found on your league’s waiver wire that shouldn’t be. If you have any specific waiver wire questions, give me a follow on X, formerly known as Twitter @RobFFSlayer, and don’t be afraid to reach out. I’ll be completing the waiver wire column all year here at RotoBaller and I hope to help as many as possible to win your fantasy football league.
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Quarterbacks - Waiver Wire Options
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers - 55% Rostered
There’s no reason to think Purdy is going to keep throwing touchdowns at a 7.6% clip, which was 1.3% higher than Patrick Mahomes, but fantasy managers don’t need him to. He’s not being selected in the first five rounds or even the first 10 rounds. In fact, as you can see from his rostered percentage, in 45% of leagues he’s going completely undrafted. Forget about the likely regression, he’s a waiver wire add. There’s no risk.
However, in games Purdy has started and finished, he’s ended as the QB8, QB14, QB13, QB9, and QB5. In 2021, when Jimmy Garoppolo started 15 games for the 49ers, he finished as the QB16 in PPG average. Purdy is unlikely to be a league winner, but in Superflex leagues, Purdy should absolutely be rostered. Even in 1QB leagues, he looks to be a quality QB2 with weekly upside due to the offense he’s directing.
When Jimmy G finished as QB16 in 2021, there was no Christian McCaffrey. The weapons in San Francisco are ridiculous. Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and CMC are very likely the best four skilled offensive players on any one singular team in the NFL. Head coach Kyle Shanahan does a magnificent job of creating an offense for those players to do the heavy lifting and Purdy will reap the benefits.
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers - 34% Rostered
There’s no way to sugarcoat it – Pickett was bad last year as a rookie. Really bad. If you’re hesitant to trust giving him a roster spot on your team, I get it. However, we need to give credit where credit is due. Pickett has been absolutely sensational in the preseason.
Kenny Pickett this preseason:
🟡 94.7 PFF Grade
🟡 13/15
🟡 199 yards
🟡 2 TDs/0 INTs
🟡 158.3 PERFECT passer rating pic.twitter.com/dbiNuvQYr1— PFF (@PFF) August 25, 2023
I am fully aware it’s “just” the preseason and maybe we need to pump the brakes. However, when we pump the brakes and take a wait-and-see approach, we can miss good things because other league mates may not be as cautious.
In 2021, offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s first with the team, Pittsburgh finished fourth in pass attempts. Last season, despite starting Mitchell Trubisky and then making a quarterback switch to Pickett who vastly underperformed, the team still finished 16th in pass attempts. Canada wants to throw the ball. He’s told us as much through his actions and they’ve got the weapons to do it.
Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Allen Robinson II, Calvin Austin III, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington are a very good group of pass-catchers. Not only that, but Pittsburgh boasts a solid 1-2 punch in the backfield with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
They’ve also significantly upgraded the offensive line by drafting Broderick Jones in this year’s draft and signing Pro Bowl alternate guard, Isaac Seumalo. This is an underrated offense with a lot of good pieces in place. With the weapons around him and the volume Canada is likely to give him, Pickett could surprise this season.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals - 26% Rostered
With our late-round draft picks, we should all be chasing upside. Who was the highest ceiling? You’ll find few players who have a higher ceiling than Murray. We are currently playing fantasy football in the age of the quarterback.
Years ago, the strategy of waiting on a quarterback was excellent because there were so few that were true difference-makers. Those days are gone. Quarterbacks are putting up video game numbers and they’ve never been as valuable as they are today and Murray is one of those quarterbacks.
Which QBs have scored 25+ fantasy points at the highest rate since 2020? (regular season only)
- Baker with more ceiling games than Derek Carr
- Tannehill/Dak surprisingly high pic.twitter.com/CVOfmURrGV— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) July 31, 2023
We all know the reason Murray isn’t being drafted right now. He’s recovering from a torn ACL and is questionable for Week 1. Some think he might not play at all. He’s going to play and it’s going to be sooner than most think. He’ll start the season on the PUP list, but I expect a return to action in Week 5.
He may not run as much as he used to right away, but as a waiver wire, I’m not so much adding him for Week 5, but rather for Week 15. The previous tweet (what do we call them now?) showcased his weekly upside, but simply put, he’s been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks of all time on a PPG basis.
