Monday Night Football Matchup Analysis: Cleveland vs Baltimore

December 14, 2020

Fantasy football starts/sits and lineups advice for the Ravens and Browns MNF game in Week 14. Dan Fornek analyzes the matchups with a detailed breakdown.

We are back to a normal schedule in Week 14 after being treated to a Monday night doubleheader and a Tuesday night football game in Week 13. All three of those games lived up to their billing, especially given the surprising upset by the Washington Football Team over the Pittsburgh Steelers during Monday afternoons game. This week’s Monday night tilt features an AFC North rivalry game with playoff implications on the line for both teams.

Cleveland enters this game on a four-game winning streak with their offense clicking. Baker Mayfield has overcome a rut during the middle of the season to lead the passing attack in the last two games. The running back tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt continues to stress defenses, allowing Cleveland to control the clock and take the ball out of the opponent's hands throughout the game. Jarvis Landry (54 receptions for 676 yards and two touchdowns) has paced the passing game with help from Rashard Higgins and occasional big plays from rookie Donovan Peoples-Jones. Cleveland has an average defense, allowing 361.3 yards and 23.7 points per game. Cleveland has generated a +7 turnover differential this season, tied for the fourth-best mark in the NFL this year. Myles Garrett has been downright unstoppable this year, recording 10.5 sacks in just 10 games this season.

On the other side, Baltimore comes in off a must needed win against the Cowboys on Tuesday night football after dropping three straight games to the Patriots, Titans, and Steelers. Baltimore has seemingly gotten through their COVID outbreak and should have a majority of their team’s players back and ready to go this week. Each week is essential for the Ravens as they are currently just outside the playoff picture and in the race for the coveted seventh spot. The Ravens utilize a four-headed attack out of the backfield with Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Mark Ingram to pace the offense. In the passing game, Jackson relies heavily on Mark Andrews and has struggled to find consistency against anyone else. Baltimore is only allowing 337.7 yards and 19.3 points per game on the season.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

• Game time: Monday 12/14 @ 8:15 PM EST
• Game line: Baltimore -2.0
• Over/Under: 47

Must-Starts

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

The regression of Lamar Jackson has been tough to watch in 2020, especially for fantasy players that took him as one of the first quarterbacks off the board in fantasy drafts. Jackson has surpassed 200 passing yards only four times this season and only once twice since Baltimore’s Week 7 bye. Despite that, Jackson does seem to be putting together a bit offensively. Jackson has thrown for 542 yards and five touchdowns with three interceptions in the last three games, but more importantly, he has seemingly decided to utilize his legs in the run game more often to get to his weekly fantasy ceiling. After registering double-digit carries just once in the Ravens’ first six games, Jackson has run the ball at least 11 times in his last five games. In that time he has accrued 323 yards (4.89 yards per carry) and two rushing touchdowns to bolster his rushing numbers.

Cleveland has struggled against opposing quarterbacks throwing the ball this season, surrendering 3,276 passing yards and 25 touchdowns on the year. However, they have been doing a good job not giving up yards on scrambles with 211 rushing yards and one touchdown against them (by quarterbacks) on the year. As a whole, their 19.7 fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks is the eighth-highest total this year. If Denzel Ward is unable to play again, it will be interesting to see if Jackson can keep trending up to keep fantasy gamers advancing through their playoff brackets.

Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)

Nick Chubb has been absurdly efficient as the Browns running back since his return from injury despite sharing time in the backfield with Kareem Hunt. Since his return in Week 10, Chubb is averaging 19 carries for 116 yards (6.11 yards per carry!!!) and nearly a touchdown per game. He has also had a minor role in the passing game, catching four of his five targets for 58 yards. The Browns are utilizing Chubb as their primary back and using Kareem Hunt more as a pass-catching change of pace back through four games.

