NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (5/4): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Tuesday, May 4th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/4

- New York Islanders (-260) vs. Buffalo Sabres - 5.5U
- Boston Bruins (-240) vs. New Jersey Devils - 5.5O
- Pittsburgh Penguins (-165) vs. Philadelphia Flyers - 6.5U
- Chicago Blackhawks vs. Carolina Hurricanes (-240) - 6U
- Edmonton Oilers (-185) vs. Vancouver Canucks - 6U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
New York Islanders	1	22	13	25	13.5
Buffalo	30	1	4	27	17.25
Boston	4	28	18	3	16.25
New Jersey	27	13	11	22	15.25
Pittsburgh	15	16	28	9	14.25
Philadelphia	30	21	17	9	22
Chicago	26	2	15	15	14
Carolina	3	23	23	5	14
Edmonton	9	15	22	21	13.75
Vancouver	24	3	5	26	17.5

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
New York Islanders	24	23
Buffalo	15	5
Boston	12	31
New Jersey	27	1
Pittsburgh	8	30
Philadelphia	18	24
Chicago	10	3
Carolina	1	27
Edmonton	2	18
Vancouver	21	13

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,200 DK / $9,300 FD) - Just continue to ride the hot hand and that hot hand is Connor McDavid. McDavid is averaging 24.9 DK points per game against the Canucks and has five goals in five games heading into his matchup against the Canucks on Monday night.
Jack Hughes, NJD ($4,600 DK/ $4,800 FD) - While the Devils have a tough task ahead against the Bruins, Hughes could be a bright spot for this Devils squad. He has four points in his last five games and has had two multi-point outings in that five-game span. Hughes has registered four assists in six games against Boston this year and has racked up 19 peripheral stats in those six games.

Other centers to consider:

High Priced- Bergeron, Crosby, Aho, Trocheck
Mid-Tier- Krejci, Barzal, Horvat, Carter
Value- Staal, Suter, Dach

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Leon Draisaitl, EDM ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD) - The pricing on Draisaitl has taken a slight dip but it makes it almost even more enticing to roster him. Draisaitl has scored eight points over his last five games and is coming off of a four-assist night against the Flames on Saturday night. Draisaitl has one goal and nine assists in just five games against the Canucks this season and is a fine play in all formats.
Teuvo Teravainen, CAR ($5,000 DK / $5,600 FD) - Teravainen continues to be priced about 1k too cheap on both sites so it makes sense to keep going back to him. He skates on a very strong line with Aho and Svechnikov and draws a good matchup against a Blackhawks team that has struggled defensively in the second half of the season.

Other wings to consider:

High Priced- Pastrnak, Marchand, Kane, Guentzel, Hall, Svechnikov, RNH
Mid-Tier- Necas, McCann, Kubalik, Puljujarvi, Eberle, Smith
Value- Niederreiter, Pearson, Zacha, Farabee, Kapanen, Hagel

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Dougie Hamilton, CAR ($6,900 DK / $6,700 FD) - Hamilton is the preferred spend-up option at the defensive position and is having himself a night on Monday against Chicago as he notched both a goal and an assist. Hamilton has five assists and a goal against Chicago this season and should see over 24 minutes of ice time which gives him an opportunity to rack up peripheral stats in addition to points.
Wyatt Kalynuk, CHI ($3,700 DK / $3,500 FD) - Kalynuk has done well ever since he was called into action and he does a great job of creating a good viable floor as a cheaper defensive option. Kalynuk is averaging three peripheral stats per game as he headed into Monday nights game against the Hurricanes and was on a point hot streak as he has scored a point in four of his last five games.

Other defensemen to consider:

High Priced- Nurse, Provorov
Mid-Tier- Barrie, Letang, Hughes
Value- Edler, Keith, Pulock, Pesce, Skjei

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Ilya Sorokin, NYI ($8,500 DK / $8,200 FD) - Semyon Varlamov got the nod on Monday night against the Sabres which means Ilya Sorokin will be getting the start on Tuesday night against Buffalo. Sorokin has been one of the best backups in the league as he is 12-6-1 on the season with a 2.19 goals allowed average and a .918 save percentage and has gone 3-0 against the Sabres this year. He has stopped 60 out of 64 shots and accumulated a 1.33 goals allowed average in those three starts so if he has another outing like he has previously, he will be one of the top-scoring goalies on the slate,
Mike Smith, EDM ($8,100 DK / $8,000 FD) - Mikko Koskinen is getting the start on Monday night against Vancouver which means Mike Smith will most likely draw the start on Tuesday night for Edmonton. Smith has been great in net for the Oilers as he is 18-6-2 on the season with a 2.30 goals allowed average and a .924 save percentage. Smith has won three of his last five starts and is 2-0 against the Canucks this season where he has stopped 62 out of 65 total shots faced. He is at a solid price point on both sites and is a viable goalie option in all formats.

Other goalies to consider:

High Priced- Swayman, Reimer
Mid-Tier- Jarry
Value-

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

EDM 1
- Draisaitl/ McDavid/ Puljujarvi (Barrie, d-men add on)
  - The Oilers top line is the clear-cut top stacking option on this slate so this would be the first team to consider stacking. In 14 minutes of ice time against the Canucks last night, the McDavid line scored three full line goals and generated 10 scoring chances and two high-danger opportunities. Against Vancouver on the season, this line has a 5.64 expected goals for rate and is generating 46.43 scoring chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. McDavid, Draisaitl, and Barrie all skate on the top power-play unit and should be skating at 5v5 so they make a strong trio to consider stacking if you opt to not do a full line stack including Puljujarvi.
CAR 1
- Svechnikov/ Aho/ Teravainen (Hamilton, d-men add on)
  - The Canes top line had themselves a night against Chicago as they created seven scoring chances and five high-danger opportunities while scoring a full line goal. Sebastian Aho notched a hat trick while Svechnikov and Hamiton both had assists and the Blackhawks could not find an answer defensively to slow this line down. On the season, this line is sporting a 2.78 expected goals for per 60 rate while creating 33.62 scoring chances and 10.62 high danger chances. The Canes have the top power-play unit in the league and Chicago struggles on the penalty kill so getting pieces of their top line and their top power-play unit would be the best ways to go in stacking the Canes.