NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/27): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Tuesday, April 27th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/27

• • New York Islanders vs. Washington Capitals (-120) - 5.5U
  • Philadelphia Flyers (-140) vs. New Jersey Devils - 6U
  • Buffalo Sabres vs. New York Rangers (-300) - 6O
  • Boston Bruins (-110) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-110) - 5.5O
  • Detroit Red Wings vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (-145) - 5.5U
  • Tampa Bay Lightning (-190) vs. Chicago Blackhawks - 6U
  • Florida Panthers (-135) vs. Nashville Predators - 5.5O
  • Carolina Hurricanes (-130) vs. Dallas Stars - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Mika Zibanejad, NYR ($8,100 DK / $8,200 FD) - It's hard to look past Zibanejad at the center position for this slate. He gets a favorable matchup against a Sabres defense that he torched on Sunday night as he netted three goals on seven shots and scored 45 DK points.
• Sam Bennett, FLA ($3,700 DK/ $3,600 FD) - Bennett has been on fire over his last 10 games played as he has scored 11 points over that 10-game span. Bennett is now centering the Panther's second line which gives him several wingers that have massive scoring upside which will only allow him to rack up the assists.

Other centers to consider: 

• High Priced- Barkov, Trocheck, Aho, Point, Barzal
• Mid-Tier- Gourde, Backstrom, Benn, Carter
• Value- Nelson, Suter, Johansen, Wennberg

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Jonathan Huberdeau, FLA ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) - As I am writing this, Jonathan Huberdeau currently has taken one shot on goal through two periods against Nashville. Heading into Monday night's game against the Predators, Huberdeau has scored six goals and recorded four assists in six games against Nashville while taking 21 shots on goal.
• Alexis Lafreniere, NYR ($3,300 DK / $3,800 FD) - Lafreniere could be a nice little value option for your lineups. He has been skating on the top line for several games now and has scored two goals in his last five games played. He is cheap on both sites and would get you exposure to a talent like Zibanejad who is in a fantastic matchup against Buffalo.  He has four assists in seven games against Buffalo so if he can notch an assist and take several shots on goal, he should crush value.

Other wings to consider: 

• High Priced- Panarin, Pastrnak, Buchnevich, DeBrincat
• Mid-Tier- Robertson, Giroux, Bjorkstrand, Vatrano, Eberle, Kubalik, Duclair, Necas
• Value- Laine, Gurianov, Niederreiter, Gusev, Palmieri, Coleman, Kapanen, Zajac, Foegele

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Adam Fox, NYR ($7,100 DK / $6,200 FD) - Fox looks to be a great play in this matchup and is actually a tad underpriced over on FD. Fox is coming off of a three-assist game against Buffalo on Sunday and has recorded six points over his last five games. Fox has major upside against the Sabres as he has one goal and 10 assists in just seven games combining for 22 peripheral stats as well.
• Ryan Ellis, NSH ($4,600 DK / $4,000 FD) - The pricing on Ellis didn't change much and he still remains to be one of the better cash game options night in and night out. He is averaging close to five peripheral stats per game and with him seeing over 22 minutes of ice time per game, he is always a threat to rack up either the shot on goal bonus or blocked shot bonus over on DK.

Other defensemen to consider: 

• High Priced- Josi, Hedman, Carlson, Provorov
• Mid-Tier- Letang, Heiskanen, Sergachev
• Value- McDonagh, Pulock, Ekholm, Lindell, Butcher, Pesce, Ceci

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Igor Shesterkin, NYR ($8,300 DK / $8,200 FD) - Shesterkin is one of the higher-priced goalies on both sites but he is one of the best spots on the entire slate. The Rangers carry one of the highest win totals on the slate and they face a Sabres team that has only won four of their last 10 games played. Shesterkin is 14-11-3 on the season with a 2.47 goals allowed average and a .919 save percentage in 28 starts. Shesterkin has been dominant in five games against Buffalo as he is 4-0-1 and has stopped 124 out of 135 total shots faced.
• Semyon Varlamov, NYI ($7,600 DK / $8,000 FD) - If you're wanting a little bit of salary relief at the goalie position, you could consider looking at Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov is 17-9-4 on the season with a 2.12 goals allowed average and a .926 save percentage, and has recorded back-to-back shutouts against the Capitals this season. He is 2-3-1 against Washington this year but has posted a very good 2.50 goals allowed average in those six starts. He could get a boost should Alex Ovechkin sit out another game and if so, could be a viable option in all formats.

Other goalies to consider: 

• High Priced- Merzlikins
• Mid-Tier- Jarry
• Value- Rinne

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• NYR 1  
  • Lafreniere/ Zibanejad/ Buchnevich (Fox, d-men add on)
    • The top line for the Rangers will be a popular play and for good reason. Zibanejad is coming off of a hat trick performance against Buffalo on Sunday and with no MacKinnon, McDavid, or Matthews on the slate, people will most likely look to Zibanejad as the true pay up option center in cash games. At 5v5 on Sunday, the Zibanejad line registered two goals and had four scoring chances and two high danger opportunities in just eight minutes of ice time. While Zibanejad is the line skater on the top line hat is also on the top power-play unit, he makes for a great cash game one-off or you can choose to mini stack him with Adam Fox since he is the top-line defender that also featured on the top power-play unit as well.
• FLA 2  
  • Huberdeau/ Bennett/ Duclair  
    • Time to go right back to the well with the Florida 2 line against the Preds. They had the best overall numbers on the night as they had a 78.95 corsi for, had eight scoring chances, and three high-danger opportunities. Sam Bennett was able to record a goal while Duclair was able to grab one of the assists and this line saw a heavy dose of the second and fourth lines for Nashville. Over their last five games at full strength, the Bennett line has managed to score five goals in 51 minutes of ice time, generate 34 scoring chances while also create 14 high danger opportunities so they are in extremely good form as a full line stack.

Other Stacks to consider: NYI 1, PIT 1, CBJ 1, CBJ 2, CAR 2, TBL 3

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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