Here are the top 5 quarterbacks of all time in fantasy points per game, per @pfref:
1. Patrick Mahomes - 23.34
2. Josh Allen - 21.95
3. Deshaun Watson - 21.26
4. Kyler Murray - 20.44
5. Justin Herbert - 20.26— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) August 25, 2023
If your league has an IR, Murray needs to be there. He’s got top-five upside and is one of the few quarterbacks who can compete with the Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, and Lamar’s of the world.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders - 21% Rostered
Howell’s draft capital is a bit of a red flag, but looking at his collegiate stats from a Power-Five conference, it’s hard to believe he didn’t go much earlier. In three years as North Carolina’s starter, Howell completed 63.8% of his passes, averaged 278 passing yards per game, and threw 92 touchdowns to just 23 interceptions. His preseason performance appears as though he’s picking up right where he left off as a Tar Heel.
Sam Howell this preseason:
* 75.7% completion rate
* 7.2 yards per attempt
* 3 TDs
* 0 INTs
* 25 rushing yards— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 22, 2023
For fantasy purposes, he has an underappreciated aspect to his game. In his final year at UNC, he rushed 183 times for 828 yards, and 11 rushing scores. All three numbers were higher than what Anthony Richardson did last year at Florida. I’m not saying he’s a better rusher than Richardson (I’m not), but I am just saying…it’s not nothing.
Fantasy managers should expect a more pass-heavy approach in Washington than in recent years with the hire of former Chiefs’ offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy. The offensive weapons for the Commanders also should excite fantasy managers. Howell has the tools to succeed. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson look like a great 1-2 receiver combination and their talent level will make Howell’s job much more manageable.
Others to consider: Derek Carr - New Orleans Saints (46%), Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers (30%), Ryan Tannehill - Tennessee Titans (9%)
Running Backs - Waiver Wire Options
Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles - 53% Rostered
Fantasy managers don’t really know what to expect out of the Eagles backfield. Many, myself included, expected Rashaad Penny to be the early-down grinder with D'Andre Swift operating as the primary pass-catcher. That would have left Gainwell and Boston Scott as pure backups, but that’s not the way the preseason has gone.
Some analysts are confident it’s just because the coaches don’t want to overwork Penny and Swift, but multiple beat writers and journalists who cover the team have been saying that Gainwell is going to be a lot more involved than initially thought.
"I’d still guess that Swift ends up with more touches but Gainwell is going to be close."
Rashaad Penny "shouldn’t be a high-volume runner but I’m officially intrigued to see what he can do behind the Eagles’ offensive line."https://t.co/LPOorPpWUa
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 27, 2023
We simply need to accept that we don’t honestly know how this backfield is going to play out. However, what we do know is that Philadelphia has arguably the best offensive line in the NFL, and their offense is widely viewed as a top-five unit, even with the questions at running back. This means there is a ton of value to be had in this backfield and fantasy managers should be targeting it.
Gainwell is a third-year player who has been in the offense before. He’s young and he knows the system more than Swift and Penny. Could he get more run than fantasy analysts originally thought? Absolutely, and we should be embracing the fact that our original projections may have been wrong. The fact of the matter is, that this is an ambiguous backfield and each one (sans Scott) deserves plenty of dart throws.
Raheem Mostert (51%) and Jeff Wilson Jr. (34%), Miami Dolphins
These numbers blow my mind. People...Mostert and Wilson are the 1A and 1B starters on a top-10 offense. Yes, I get it, there are Jonathan Taylor rumors, but what’s been reported is that the Colts don’t really want to trade him. They actually have budgeted and planned to pay him.
They just don’t want to do it yet. They want to see him get healthy. If they want to pay him and have budgeted for it, they aren’t going to give him away for free, and more importantly, they’re unlikely to compromise on their asking price: first-round pick value. My guess is Taylor remains in Indy.
The second player driving down these percentages is rookie Devon Achane. However, he’s a 195-pound rookie who is likely to miss the first couple of weeks due to an injury. All of this makes Mostert and Wilson absolute slam dunks at their current prices and priority waiver wire adds.
Miami running backs combined for 329 carries, 1,493 rushing yards, and nine rushing scores last year. They also chipped in 90 targets, 60 receptions, 428 receiving yards, and four receiving scores. Mostert finished as a top-30 RB in half-PPR scoring in eight out of 16 weeks. He also had weeks where he finished as the RB35, RB35, RB31, and RB36. Therefore, he finished as an RB3 in 12 out of 16 weeks. Wilson played with Miami for six games but was injured for two of them. In the other four games, he finished as a top-26 RB in all four contests.
