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Kev Mahserejian gives you his AL and NL MVP betting picks for the 2024 MLB season backed by some data and some strong opinions.
Betting player performance is more volatile than betting team futures. Not only does the player have to live up to expectations, but he must stay healthy for the entire season. The more innings played, the more opportunities to compile stats worthwhile for voters come the end of the season. We also put the human element into play as these picks, outside of player props, are opinionated votes from 30 Baseball Writers' Association of America members. Our units will reflect this volatility.
Our goal today will be to provide you with value bets and players with the upside for winning each specific award if everything goes well. We aim to hit on players with smaller unit bets with longer odds to maximize profit because of the volatility. We will also do our best to avoid some markets like AL MVP and focus on markets with a range of outcomes more open to the field.
With that said, here are my 2024 NL and AL MVP future bets.
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Julio Rodriguez To Win American League MVP
+1200 BetMGM (2 Units)
With Shohei Ohtani banished to the NL, the AL MVP race is ready for a refresh at the top. Julio Rodriguez is the clear top dog of Seattle's offense and one of the best baseball players in the world despite recently turning 23 years old. Through two seasons, he has produced 11.3 fWAR, which ranks seventh in all of the MLB and third in the AL behind Yordan Alvarez and 2022 MVP recipient Aaron Judge.
Here's Julio Rodriguez two hits in the game. pic.twitter.com/qWB5tb6NLo
— Ryan Divish (@RyanDivish) March 5, 2024
Rodriguez had produced at least five fWAR in both of his MLB seasons, paced for over six in each through a full season. In his third season, we could see him take another step forward into an undoubted MVP echelon, which is achievable given his pedigree and production relative to level from minors to the MLB thus far. Rodriguez destroyed competition from High-A to Double-A at 20 years old and skipped Triple-A completely. Two years of extremely similar, All-Star caliber production may just be the tip of the iceberg for Rodriguez.
The Mariners won 88 games with a +99 run differential, but missed out on a playoff berth despite being on the fringes all season. Rodriguez's case with another leap in ability is boosted by a team that could continue to win in 2024 along with the fact, as previously stated, of his presence as the leader of Seattle's offense. Aside from Rodriguez, the pitching rotation in Seattle is what drives the team to victory, but they are less heralded in MVP voting historically as the Cy Young Award covers their end of recognition.
Players with higher MVP odds than Rodriguez include Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, and Corey Seager.
- Seager is beginning the season off of hernia surgery and will not participate in spring training
- Aaron Judge is a past MVP winner while Juan Soto is a perennial vote earner, but they play on the same team now and may cannibalize one another's votes
- Yordan Alvarez paces his fWAR similarly to Aaron Judge at the top of the AL but has consistent injury issues while likely splitting votes between himself, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman
Rodriguez is in a unique position where the next-best Mariner in a given lineup is J.P. Crawford (who is quite good, but not an MVP-caliber player). If the Mariners succeed in 2024 (as expected) and Julio builds on his impressive career start, the AL MVP should be his to wield.
Quality Longshots
- Luis Robert Jr. (+5000) BetMGM
- Byron Buxton (+8000) BetMGM
- Trevor Story (+15000) BetMGM
Fernando Tatis Jr. To Win National League MVP
+1000 BetMGM (3 Units)
Similar to Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr. is the face of his franchise's offense. Yes, Manny Machado is also a Padre, but he does not command close to the same fanfare as Tatis Jr., who is now two seasons removed from a shoulder surgery that caused him to miss all of 2022. Meanwhile, Manny Machado is less than a year removed from elbow tendon surgery, which will delay his return to fielding in 2024.
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits his first home run of #SpringTraining. pic.twitter.com/terJjCHLte
— MLB (@MLB) March 3, 2024
The last time Tatis Jr. played a full, healthy season (2021), he led all of the MLB in fWAR with 7.3 in just 130 games. Bryce Harper won the MVP that season despite a lower fWAR (6.6) in more games (141), which is odd considering neither the Phillies nor Padres made the playoffs that season.
Nevertheless, with Tatis Jr. at full strength and his shoulder dislocations likely behind him, his chances of winning the MVP are as good as anyone's in the NL even with a loaded Dodgers offense possessing three MVP-caliber players alone.
Quality Longshots
- Seiya Suzuki (+15000) BetMGM
- Spencer Strider (+15000) BetMGM
- Jordan Walker (+20000) BetMGM
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