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The good news is that there are more starters to feel confident about this week than usual. It is still early enough that a bad start or two can skew stats and disguise a quality pitcher who occasionally has an off day.
Every streamer brings a degree of risk, which is why they are available on the waiver wire in the first place. The key is to pick the right players at the right time by looking beyond season totals or last 30 stats.
As a reminder, each week this fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column will identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week, ahead of the Sunday night waiver wire runs for leagues with weekly transactions. This list will be limited to players under 50% rostered in Yahoo! and divided into three sections based on recommendation levels: solid bets, risky picks, and must-avoids.
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Solid Two-Start Pitcher Streamers
Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals - 49% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @ARI, @MIN
You know what you're getting at least. Greinke resides in the first percentile in K% but 97th percentile in BB%. He's only been hit hard once this season, otherwise keeping his ratios nice and tidy at a 3.48 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His .322 xBA is unsightly but the Royals boast one of the better defenses in the league and he never puts himself in trouble. It's hard to imagine someone who induces a 6.4% swinging strike rate can be considered a quality pitcher but Greinke has always been an anomaly. He's already faced Minnesota once this year. limiting them to one run over five innings back on April 21 and Arizona won't pose a stiff test.
Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants - 46% rostered
Scheduled Starts: vs NYM, @CIN
Cobb did the Coors Field thing last week and it went as expected. Despite getting lit up by the Rockies, his Statcast page is still a sea of red. Cobb has perhaps the biggest discrepancy between actual ERA (5.61) and xERA (1.83). His 28.1% K% is by far a career-high and shows no signs of slowing. He will be at home to face the Mets and then gets a juicy matchup with the Reds late in the week.
Steven Matz, St. Louis Cardinals - 33% rostered
Scheduled Starts: vs TOR, vs MIL
Last week's recommendation was a success; Matz struck out seven while walking none in each of his two starts, allowing three ER and two ER respectively. He didn't earn a victory as much as it was deserved but the Cards' offense is coming around. He should keep the train rolling this week, although the matchups won't be as good.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgers - 31% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @WAS, @ARI
Favorable schedule aside, Anderson has been underappreciated this season. A disastrous start against Philadelphia the other day has skewed strong season-long performances. That outing tacked on a run and a half to his ERA but even in a rough day, he refused to walk a batter. Anderson has a 34-5 K-BB rate on the year and, that one outing excluded, has been getting better as the season goes on.
His pitch count has steadily moved up with each start; in his latest outing he went a season-high seven innings and allowed two runs while striking out seven and walking none. That came against the same D-Backs team he'll face again this week after taking on Washington. Anderson should see his rostered percentage climb after this week and may graduate him from the streamer category.
Dane Dunning, Texas Rangers - 14% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @LAA, @OAK
This former Gator is never going to blow anyone away with his pitch arsenal and a sinker that averages 90 MPH. He does sport a four-pitch mix that features an effective sinker which has a .194 BAA and .256 wOBA this year. He is a true groundball pitcher that eats through innings effectively. He's managed to keep his K-rate at about a batter per inning which adds up over time. His intra-division schedule this week includes the deadly Angels lineup, although he's already faced them twice this season relatively unscathed. In fact, his last appearance came against the Halos and he held them to two runs on three hits over six innings. Dunning is the definition of 'solid streamer.'
Kyle Freeland, Colorado Rockies - 6% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @PIT, @WAS
Freeland won't often be recommended based on his lackluster expected stats and propensity to give up hits in bunches. He is still capable of putting together a good outing on occasion, especially against lesser competition. Earlier this month, Freeland held Cincy to one run and four hits over seven innings and then tossed six scoreless against Arizona. He's also coming off a quality start against the Giants in which he struck out eight.
Turns out, he draws one of the worst hitting teams this week in Pittsburgh and a mediocre one in Washington. Freeland is truly all-or-nothing in terms of outcomes. He doesn't walk batters or nibble in order to induce a whiff, instead challenging them to make contact. Good teams will take advantage but worse teams will play into his hands.
JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates - 3% rostered
Scheduled Starts: vs COL, @SD
Brubaker draws two Start recommendations this week from our weekly SP Matchups chart. This may come as a surprise considering he sports a 5.50 ERA and plays for the Pirates. Brubaker has looked better lately, racking up 22 K over his past three outings. Granted, those came against the Reds twice and the Cubs but it's still a good sign. His 3.88 SIERA shows that he's been better than his ratios indicate too.