Both of these guys are weekly RB2/3 starts as long as JT doesn’t end up in Miami, which at this time, seems like the most likely outcome. Achane is unlikely to carve out a huge role as a rookie.
***Update***
Wilson has since been put on IR meaning he’ll be out for the first four weeks. This makes Mostert a must-add in all league sizes. For the opening four weeks of the season, Mostert will often find himself ranked as a top-24 running back. He’ll command the lions’ share of the running back touches inside a top-10 offense, making him extremely valuable. Not to mention, his Week 1 matchup is very juicy.
While De’Von Achane will likely have a role, he’s getting over a recent shoulder injury and is still just a rookie. Mostert looks locked into 15+ touches for the first month of the season, which makes him one of the most valuable waiver wire players currently available.
Wilson’s IR move shouldn’t completely have you ignoring him though. Reports indicate he’s expected to return in Week 5 and when he does, he’s likely to have a role in this backfield. He performed as a weekly RB2 in his short stint with Miami last year and that kind of value should find its way to a lot of benches in 12 team leagues or larger. If you’re able to drop your kicker, defense, or backup tight end to stash Wilson on IR, I’d highly recommend it. You might just be stashing a top-30 RB.
Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars - 44% Rostered
Throughout training camp, the reports on Bigsby have been glowing. He’s been excellent in practice and that has carried over to the preseason. In the first two preseason games, he had 22 carries for 122 yards, a 5.5 YPC average. That production led to more snaps with the starters in their final tuneup before the regular season.
Jaguars snaps with the starters
Tank Bigsby 🚀 pic.twitter.com/der4teRmVX
— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) August 27, 2023
Fantasy managers do need to keep their expectations in check to some extent. Especially since Bigsby fumbled into the end zone on a carry from the five-yard line. However, Bigsby has shown enough to demonstrate that he’s a good player. If Bigsby operates with a 35-40% snap share, he could provide RB4 stand-alone value and be more valuable than just a pure handcuff, such as someone like Tyjae Spears with the Titans.
If Travis Etienne were to get hurt, Bigsby would be looking at a monster role on one of the better offenses in the league. That contingent value is worthwhile to have on your bench. Not only that, but he should see 8-10 touches per game, which should give some level of stand-alone value.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers - 40%
Everything that is true of about Bigsby, is true for Warren, as well. He’s proven himself to be a quality player and his performance has been rewarded this preseason where he’s mixed in frequently with the starters.
Jaylen Warren continues to look fantastic.
Pittsburgh sticking to their guns on Najee as No. 1 in Week 3 of the preseason.
Najee: 64% snaps, 57% rush attempts, short yardage, and long down distance.
Shaping up like the old Zeke vs. Pollard situation.
Patience required. pic.twitter.com/XPgrTeNZmv
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 25, 2023
Much like Bigsby, Warren is an elite handcuff who is likely to provide RB4 standalone value. The Steelers appear to be committed to Najee Harris as their RB1 and given Mike Tomlin’s propensity for having a bellcow running back, we shouldn’t expect that to change in short order.
However, Warren well played last year and he’s continued that in the preseason. If Harris’ efficiency doesn’t improve in year three, Tomlin could start to give Warren more work and eventually make this a 1A and 1B backfield.
Deon Jackson (9%) and Evan Hull (2%), Indianapolis Colts
Look, I don’t like putting these guys here, but the reality is even if Jonathan Taylor stays in Indianapolis, he may not play Week 1. For starters, he’s still on the PUP list. That could change later today, but even if it does, there’s no guarantee JT will suit up for the first game or play a full allotment of snaps.
I’d rather avoid this situation if at all possible, but if you took Alvin Kamara and don’t have much of a backup plan, I guess one of these players is worth a dart throw. Although, truthfully, there’s very little to get excited about here. We’re essentially picking them because there’s a chance of them being the starter. I’m just not sure how much that means.
Jackson is likely the early-down grinder who will handle short-yardage and goal-line situations. However, the Colts’ offense looks like it could struggle and Anthony Richardson is a threat to steal those high-value touches too.
Hull will likely be the backup who mixes in and handles third-downs, the two-minute drill, and long down and distance. The problem with that is, that Richardson is unlikely to dump down very much. We’ve seen that through the preseason. If you’re desperate, they may be worth a swing, but the upside is minimal.