Baltimore is solid against opposing running backs this year, allowing 15.5 fantasy points per week to the position. They have allowed the second-fewest rushing touchdowns (4) on the season despite being middle of the pack in rushing yards (1,076), receiving yards (444), and receiving touchdowns (3) allowed to RB’s on the season. Chubb is going to get double-digit carries regardless of game script, so he must find a way into your starting lineup to capture his strong upside.

Kareem Hunt (RB, CLE)

It seems like Kareem Hunt is in a groove where he alternates between good and bad games every other week for the Browns. In Weeks 10 and 12, Hunt carried the ball 29 times for 166 yards (5.7 yards per carry) and recorded three catches on six targets for 28 yards against the Texans and Jaguars. In Weeks 11 and 13 against the Eagles and Titans, Hunt only mustered 44 yards on 27 carries (1.6 yards per carry) with a rushing touchdown while adding four receptions on four targets for 34 yards. The return (and strong production) has relegated Hunt to a complementary role since Week 10. So then why is he in the start column?

Hunt is getting consistent work in the Browns’ running attack. He has at least 10 rushing attempts in every game this week and averages just under three targets a game. Just based on his workload, Hunt has top-24 RB upside every week and it is difficult to justify leaving that on the bench unless you have two excellent options ahead of him.

J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)

Like most of the rookie running backs, J.K. Dobbins has seen an uptick in his work as the season moves to the latter part of the year. Dobbins has done pretty well with his opportunities during that window of time. Since Week 8 against Pittsburgh, Dobbins has played in all five games. In that time, he is averaging 11.6 carries, 59.4 yards, 1.6 targets, 1.2 receptions, and 5.8 receiving yards per game. His 5.12 yards per carry mark leads the Baltimore backfield (minus Lamar Jackson) during that span as well, suggesting he is currently the most efficient back the Ravens have. There is some risk starting Dobbins because of the looming threat of Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards (and the fact that Lamar Jackson doesn’t target running backs in the passing game), but he ultimately could have the best game of the three and has been consistently seeing double-digit touches in the run game lately.

Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)

After a slow stretch, Jarvis Landry has grown into the WR1 role for the Cleveland Browns the past two weeks. In his last two games, Landry has caught 16 of 21 targets for 205 yards and two touchdowns as the Browns offense continues to surge. He will get a challenging matchup this weekend (primarily covered by Marlon Humphries), but Landry can win that matchup and have a good week based on volume alone. In their first matchup, Landry was targeted six times, catching five passes for 61 yards. With Odell Beckham Jr. out of the picture, those numbers should all go up.

Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)

Mark Andrews is poised to return from the COVID list and all indications are he will be ready to play Monday despite a thigh injury. Andrews was on a little hot streak in Weeks 10 and 11 against the Patriots and Titans, Andrews caught 12 of 16 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown. Andrews was easily the TE1 during that time, scoring five more points than the next closest tight end. Lamar Jackson has seemingly become a bit more stable as a passer with Andrews out, which can only help him since he operates at the top target in the Baltimore offense. Cleveland has been the second-worst defense against tight end sin fantasy scoring this season, allowing 10.7 points per game this year. They have given up the third-most receptions (69), seventh-most yards (689), and second-most touchdowns (9) to tight ends on the season.

Consider Sitting

Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)

After a brutal stretch of production from Weeks 8 to 11, Baker Mayfield has bounced back by playing possibly the best football of his career. In Weeks 8 through 11, Mayfield completed just 53% of his passes for 458 yards and zero touchdowns or interceptions. In his last two weeks, he has completed 70% of his throws for 592 yards and six touchdowns with zero picks. Yes, those last two games were against soft secondaries (Jacksonville and Tennessee), but Mayfield has struggled in games like that before so this could be a sign of things clicking in a new offense. That being said, it is still difficult to trust him against the Baltimore defense. Baltimore is allowing 17.6 points per week to quarterbacks this year and has given up just 16 touchdowns while generating seven interceptions. In his career (five games), Baker averages a 58% completion percentage and has just eight touchdowns with seven interceptions against Baltimore. There are better options than Baker this week, especially with the fantasy playoffs on the line.