Brubaker has become a sinker-first pitcher who relies on the slider to induce whiffs. It's working fairly well so far, as he has a ridiculous 50.5% Whiff% on the slide piece by getting batters to chase it.
Colorado has been fairly disciplined as a team, striking out just 20.7% of the time and San Diego ranks in the middle of league K rates. Brubaker won't necessarily pile up as many strikeouts as he has recently but his batted-ball luck could also start to reverse. He's one of the higher-upside streamers on the docket this week.
Risky Two-Start Pitcher Streamer Picks
Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals - 47% rostered
Scheduled Starts: vs LAD, vs COL
As much as I've been on the Gray bandwagon this season, I'll temper expectation this week. He has piled up 46 K on the season but hasn't completely solved his walk problem with a 9.9% BB%. It's an improvement over last year as are his ratios across the board. There is risk that the Dodgers team that traded him away last season wreaks havoc on those ratios. Colorado isn't prone to strikeout much either, so it could be a less effective week for Gray.
Cal Quantrill, Cleveland Guardians - 46% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @HOU, @DET
Quantrill has come away with a QS in four of his last five starts. His ERA is a resepctable 3.48 along with a 1.19 WHIP. What he hasn't done is strike batters out. If you thought last year's 19.6% K% would regress positively, it has done the opposite by going down to 15.1%. I feel better about Quantrill not damaging my pitching stats this week compared to Plesac but his lack of K power doesn't make him much more appealing.
Zach Plesac, Cleveland Guardians - 37% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @HOU, @DET
Another case of a pitcher who can be trusted once but not twice. Plesac absolutely should be faded on the road against the Astros, who lead the league in home runs. He's had a hard enough time keeping the ball in the yard, allowing six HR in seven starts. Detroit is dead last in home runs and near the bottom in most offensive categories. He could come away with a quality start in Detroit but the damage done early in the week may outweigh it.
Bruce Zimmermann, Baltimore Orioles - 22% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @NYY, @BOS
Damn Yankees. If not for the Bronx Bombers, Zimmermann would have stellar season-long stats.
Here's the breakdown:
Three starts vs Yankees - 5.02 ERA, 1.53 WHIP
Five starts vs others - 2.66 ERA, 1.00 WHIP
Naturally, he faces them yet again this week and then gets a road matchup with Boston. Not an ideal schedule, especially with the way Trevor Story has caught fire lately. Zimmermann has been a pleasant surprise all season but this isn't the week to trust him.
Adrian Houser, Milwaukee Brewers - 20% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @SD, @STL
So far, Houser has replicated last year's 3.22 ERA and mostly put up the same stats as expected. That is to say, fairly decent but nothing to write home about. Like most streaming candidates, Houser is below the league average in strikeout rate. Nothing else stands out in terms of expected stats either.
That leaves us to examine the matchups where he gets a Padres team that has been winning and scoring a fair amount of runs despite not really hitting too well. The Cardinals lineup looks very different than on Opening Day thanks to a couple of key call-ups in Juan Yepez, Brendan Donovan, and Nolan Gorman. They are now more talented and starting to become a dangerous offense. Houser isn't a risky pitcher on paper but I'd rather avoid if possible.
Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox - 16% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @CHW, vs BAL
Pivetta is getting hit harder than usual this season, allowing a 92.4 MPH average exit velocity that lands in the fifth percentile. His velocity is down across the board, which is one possible explanation. It's also reason for concern and something to consider going forward if he doesn't turn things around.
The White Sox still aren't hitting like an elite offense, averaging fewer than four runs in a recent five-game stint with the Royals. It's still a tough test for Pivetta as he'll square off with Dylan Cease on Tuesday night. The next start is significantly easier when he returns home to face Baltimore.
Drew Smyly, Chicago Cubs - 7% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @CIN, @CWS
Smyly started the season strong but has allowed nine earned runs and 22 hits over his past 14 2/3 innings in May. He isn't going deep in games either, so he'll be very much matchup-dependent for fantasy value. Smyly looks like a must-start when he faces the Reds early in the week. Unfortunately, we're looking for two-start streamers, not just one. He'll get the White Sox later on, which are one of the best hitting squads against left-handers. Proceed with caution.