Others to consider (Pure Handcuffs): Devin Singletary - Houston Texans (28%), Chuba Hubbard - Carolina Panthers (17%), Joshua Kelley - Los Angeles Chargers (4%), Tyjae Spears - Tennessee Titans (12%)
Wide Receivers - Waiver Wire Options
Nico Collins, Houston Texans - 46% Rostered
When you glance at Collins' 2022 stats, you may be discouraged or wondering what the offseason hype is all about. However, we need to remember that he missed several games due to injury and that's obviously going to impact his final stat line.
Not only that, but his quarterback, Davis Mills, was basically just as bad as Zach Wilson. Only 62% of his targets were deemed catchable. It's not a stretch to think that rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud should be a significant upgrade at quarterback. If that wasn't enough to be optimistic, check out what he did last season.
WR: Nico Collins - WR61
Compared to the last 10 years of data:
*WR3-worthy target share and target rate
*WR1-worthy air yards share
*WR3-worthy yards per route
*WR3-worthy PFF receiving gradePosted a 24% target share WITH Brandin Cooks on the field, who is now gone.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) June 24, 2023
The underlying metrics look much stronger for Collins than they may have originally appeared when first glancing at his final stat line. Entering his third season, the Texans' are likely to have upgraded their quarterback play. Based on the pieces around Collins, there's every reason to believe he should become Stroud's top target.
C.J. Stroud played nine drives this preseason.
Nico Collins was his WR1:
91% route participation
30% target share 👀👀👀
34% air yards shareNico made big strides in Year 2 and is off to a good start.
Borderline WR3 with upside if Stroud surprises.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 28, 2023
Collins could finish as a top-36 receiver this season and based on his preseason ADP and WR ranking, that would be a monster steal for anyone that drafted him. If you're able to add him off of waivers, that's an even bigger win, and should he be available, you should rectify that immediately.
Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers - 13% Rostered
Adam Thielen is washed. He's done. D.J. Chark is hurt. Terrace Marshall has face-planted for two years running. Hayden Hurst is a journeyman tight end who has never done much of anything.
Mingo is a high second-round pick who has run with the starters for all three preseason games. He has run a route on 29 of Bryce Young's 31 dropbacks. That is some elite opportunity and he's done well with it.
Bryce Young's target distribution this preseason (including plays negated by penalty):
Adam Thielen - 8
Jonathan Mingo - 5
D.J. Chark - 4
Hayden Hurst - 2
Derek Wright - 2
Laviska Shenault - 1
Chuba Hubbard - 1
Ian Thomas - 1
Raheem Blackshear - 1— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) August 26, 2023
He's posted a 20% target share and could very well operate as Young's second target early in the season. While we should expect Thielen's veteran status to lead the way early, Mingo could very easily leapfrog Thielen and have a big second half of the season. With his opportunity, it could happen even earlier. Mingo has the role and pedigree to pop in year one. If you're looking to swing for the fences, Mingo is it.
Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos - 26% Rostered
The Denver Broncos receivers are once again being hit hard by injuries. Tim Patrick is again out for the season and Jerry Jeudy is dealing with a semi-significant hamstring injury that could cost him the first few weeks of the season. This will make Mims a starter by default for the early portion of the season.
Fellow starter Courtland Sutton has struggled since his return from a torn ACL he suffered in the 2020 season. There's a pathway to Mims being Russell Wilson's secondary target throughout the entire season.
Marvin Mims is going to open the season as a starter for Denver after a rocky offseason for that position group. There's a chance if he develops, he ends it established as the best WR on the roster.
Some #ReceptionPerception positive Indicators on Mims...
- 72.2% success rate… pic.twitter.com/VEmb6BdZQB
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 28, 2023
Mims is an analytical darling and was the first pick in the Sean Payton era and should be someone that fantasy managers are prioritizing as a high-upside bench stash. During Jeudy's absence, while Mims is getting his feet wet, he's likely to operate as Wilson's second target. Once Jeudy returns, it's possible he could overtake Sutton. If nothing else, Mims is going to be a big-play receiver who will provide fantasy managers will several boom weeks.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers - 32% Rostered
While teammate Christian Watson steals most of the headlines, Doubs is someone fantasy managers should be prioritizing as well. For one, he’s a locked-in starter who is going to be running a bunch of routes. The target competition is relatively weak in Green Bay, giving Doubs the opportunity to carve a decent piece of the pie. On top of all that, he might just be good too.
