NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings (4/16): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Friday, April 16th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/16

• • New York Islanders (-106) vs. Boston Bruins (-114) - 5.5U
  • San Jose Sharks vs. Minnesota Wild (-195) - 5.5U
  • Los Angeles Kings vs. Colorado Avalanche (-360) - 5.5U
  • Vegas Golden Knights (-235) vs. Anaheim Ducks - 5.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the total column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. If the total is low, that means he is in a good matchup from a fantasy perspective and should be considered for your goalie selection. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage rank. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank (lower the rank the better they are) while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank (the higher the rank, the worse their penalty kill is).

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NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds or needing cornerstones for your tournament builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

• Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($8,900 DK / $9,200 FD) - MacKinnon has been in great form over his last 10 games played. He registered at least one point in all 10 games and totaled 17 points altogether in that stretch. MacKinnon has netted three goals and recorded three assists in just four games against the Kings this season and with them being on home ice, his line will most likely avoid the defensively sound Kopitar line.
• William Karlsson, VGK ($4,900 DK/ $5,300 FD) - With Vegas being the away team in this game, Anaheim will be the one doing the line matching which means the top Vegas line should draw an overall tougher matchup.  Lucky enough for Karlsson, he centers the second Vegas line which means he could see some of the better overall matchups throughout the course of the game. Karlsson has been successful against the Ducks this year as he has scored three goals on 10 shots and while he doesn't carry the highest upside, he has a good enough floor for cash game lineups.

Other centers to consider: 

• High Priced- Bergeron
• Mid-Tier- Hertl, Couture, Kadri
• Value- Stephenson, Hartman, Anderson-Dolan, Backes, Rask

NHL DFS Forward Picks

• Max Pacioretty, VGK ($7,900 DK / $7,800 FD) - While Pacioretty's line could draw the tougher matchups, Pacioretty has one of the better floors due to his overall shot volume. Over his last five games, he is averaging close to four shots per game while also recording two goals and 21 shots on goal in five games against Anaheim this year.
• Kevin Fiala, MIN ($5,500 DK / $5,700 FD) - Fiala has a green light when it comes to shooting the puck and that kind of shot volume upside is perfect for both cash and tournament lineups. Fiala has scored double-digit DK points in seven out of his last 10 games played and has recorded 12 points in that 10 game span.

Other wings to consider: 

• High Priced- Pastrnak, Rantanen, Marchand, Kane, Stone
• Mid-Tier- Marchessault, Meier, Kaprizov, Rakell, Brown, Iafallo
• Value- Kempe, Palmieri, Balcers, Smith, Comtois, Parise

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

• Brent Burns, SJS ($5,900 DK / $6,000 FD) - Over his last five games, Burns has flashed the upside that we have grown accustomed to over the past several years. He has registered four peripheral stats per game and has scored four points over that five-game span and has done well against the Wild as he has netted two goals and recorded two assists while accruing 23 peripheral stats in five games.
• Mike Reilly, BOS ($3,300 DK / $3,900 FD) - The pricing on Reilly is just too good to pass up. He sees plenty of ice time and has now scored a point in four of his last six games played. Reilly carries a solid floor but rostering him gets you exposure to the highly dangerous top Boston power-play line.

Other defensemen to consider: 

• High Priced- Pietrangelo, Theodore
• Mid-Tier- Makar, McAvoy, Doughty. Pulock, Karlsson
• Value- Spurgeon, Brodin, Hague

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

• Robin Lehner, VGK ($8,300 DK / $8,300 FD) - Lehner looks to be in line to get the start on Friday night against Anaheim and he enters this game as a winner of four of his last five starts. Lehner is 9-1-2 on the season with a 2.31 goals allowed average and a .914 save percentage and is a part of the best goaltending tandem in the league as he splits time with Marc-Andre Fleury. Lehner has a win against Anaheim this season and in his lone victory against the Ducks, he stopped 20 out of 22 shots faced.
• Cam Talbot, MIN ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD) - The Sharks have been stumbling as of late as they have lost three straight games and are falling further away from the playoff picture which makes this a viable spot to consider the Wild goaltenders. Cam Talbot could get the start in net and he enters this match as a winner of three of his last five games started. Talbot is 13-6-3 on the year with a 2.43 goals allowed average and a .923 save percentage and has stopped 47 of 51 shots faced against the Sharks this season.

Other goalies to consider: 

• High Priced- Dubnyk
• Mid-Tier- Rask
• Value- Jones

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them in case he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership. Also, make sure that the goalie listed above is starting and if not, make sure to pivot!

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks 

• COL 1  
  • Landeskog/ MacKinnon/ Rantanen (Makar, d-men add on)
    • It is tough to not look at the MacKinnon line, especially when they are playing at home. They are carrying a 3.06 expected goals for rate and are limiting opponents to just an expected goal against rate of 1.5 per 60. They are generating 39.03 scoring chances for and 13.19 high danger chances for per 60 when they are at home and have generated two full line goals against the Kings this year.
• VGK 2  
  • Marchessault/ Karlsson/ Smith  
    • The Golden Knights second line is one of the better statistical lines in all of the NHL. They are sporting a 2.9 expected goals for rate while generating 35.34 scoring chances for and 13.03 high danger chances for per 60 minutes of ice time. They have scored two goals against the Ducks this year and make for a great value-stack so you can spend up for the likes of a Boston 1 or Colorado 1 line.

Other Stacks to consider: BOS 1, VGK 1, SJS 2, MIN 3, ANA 3

Key Abbreviations:

xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time

GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time

SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time

If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!

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