NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/30): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

March 30, 2021

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 30th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Tuesday, March 30th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/30

• • Edmonton Oilers vs. Montreal Canadiens (-135) - 6O
  • New Jersey Devils vs. Boston Bruins (-185) - 5.5U
  • Washington Capitals (-110) vs. New York Rangers (-110) - 6
  • Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-250) - 53.5U
  • Detroit Red Wings vs. Florida Panthers (-225) - 5.5O
  • Carolina Hurricanes (-160) vs. Chicago Blackhawks - 6U
  • Dallas Stars (-120) vs. Nashville Predators (-210) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / $9,200 FD) - While there are plenty of center choices, Connor McDavid still stands head and shoulders above the rest at the position. He has now up to an 11 game point streak and has recorded 63 total points in just 36 games played. McDavid has only registered two assists against Montreal this season but has taken 10 total shots against them injust three games this year.
• Pius Suter, CHI ($4,200 DK/ $4,300) - Suter continues to produce lately as he himself is on a four-game point streak. His price point on both sites is still down despite his recent production and with it being a tougher matchup against the Hurricanes, Suter could be a viable tournament option that could come in lower owned at the position.

Other centers to consider: 

• High Priced- Barkov, Bergeron, Zibanejad, Point, Strome
• Mid-Tier-Larkin, Kuznetsov, Cirelli, Suzuki, 
• Value- Krejci, Johansen, Dickinson, Kotkaniemi, Danault

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Alex Ovechkin, WSH ($8,400 DK / $8,600 FD) - Ovechkin continues to be a strong winger option on any slate and he offers an extremely solid floor for all formats. He has recorded four goals in five games against the Rangers and has recorded a point in eight of his last 10 games played.
• Martin Necas, CAR ($4,700 DK / $5,200 FD) - One player that is really coming into his own has been Martin Necas. Necas has been seeing some ice time on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Nino Niederreiter while also being a contributor on the second power-play unit. Necas has generated seven points over his last three games with his most recent game being a two-goal and two-assist game.

Other wings to consider: 

• High Priced- Pastrnak, Draisaitl, Kane, Panarin, Pavelski, Stamkos, Huberdeau, Gallagher
• Mid-Tier- Kreider, Verhaeghe, Svechnikov, Robertson, Anderson
• Value- Duclair, Killorn, Fabbri, Gurianov, Mantha, Puljujarvi, Tatar, Coleman

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Adam Fox, NYR ($6,500 DK / $5,800 FD) - Fox has been white-hot lately as he has recorded a point in seven straight games and now has 29 points in just 33 games played this year. He ranks third out of all defensemen in total points scored on the year and is tied for third on the entire Rangers squad with 29 points scored. In five games against Washington, Fox has recorded five assists and combined for 15 peripheral stats (nine shots on goal, six blocked shots).
• Ty Smith, NJD ($3,300 DK / $3,600 FD) - Ty Smith isn't the greatest play in the world but if you're looking for a cheaper contrarian play that sees close to 20 minutes of ice time and is featured on the top defensive line pairing while also quarterbacking the top power-play unit, Smith is certainly your guy. He has recorded a point in five of his last seven games played and adds in between three to four peripheral stats per game which gives him a decent floor altogether.

Other defensemen to consider: 

• High Priced- Hamilton, Josi, Hedman, Carlson, Nurse, Barrie, Klingberg
• Mid-Tier- Jones, Grzelcyk, Weegar
• Value- Yandle, Murphy, Pesce, Keith, Boqvist, Orlov

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Sergei Bobrovsky, FLA ($8,400 DK / $7,900 FD) - The Panthers are a heavy favorite on this slate which means Bobrovsky is certainly in play in all formats. Bobrovsky is 13-5-2 on the year with a 2.91 goals allowed average and a .903 save percentage. Bobrovsky has faced Detroit three times this season and has gone 2-1 in those three outings while having a 1.66 goals allowed average and a .942 save percentage while stopping 81 of 86 total shots that he faced.
• Kevin Lankinen, CHI ($7,500 DK / $7,000 FD) - If you're wanting a cheaper and slightly riskier option, Kevin Lankinen could be a goalie that you might want to consider. Lankinen is on home ice against a very balanced Hurricanes offense and in three starts against them, he has gone 1-1-1. Even though he is carrying a 3.60 goals allowed average in those three games against the Canes, Lankinen has stopped 101 of 112 shots that he has seen which means he should see a high shot volume that translates well over on DK.

Other goalies to consider: 

• High Priced- Vasilevskiy
• Mid-Tier- Koskinen, Rinne
• Value- Blackwood

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• NYR 1  
  • Kreider/ Zibanejad/ Buchnevich (Fox, d-men add on) 
    • The top Rangers line has done extremely well over their last 10 games that they have played. Over this stretch, they have scored nine even-strength goals while generating 46 scoring chances and 11 high danger chances in 99 minutes of ice time. Usually, this line tends to match up with the opposing teams' top lines and against Washington, we should expect them to see plenty of ice time against the Ovechkin which tends to be more offensively focused. This should lead to a good-paced matchup and it wouldn't be surprising if this was one of the high-scoring games on the slate.
• FLA 2  
  • Duclair/ Acciari/ Verhaeghe (Yandle, d-men add on) 
    • Despite being down some key offensive threats, Florida is certainly in play on this slate tonight. In just 30 minutes of ice time together, this second line for Florida has done well as they have generated two goals while creating 17 scoring chances and eight high danger opportunities during that 30-minute time span. While they don't fully correlate at all times on the ice, you can mini stack Verhaeghe with Keith Yandle as they are skating together at full strength and are both featured on the Panthers top power-play unit.

Other Stacks to consider: EDM 1, WSH 1, NSH 1, CHI 1, TBL 2, MTL 2, TBL 3 

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Point (1.4X), Pavelski (1.55X), Kuznetsov (1.9X)

W: Panarin(1.2X), Gallagher (1.65X), Huberdeau (1.75X)

D: Hamilton (1.2X), Josi (1.3X), Grzelcyk (1.9X),

G: Vasilevskiy (1.2X), Koskinen (1.35X), Lankinen (2X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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