#Packers WR Romeo Doubs over 19 passing snaps this preseason:
4 targets
4 catches
3/3 contested catches
1 TD, 3 first downs
18.3 yards/catch
3.84 yards/route run
158.3 passer rating when targeted pic.twitter.com/a0FUslRPzJ— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) August 20, 2023
There’s a large group of analysts who are fairly convinced Jordan Love will be bad. Based on what, I have no idea. The fact he couldn’t get on the field for three years behind a back-to-back MVP? Because he was a first-round draft pick? Because one of the most successful and best-run organizations over the past 30 years decided to trade Aaron Rodgers to give him the chance to start? I truly have no idea. The reality is, Love might actually be quite good and if that’s the case, Doubs could be a quality player to have on your benches.
Tight end Luke Musgrave is just a rookie. Rookie tight ends have historically struggled in year one, and even though Musgrave looks like he might buck the trend, he might not. Fellow rookie Jayden Reed looks to be the team’s slot receiver, which locks Doubs into the second role. On top of that, Watson hasn’t shown himself to be a true target hog, giving Doubs plenty of opportunity this season.
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions - 37% Rostered
The Lions are expected to be a top-10 scoring offense this season. Former Lion Jamaal Williams scored 17 rushing touchdowns last year with all but one coming inside of 15 yards. It’s quite possible some of their rushing scores turn into Jared Goff touchdowns this season. On top of that, the second and third receivers on the team are Marvin Jones Jr. and Josh Reynolds. Needless to say, the Lions desperately need a receiver opposite Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams’ situation really could not get much better.
The problem… he missed almost the entire 2022 season rehabbing a torn ACL and is now suspended for the first six games of this year due to gambling. The missed playing and practice time isn’t going to happen get better or prove to the coaches he deserves a bigger role.
However, Detroit traded up to 12 to select him in the 2022 NFL Draft, indicating they really liked him as a player. The Lions’ offense could use a deep threat and after ARSB, the target hierarchy is wide open. If you’re able to stash Williams on IR, his draft pedigree and talent profile make that a worthwhile investment.
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams - 8% Rostered
Jefferson struggled with injuries last year and because of that, he’s been mostly forgotten about in Los Angeles. However, in 2021, he had 89 targets, 50 receptions, 802 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. He accomplished this working as the team’s clear third option behind Cooper Kupp, who was in the middle of the best WR season of all time, and the duo of Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr.
“People forget Van Jefferson was really good in 2021.”@MattHarmon_BYB believes @VanJefferson12 is an underrated deep vertical route runner 📈 pic.twitter.com/1Hipea8DR9
— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) August 10, 2023
The best receiver behind him is… Tutu Atwell? Ben Skowronek? Fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua? The competition is almost nonexistent. The tight end is the very mid, Tyler Higbee and they also employ a poor pass-catching back in Cam Akers.
The Rams, on paper, have one of the worst defenses in the league. Their secondary could possibly be the worst. That’s likely to put Matthew Stafford and company behind on the scoreboard and force them into a heavy pass game script. All of this is shaping up to a scenario where Jefferson finishes with 100-110 targets. As a deep ball threat, that volume will give him plenty of opportunity to pop almost any week.
My 2 cents on Van Jefferson this Szn
🔸WR63 🐶
🔸Healthy ☑️
🔸Very low-risk 👌🏾
🔸Deep Threat 💨 pic.twitter.com/An5tbdpMZ7— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) July 7, 2023
Darius Slayton, New York Giants - 4% Rostered
With a new coaching regime in New York last season, it took Slayton a little while to earn his way onto the field. Injuries to men above him also played a part, but no one can deny how well he played once he got the chance.
During Weeks 5-17, Slayton was the WR31 in total points (WR39 points per game) averaging 8.8 fantasy points, 59 receiving yards and nearly six targets per game (20% target share).
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 15, 2023
Slayton operated as Daniel Jones’ top target last year, a role that will now be taken over by Darren Waller. However, that doesn’t mean that Slayton can’t be a useful player to have on your bench. He finished as a WR3 in 54% of that sample.
His 1.70 yards per route run represented a career-high and he also finished as a top-36 WR in 54% of his 13 contests (seven games).
