NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (3/28): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Jorge Pucks delivers his top DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft NHL DFS value plays and research for March 28th including DFS analysis for goalies, power plays, stacks.

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft for Sunday, March 28th, 2020 at 5:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/28

• • Anaheim Ducks vs. St. Louis Blues (-220) - 5.5U
  • New Jersey Devils vs. Boston Bruins (-210) - 5.5U
  • Florida Panthers vs. Dallas Stars (-129) - 5.5U
  • Nashville Predators vs. Chicago Blackhawks (-115) - 6U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Patrice Bergeron, BOS ($7,500 DK / $7,300 FD) -The center position is filled with injuries today so if spending up, one of the only clear options is Patrice Bergeron. Bergeron has notched a goal and an assist against New Jersey so far this season and would be the cash game play to consider if spending up at the position.
• Pius Suter, CHI ($4,500 DK/ $4,000) - Suter is finding his groove with the top Blackhawks line as he has recorded a point in three straight games with all three of those points being a goal. Suter has recorded a goal against Nashville earlier this season and if he continues to see a good amount of ice time with DeBrincat and Kane, his play and stats will only continue to improve.

Other centers to consider: O'Reilly, Schenn, Verhaeghe, Hintz, Granlund, Acciari, Dickinson, Zajac, Kampf

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• David Pastrnak, BOS ($9,100 DK / $8,300 FD) - Pastrnak carries arguably the highest ceiling out of all players on this slate and would be a great one-off piece for your tournament builds and cash game builds should you decide to not full stack the top Boston line. Pasternak is playing above a point per game pace and is one that is always good for several shots on goal with a point or two for the majority of his games played.
• Eeli Tolvanen, NSH ($4,600 DK / $4,500 FD) - Tolvanen has provided quite a spark to this Nashville team and is showing that he is in great form. Over his last four games played, Tolvanen has recorded a point in four straight games while totaling six points in that four-game stretch.

Other wings to consider: Kane, DeBrincat, Perron, Huberdeau, Pavelski, Rakell, Tarasenko, Kubalik, Benn, Robertson, Hoffman, Schwartz, Gurianov, Ritchie, Smith, Grimaldi

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Roman Josi, NSH ($6,700 DK / $6,500 FD) - While Josi had a quiet night against the Blackhawks on Saturday night, don't let the recency bias fool you into not going back to him again tonight. He carries the highest floor at the defenseman position and should still see over 21 minutes of ice time.
• Matt Grzelcyk, BOS ($4,900 DK / $4,200 FD) - There is a lot to like about Grzelcyk's game, and if he continues to skate on the top defensive pairing and the top power-play unit, he remains to be a great value which gets you correlation to the Boston top line. Grzelcyk has scored a point in three of his last four games and will get to face one of the worst penalty-killing teams in the Devils so he could have several opportunities to rack up some points on the power-play.

Other defensemen to consider: Ekblad, Klingberg, Faulk, Heiskanen, Murphy, Dunn, Shattenkirk, Forsling, Fabbro, Smith

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Jaroslav Halak, BOS ($8,200 DK / $7,800 FD) - The Bruins are one of the larger favorites on the slate and with the Devils only scoring 2.4 goals per game, it is hard to not consider Halak in all formats. Halak is 7-4-3 in 14 total starts this year and has a 2.25 goals allowed average and a .915 save percentage and has gone 2-1-1 over his last four starts. Halak has gone 0-1-1 against New Jersey this year as he stopped 52 of 57 shots faced while accumulating a 2.4 goals allowed average and a .912 save percentage against New Jersey this year.
• Jordan Binnington, STL ($8,100 DK / $7,300 FD) - If you were to look at Binningtons last four starts, the first thing that would stick out is his 1-3 record. Now, in those same four starts, he is allowing 2.5 goals per game which is actually pretty solid. This leads us to think that he has not been getting the offensive support needed for him to notch a couple of wins which has hindered his overall performance and numbers. Binnington is 2-1 against Anaheim this year in three starts this year and is carrying a 1.69 goals allowed average and a .933 save percentage so if he gets the start in net, he is one I would go right back to rostering in all formats,

Other goalies to consider: Driedger, Oettinger

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• BOS 1
  • Frederic/ Bergeron/ Pastrnak (Grzelcyk, d-men add on)
    • With it being a small slate, Boston will be a chalky option, especially in tournament builds. It looks like Brad Marchand will be out for this game and in their most recent game, they slid Trent Frederic up to skate alongside Bergeron and Pastrnak. In their most recent game together, this line generated six scoring chances and one high danger opportunity while having a 63.16 corsi for rate. Both Pastrnak and Bergeron are fully correlated on the top line and power play and would make for a strong mini stack, especially with the Devils being one of the worst penalty-killing teams in the league.
• DAL 1 
  • Robertson/ Dickinson/ Pavelski (Klingberg, d-men add on) 
    • Despite allowing a goal to Florida at 5v5, this top line for the Stars had a very solid game from a statistical perspective. In 11 minutes of ice time together against the Panthers, the Stars top line generated a 58.33 corsi for rate while generating seven scoring chances for and five high danger chances. On the season, this line has seen 58 minutes of ice time together and they are sporting a 3.05 expected goals for while generating 32.03 scoring chances for and 17.57 high danger chances for per 60 minutes. Both Robertson and Pavelski skate together on the top line and on the top power-play unit and would make for a great mini stack pairing on this slate.

Other Stacks to consider: BOS 2, NSH 1, CHI 1, FLA 3

SuperDraft NHL DFS Picks

C: Strome (1.4X), Bergeron (1.45X), Kuznetsov (1.9X)

W: Ovechkin (1X), DeBrincat (1.7X), Huberdeau (1.75X)

D: Fox (1.15X), Josi (1.25X), Ekblad (1.65X),

G: Driedger (1.25X), Halak (1.35X), Oettinger (2X)

*Core 4 for SuperDraft are Bolded

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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