Mark Ingram (RB, BAL)

If you’re still starting Mark Ingram at this point in the fantasy season then I have to commend you for making it this far while also offering condolences for the series of tragedies that have decimated your running back room. Ingram has been relegated to a non-factor in the Baltimore offense with the emergence of J.K. Dobbins and the consistency of Gus Edwards. Ingram has had double-digit carries only twice this season and none since Week 5. He hasn’t broken 60 total yards in a game since Week 2. On the season, Ingram has only eight targets, six receptions, and 50 receiving yards. He is no longer a playable running back.

Rashard Higgins (WR, CLE)

There have been up and down production for Rashard Higgins since he took over the WR2 role in Cleveland after the Odell Beckham Jr. ACL injury. Higgins is averaging 4.4 targets, 2.8 receptions, and 47.4 yards per game in the five games without OBJ. There have been a couple of solid performances (3 receptions for 48 yards against Houston, 4/65/0 against Philadelphia, and a season-high six receptions on nine targets for 95 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee last week) and some bad days (two games for a combined 2 receptions and 29 yards against the Raiders and Jaguars). It is hard to trust Higgins against the third-best defense in fantasy football against wide receivers. Baltimore is allowing just 20.1 fantasy points per game this season to wideouts. Higgins will likely be covered by Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters throughout the game, which makes him an easy avoid this week.

Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)

There was a considerable amount of hype for Austin Hooper entering the Kevin Stefanski offense for the Browns. To this point, that hype has been unfulfilled. In fairness, nobody could have predicted he would get his appendix removed and spend time actively recovering while playing, but here we are. Since returning in Week 10, Hooper has totaled eight receptions on 11 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. Only once has he surpassed two targets in a game and he hasn’t cracked the 50-yard mark since Week 6. The Ravens have been solid against tight ends this year, allowing just 7.6 points per game. Hooper’s small workload and a tough matchup make him worthy of a spot on the bench in Week 14.

Potential Sleepers

Gus Edwards (RB, BAL)

Unfortunately with the Ravens’ backfield, you never know who is going to have the big day. Last week, Gus Edwards had an excellent performance in the closing quarter of a blowout. Edwards carried the ball seven times but racked up 101 yards, by far his best performance of the year. Edwards has had a consistent role for the Ravens this season, registering at least seven carries in nine of 12 games this year. He has a limited role in the passing game (only seven targets all year) and has only scored once since Week 9. If Baltimore can catch Cleveland off guard and stake a big lead, Edwards could be in for a decent workload. He isn’t a top option but could be useful in the direst straits.

Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)

After a midseason lull that had fantasy managers panicking, Marquise Brown has found an acceptable level of fantasy production in recent weeks. It is highly unlikely he can offer an adequate return given his draft position before the season, but many fantasy players will consider it water under the bridge if he can lead them to a fantasy championship. In his last two games, Brown has caught nine of 16 targets for 124 yards and two touchdowns. Brown has excellent speed but has struggled to catch passes from an erratic Lamar Jackson all season. If Denzel Ward plays, it could be a rough game as he knocks off rust or battles through an injury, giving Brown some upside. The Browns have struggled against receivers in general, this season, allowing 2,162 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns on the year. Their 26.6 fantasy points allowed to wide receivers is the sixth-worst mark in the NFL in 2020.

Willie Snead (WR, BAL)

Willie Snead had emerged as the most consistent pass game weapon in the Baltimore offense before COVID knocked him out for a couple of weeks. Snead was in the midst of a stretch where he was averaging 6.3 targets, 4.3 receptions, 57.5 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns from Weeks 8 to 11. Aside from Mark Andrews, Snead has seemingly been the only other pass catcher that Lamar Jackson has been able to target with any consistency. There is some risk playing him off a COVID injured reserve trip, but if you find yourself looking for a wide receiver with a solid floor to solidify a Week 14 win, you could do worse.

More Start/Sit Advice