That was equal to the likes of Mike Evans, Michael Pittman Jr., Jerry Jeudy, Mike Williams, Adam Thielen and Marquise Brown.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 15, 2023
Fantasy managers should be expecting an uptick in passing volume this year with the receiving additions they’ve made. It’s also reasonable to expect more consistency and efficiency from Jones and the offense as a whole, now entering the second season under Brian Daboll.
Others to consider: Rashee Rice - Kansas City Chiefs (44%), Zay Jones - Jacksonville Jaguars (32%), Michael Gallup - Dallas Cowboys (30%), Jalin Hyatt - New York Giants (19%), DeVante Parker - New England Patriots (4%), Isaiah Hodgins - New York Giants (7%), Tank Dell - Houston Texans (7%)
Tight Ends - Waiver Wire Options
Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers - 14% Rostered
Musgrave’s ADP has steadily been climbing since the preseason started and there’s good reason for that. The reality is, it’s still not high enough.
Green Bay Packers target distribution on 37 Jordan Love dropbacks:
- Whewwwie how about an 84% route involvement rate and 24% target share for Luke Musgrave? That'll work
- Romeo Doubs only played two games. He ran a route on all 19 of Love's dropbacks during the first two games pic.twitter.com/oiLOsEus1O— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 28, 2023
It’s just the preseason and based on 37 dropbacks, we’re roughly talking the equivalent of one game, but Musgrave had the highest target share and target per route run. He also had an elite 84% route participation. Musgrave is going to play and play a ton. Not only that, but the team clearly has intentions of utilizing his size and speed regularly and in unique situations.
— Matt (@KuhnwaldMatt) August 16, 2023
If he’s available and you decide to wait on a tight end, Musgrave should be a priority add. He’s got the role and the lack of target competition to finish as a TE1 as a rookie.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints - 32% Rostered
Juwan Johnson is a converted wide receiver with size and speed. This is just the kind of “tight end” fantasy managers should want on their roster. There’s a bit of a risk with Johnson this year because of the target competition. We know Chris Olave will be the top target, but what happens after that? Will it be Michael Thomas? Alvin Kamara? Johnson? This could lead to him being a boom or bust player, but Thomas hasn’t been healthy in two and a half years and might never be the same.
“The rapport between Derek Carr and Juwan Johnson continues to impress. They connected four times in 11-on-11 drills Friday, including a gorgeous 35-touchdown pass that was perfectly placed and hit Johnson in stride behind linebacker Eric Kendricks.” https://t.co/tJfImis1rc
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) August 18, 2023
Johnson has been a favorite target of Carr’s during the offseason. Johnson finished tied for third in touchdowns last year, showing fantasy managers he’s got a knack for the big play, which at tight end, is crucial. This Saints’ offense should be much improved this season and Johnson could reap the benefits.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots - 14% Rostered
Henry burned a lot of fantasy managers last year, but to be fair, there are only a handful of football players on the planet who could manage to still be good with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge involved in the offensive planning. For the most part, every offensive Patriot player should be getting a pass for last season. The Patriots brought in Mike Gesicki this offseason, who could eventually end up being a waiver-wire addition, but he’s been hurt in camp recently, and Henry has been dominant.
Hate overreacting (or reacting at all) to "X guy is playing great at camp." It's so often meaningless.
But can't deny there's been a steady stream of glowing reports on Hunter Henry. pic.twitter.com/MvbwmPGphZ
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) August 2, 2023
The last time the new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien was in New England, the Patriots used 12 personnel at one of the highest rates in the NFL at that time. Of course, having Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez kind of dictated that. However, the team’s top receivers are only DeVante Parker and JuJu Smith-Schuster, which will likely dictate the tight ends being heavily involved again.
Henry is unlikely to be a target hog and he’s unlikely to rack up a bunch of yardage, but he’s been a favorite of Mac Jones in the red zone during training camp and it shouldn’t be surprising if he finishes with 7-9 touchdowns again this season, like he did in 2021.
Hayden Hurst, Carolina Panthers - 11% Rostered
There isn't much to be excited about Hurst, but he could prove to be a dependable volume asset in 2023. The Panthers' receivers leave a lot to be desired. There's the 33-year-old Adam Thielen who just posted the 51st-worst yard per route run average out of 52 receivers with at least 75 targets. D.J. Chark is also on the team but is currently dealing with a hamstring injury. Then there's second-round rookie, Jonathan Mingo. While Mingo was listed as a receiver addition, there's no guarantee he'll be good, much less be good in year one. He's still a worthwhile waiver wire add because that could happen, but it also might not. Then there's running back Miles Sanders. Out of 51 running backs with at least 25 targets, he ranked 51st.