James Kaprielian, Oakland A's - 7% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @SEA, vs TEX
This former Yankees prospect has struggled to stay healthy and show consistency. He was a viable streamer for a while last season and looked as if a long-awaited breakout might happen but it wasn't meant to be. He hasn't earned a win in four starts this season, posting an uninspiring 4.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Kaprielian has a knack for handing out free passes to batters and hasn't been able to go deep in a game yet.
Seattle is good at taking walks, as it turns out. Playing in Seattle and then at home to face the Rangers helps in terms of park factor for a predominantly fly ball pitcher, though. He isn't likely to get destroyed in either start but there isn't much reason to think he'll be especially effective either.
Tucker Davidson, Atlanta Braves - 1% rostered
Scheduled Starts: vs PHI, vs MIA
Davidson is a prospect who had a cup of coffee in 2020, pitched 20 innings with the big club last year, and now joins a Braves' rotation that has been playing musical chairs with the fifth spot. He'll start with the Phillies, a club that has crushed lefties all year by posting the second-highest HR total and fourth-highest batting average vs LHP. It's unclear whether Bryce Harper will be in action, however, as he's missed five straight games and could be headed to the IL. The Marlins do not hit lefties well, posting the third-lowest team average in that split. Davidson can't fully be trusted but he's barely rostered and could wind up being a decent fill-in for those seeking help.
Stay Away from these Two-Start Pitchers
Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners - 17% rostered
Scheduled Starts: vs OAK, vs HOU
Gonzales bucked the odds by tossing two good road starts against winning teams last week. He lasted six innings and limited damage to both the Blue Jays and Mets, lowering his ERA to 3.08 in the process. His WHIP is still an unacceptable 1.50 and the strikeouts aren't there. He also ranks among the leaders in HR allowed with eight. He should be fine against Oakland, which doesn't go deep often, but starting him against Houston is asking for trouble.
Chris Archer, Minnesota Twins - 5% rostered
Scheduled Starts: vs DET, vs KC
He's still on a fairly strict innings restriction, not having gone over four 1/3 IP this season. That means no chance of a win or QS and limited K appeal. The schedule looks nice but it isn't enough to make him fantasy-relevant.
Zach Davies, Arizona Diamondbacks - 4% rostered
Scheduled Starts: vs KC, vs LAD
Normally an adequate source of ratios without the allure of high strikeout totals, Davies saw his ERA jump quite a bit after getting roughed up by the Dodgers last week. He sits at a 4.35 ERA on the season now. Davies will face that same Dodgers squad late next week but not before a reprieve against the Royals on Monday. That would seem to be a great matchup with Salvador Perez now sidelined on an already-bad offense but not so fast. Jon Anderson's Start/Sit chart gives Davies a rating of 15 in that matchup and then a 10 in the second start. Those are the two lowest scores of the entire week and they belong to the same veteran pitcher. I recommend avoiding as well.
Jordan Lyles, Baltimore Orioles - 4% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @NYY, @BOS
Lyles is among the league leaders in several pitching categories, just all the wrong ones. Only one pitcher has more losses than his four (Chris Flexen - six), only one has allowed more hits than his 50 (Kyle Freeland - 54), and only five pitchers have given up more earned runs. This can be partly attributed to the fact that he's among the leaders in IP, yet he strikes out less than a batter per inning and won't help much in any other respect than eating innings. Like Zimmermann, Lyles faces a tough AL East gauntlet this week and should be ignored.
Joey Wentz, Detroit Tigers - 1% rostered
Scheduled Starts: @MIN, vs CLE
The Tigers pitching staff is cursed - there is no other explanation. Every one of their starters has hit the injured list and now Tarik Skubal might join them after being hit with a comebacker on the leg. That might mean Wentz is forced back into the rotation this week as projected by ESPN.
His first Major League start didn't go swimmingly as he gave up six runs on seven hits to Oakland in just two 2/3 innings. Wentz wasn't lighting it up in the minors either, showing strikeout stuff but inconsistent command. He shouldn't be trusted for the time being.
Joan Adon, Washington Nationals - 1% rostered
Scheduled Starts: vs LAD, vs COL
Let's check in on Adon's rookie season after eight turns in the rotation:
Not good, Bob. He has a 31-23 K-BB rate and a 1-7 record. Needless to say, the schedule doesn't make much of a difference.
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