PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for the Charles Schwab Challenge (Round 1)

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge (Round 1). The PGA Tour season is in full swing, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at Colonial Country Club for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge! Despite being sandwiched between last week's PGA Championship and next week's elevated event at Muirfield Village, we've still got six of the top fifteen players in the world making the trip to Fort Worth to fight for the Plaid Jacket. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, May 25.

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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks

Editor's Note: Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.

Tommy Fleetwood MORE than 15.5 Pars or Better

While he hasn't quite been able to nab that elusive first PGA Tour title, Tommy Fleetwood has put together one of the more consistent stretches of golf on Tour over the last few months. Tommy has finished no worse than 33rd over his last six starts and has gained strokes to the field in all four SG categories in four consecutive events.

This steady, all-around play has resulted in the 2nd best bogey avoidance rating in the field (behind just Scottie Scheffler), and zero over-par rounds on the main Tour since March 12th at Sawgrass.

Fleetwood's combination of reliable ball-striking (7th in SG: T2G), and a world-class short game (4th in SG: ARG), makes him about as safe of a bet as there is when it comes to maintaining a clean card. He covered this total in three of four rounds around a much more difficult Colonial last year. With conditions looking pretty benign in Round 1, I don't see Tommy having any trouble racking up pars (or better), tomorrow morning.

Rickie Fowler MORE than Will Gordon - Birdies or Better Matchup

As I alluded to in my course breakdown, success at Colonial has historically come down to two key factors: iron play and putting. In those two categories, there isn't anyone in this field that has been as consistently prolific as Rickie Fowler.

Rickie is the only one out of 120 players this week to rate out inside the top 25 in SG: APP, Birdie Chances Created, Birdies or Better Percentage, and SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds. Fowler also rates out 7th in my weighted proximity model and has gained nearly a stroke and a half to the field per tournament on bentgrass greens over the course of his career.

Will Gordon, on the other hand, has seen his ball-striking numbers plummet from the positive run he experienced at the end of 2022. Gordon rates outside the top 100 in Birdie Chances Created over his last 24 rounds and has lost strokes on approach in four consecutive starts.

Unlike Cam Smith (who beat Jon Rahm in the BoB matchup we touted last week), Gordon doesn't possess the same upside on the greens to flip a matchup on its head - rating as one of the worst putters in the field from 10-20 feet. Unless the ball-striking turns around for Will in quick order, he faces a very difficult task in keeping up with Rickie tomorrow.

Jordan Spieth LESS than 68.5 Strokes

Given the sterling track record Jordan possesses at Colonial, and the resurgence we've seen from the ball-striking in 2023, you'd think oddsmakers would be showing the Texan a little more respect on this line. Spieth has shot 68 or better in 25 of 40 career rounds at Colonial, and maybe more importantly, he's opened with a round of 67 or better in seven of his ten career starts in Fort Worth.

Despite a nagging wrist injury that caused Spieth to pull out of his hometown event two weeks ago, Jordan showed no signs of wear and tear at last week's PGA Championship at Oak Hill. Jordan rebounded from an opening round 73 to finish T29 on the week, and put together the best driving week of his career in the process (+5.7 SG: OTT).

Now he returns to his most successful venue on the PGA Tour, as one of the hottest iron players in this field (8th in SG: APP; 2nd in Birdie or Better %). Jordan has already come close at two very similar venues earlier in the season (Harbour Town and Innisbrook), and I believe he's primed to make his way into contention once again in the Lone Star State.

Other Recommendations

• Justin Rose MORE than Thomas Detry - Birdies or Better Matchup
• Cameron Davis LESS than 69.5 Strokes
• Sungjae Im MORE than Min Woo Lee - Birdies or Better Matchup

Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX

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