Hurst has never been all that good himself, but the target competition is lacking and Hurst should be a full-time player. He's likely going to play 80% of the snaps and have a route participation close to 75%. That kind of opportunity and lack of target competition could make Hurst a decent tight end in full-PPR leagues where he's likely to have more value. The Panthers' offense could struggle in year one, but Hurst could become a dependable, but unexciting option at the tight end position.
Tyler Conklin, New York Jets - 7% Rostered
Conklin has back-to-back seasons of 87 targets, at least 58 receptions, and more than 550 receiving yards. There are just four tight ends who have cleared all three criteria in each of the last two seasons. Those include Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dalton Schultz, and Conklin. Pretty impressive stuff. After catching passes from Kirk Cousins in 2021 and the awful trio the Jets ran out there last year, he'll now be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers. When the season started it seemed as though Conklin would likely get lost among all the new faces in New York, his prospects have certainly improved in the last week.
Corey Davis retired and it was reported that Randall Cobb was likely to see more time as the slot receiver than Mecole Hardman. Allen Lazard is also currently nursing a shoulder injury that could limit him in Week 1. Conklin would be much higher if he and fellow tight end, C.J. Uzomah hadn't been splitting so many reps this preseason. That's the one concern with him this year.
Last year, Uzomah missed most of the season allowing Conklin to act as the primary and almost singular pass-catching tight end. Based on preseason utilization, it appears as though it will be more of a committee approach. Fantasy managers should still expect Conklin to be the preferred option, but spilling reps and routes will limit his upside. Still, with the lack of target competition and quarterback upgrade he's looking at this season, Conklin is a worthwhile dart throw if you're desperate at tight end.
Others to consider: Jake Ferguson - Dallas Cowboys (24%), Michael Mayer - Las Vegas Raiders (19%), Mike Gesicki - New England Patriots (11%), Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals (4%), Cade Otton - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2%)
Team Defense - Waiver Wire Options
Green Bay Packers - 36% Rostered
The Packers' defense opens up the season facing off against Justin Fields and the revamped Chicago Bears’ offense. Green Bay has long had trouble with mobile quarterbacks, but Fields is far from a polished passer and Chicago’s offensive line is still a work in progress.
The Packers have the front seven to get after Fields, who had the highest sack percentage of all quarterbacks last season. They also have a talented group of cornerbacks that should have the opportunity to turn Fields over a time or two. This is a divisional matchup between two young quarterbacks just trying to figure it out. That likely means a low-scoring game. The Packers make a quality starter in Week 1.
Jacksonville Jaguars - 17% Rostered
The Jaguars open up against the Indianapolis Colts. Taylor may or may not be a Colt by Week 1, which would be a huge hit to their offense. Even if he is, he could very likely be on a snap count. Anthony Richardson could eventually be a really good player, but he’s unlikely to be that in year one.
He didn’t even complete half of his passes this preseason and he’s likely to give Jacksonville plenty of errant and bad passes to capitalize on. The Colts’ offensive line struggled mightily last season and it looks like a sore spot again for the team. Jacksonville’s pass rush, especially if their offense is able to get ahead on the scoreboard, should have ample opportunities to create problems in the backfield in a plus matchup.
Seattle Seahawks - 12% Rostered
The Seahawks are a defense on the rise. They were surprisingly good last season and now, most of their young starters are another year older. They also brought back Bobby Wagner and could be a top-10 unit this year. They’ll go up against the Rams in Week 1.
Los Angeles’ offense is basically Matthew Stafford to Cooper Kupp. The Rams are leaking secondary playmakers and their offensive line still looks to be a disaster. The Seahawks defense should have plenty of chances to sack Stafford and if they’re able to limit Kupp in the passing game, the Rams will struggle to put up points.
New York Giants - 4% Rostered
If you have a quality defense for Week 1 and a roster spot open, adding the Giants for Week 2 isn’t a terrible idea. They’ll take on the Arizona Cardinals in the second week of the NFL season. News recently came out indicating Kyler Murray will be out on the PUP list and long-time backup, Colt McCoy was cut. That means newcomer Joshua Dobbs or rookie, Clayton Tune will start at quarterback. Either way, it’s a matchup to target.
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