NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/24): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

3 years ago by Jorge Pucks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Saturday, April 24th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/24

- Montreal Canadiens (-110) vs. Calgary Flames (-110) - 5.5U
- Toronto Maple Leafs (-130) vs. Winnipeg Jets - 6U
- Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders (-120) - 5.5U
- Carolina Hurricanes (-125) vs. Florida Panthers - 6U
- Dallas Stars (-200) vs. Detroit Red Wings - 5.5U
- Vegas Golden Knights (-260) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U
- Minnesota Wild (-135) vs. San Jose Sharks - 5.5O
- Ottawa Senators vs. Vancouver Canucks (-140) - 6U
- Arizona Coyotes (-110) vs. Los Angeles Kings (-110) - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Montreal	14	28	18	7	17
Calgary	17	25	8	18	16.75
Toronto	13	23	26	6	18.25
Winnipeg	10	11	24	13	13.25
Washington	18	19	29	26	17.75
New York Islanders	2	25	13	21	20.5
Carolina	4	23	22	5	13
Florida	10	15	23	2	13
Dallas	5	30	16	21	16.5
Detroit	23	7	2	29	16.75
Vegas	1	29	28	4	15.25
Anaheim	25	8	1	30	16.25
Minnesota	8	8	20	28	8
San Jose	27	6	6	10	20.25
Ottawa	31	4	11	8	15.75
Vancouver	20	2	10	18	10.25
Arizona	24	13	8	31	15.75
Los Angeles	19	8	11	15	16.5

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP Rank	Opp PK Rank
Montreal	21	11
Calgary	18	23
Toronto	10	12
Winnipeg	4	27
Washington	2	8
New York Islanders	26	7
Carolina	1	17
Florida	12	4
Dallas	6	26
Detroit	30	17
Vegas	22	19
Anaheim	31	1
Minnesota	23	14
San Jose	27	6
Ottawa	25	23
Vancouver	20	21
Arizona	16	3
Los Angeles	14	20

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Vincent Trocheck, FLA ($7,300 DK / $7,900 FD) - If there is one thing we know, Vincent Trocheck really balls out when playing his former team, the Florida Panthers. Trocheck has six goals and two assists in seven games this season and has recorded 26 shots on goal and six blocked shots.
Josh Norris, OTT ($4,600 DK/ $5,300 FD) - Josh Norris has flown under the radar partly due to being stuck on a bad Sens team but his individual play has really been impressive. He has scored a point in eight out of his last 10 games played and has totaled five goals and six assists in that 10-game span.

Other centers to consider:

High Priced- Matthews, Scheifele, Aho, Hintz, Kopitar, Lindholm
Mid-Tier- Barzal, Hertl, Backlund, Couture, Stephenson
Value- Staal, Nelson, Hartman, Danault, Bennett, Carrick

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Mitch Marner, TOR ($8,200 DK / $8,000 FD) - Marner is a top winger option on this slate and has been very successful against the Jets this season. He has recorded five goals and seven assists in eight games against the Jets while also managing to take 23 shots on goal. Marner is in really good form as he has scored a point in three of his last five games and is averaging four shots on goal per game over that stretch.
Nikita Gusev, FLA ($3,500 DK / $4,300 FD) - Gusev is now skating on the top line with Barkov and Hornqvist so he should immediately get a bump in production. Gusev has managed to record a point in three of his last four games and is seeing over 17 minutes of ice time so if needing to find some value, he is one to consider in all formats.

Other wings to consider:

High Priced- Pacioretty, Connor, Stone, Kane, Pavelski, Hornqvist, Fiala, Robertson
Mid-Tier- Huberdeau, Iafallo, Meier, Svechnikov, Eberle, Necas, Mantha
Value- Duclair, Wheeler, Niederreiter, Brown, Gurianov, Batherson, Kessel, Labanc, Parise, Foligno, Komarov

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

Shea Theodore, VGK ($6,600 DK / $5,400 FD) - Theodore is a prime candidate for your cash game lineups. He has produced 25 peripheral stats over his last five games while also scoring a point in four of those five games. He is seeing an ample amount of ice time which only leads to more opportunities to rack up peripheral stats and points.
Erik Karlsson, SJS ($4,600 DK / $4,000 FD) - Karlsson can be up and down when it comes to rostering him from a fantasy hockey perspective. Karlsson has done well against the Wild this year as he has scored two goals and three assists despite only recording two points over his last five games played. The one guarantee for Karlsson is that he sees a huge amount of ice time so even if he doesn't record a point, the ice time alone will help him hit value through peripheral stats.

Other defensemen to consider:

High Priced- Hamilton, Chychrun, Giordano, Pietrangelo
Mid-Tier- Burns, Klingbergm Doughty, Heiskanen, Muzzin, Morrissey
Value- Pulock, Pionk, Lindell, Pesce, Montour, Suter

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Semyon Varlamov, NYI ($8,000 DK / $8,400 FD) - Alex Ovechkin is listed as day-to-day and if he misses, this is a big bump to the Islanders. Despite a 2-3-1 record against the Capitals this season, Varlamov is sporting a 2.50 goals allowed average and has recorded back-to-back shutouts against Washington. Varlamov has actually been in pretty good form as he has only allowed seven total goals over his last five starts and looks to be a top option on this slate.
Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,500 DK / $8,200 FD) - We are unsure of who will draw the start in net for Vegas tonight but either Fleury or Lehner are viable cash game options. Fleury is 4-1 on the season against Anaheim and is sporting a 1.99 goals allowed average in those five games. He has won four straight starts and has only allowed six goals in those four games which shows what kind of form that he is in. While it might not be ideal to pay up for either Vegas goaltender, they always carry the highest upside for a shutout and the highest upside to get a win.

Other goalies to consider:

High Priced- Talbot, Holtby
Mid-Tier- Markstrom
Value- Quick

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

TOR 1
- Foligno/ Matthews/ Marner (Rielly, d-men add on)
  - The top Toronto line had a very solid outing against Winnipeg on Thursday night as they scored two goals, generated eight scoring chances, and two high-danger opportunities. This was the first game where this line was fully together and if they draw a similar line matchup, they should be able to continue generating chances and opportunities. The pricing on Foligno makes this line a lot easier to fit into your tournament lineups and Matthews and Marner would be a strong mini stack pairing if you do decide to just roster two Maple Leafs.
DAL 1
- Robertson/ Hintz/ Pavelski (Klingberg, d-men add on)
  - The top line for Dallas continues to produce good offensive numbers and in their most recent game against Detroit, they sported a 75% corsi for and generated two high-danger opportunities. On the season, this line is generating a 2.78 expected goals for rate per 60 and is creating 28.37 scoring chances for and 13.62 high danger opportunities per 60 minutes of ice time. All three skaters are fully correlated at even-strength and are also featured on the top power-play line so they look to be one of the more intriguing full line stacks on the slate.