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Not our best day yesterday. One bad inning by Mike Minor led to four runs being scored and prevented us from bagging the under. The Pirates and Cardinals hit the line, so was a wash. And then Chris Paddack failed to get through three innings and missed out on the prop bet. Not the ideal start to a weekend but as always, we'll look to hit back today.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-0.57 U)
- O/U Record: 4-6-1 (-2.49 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-1.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 4-9 (-3.26 U)
- Prop Record: 12-9 (+2.67 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 20-28-1 (-5.07 U)
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL +104, CIN -114
ATL: Ian Anderson | CIN: Luis Castillo
Castillo has been much better over his last five starts, with a 2.43 ERA (29.2 IP). His strikeout rate (K%) has improved in that span too (24.1% K% compared to 19.9% in his first 10 starts) but his walk rate (BB%) has worsened from 8.4% to 11.7% in his last five outings. That's where Castillo might come unstuck today as the Braves have the second-best BB% versus right-handed pitching (RHP) in June at 11.0%. Their wRC+ in June against RHP is +104 which means they've been a better-than-league average offense this month.
Anderson has been good this year with a 5-3 record, 3.33 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (14 starts). His last six starts have been a real mixed bag, with three of them going less than five innings and allowing four runs in each and the other three outings lasted five or more innings, allowing no runs. Drew Smyly held the Reds to one run over six innings last night as the Braves evened the four-game series one-all with a 3-2 victory.
The Reds took the series opener 5-3 on Thursday but that's just their second win from their last eight contests. This will be the Braves ninth game in seven days after having double-headers on Sunday and Monday but they're 6-4 from their last ten games so are grinding through it.
This looks likely to be another tight game, similar to the first two of the series. It might come down to the bullpens, neither of which have been good this year. Given how tight it is, I'm hedging the underdogs with Castillo's BB% being the potential difference-maker if the Braves can find the timely hits to make the most of it.
Pick: Moneyline - Atlanta Braves (+104) 1 Unit
Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: OAK +100, SFG -120
OAK: Frankie Montas | SFG: Alex Wood
This pick is a little easier to analyze. Since the start of the season, The Giants rank third in wRC+ (110) while the Athletics rank fifth (107). In June, the Giants are tied second in wRC+ (125) while the Athletics are fourth (120). Before Friday night's series opener, the Giants had scored 113 runs in June (5.65 runs per game) while the Athletics scored 122 runs (5.81 runs per game). To sum up; both offenses are very good.
Montas has had a pretty up and down season. He comes into this with a 7-7 record from 15 starts (4.79 ERA) and on the back of an outing in which he allowed eight earned runs in 5.2 IP against the Rangers. That was his seventh start of the year allowing three earned runs or more.
Alex Wood had an equally bad start last time out, allowing six earned runs in 3.0 IP against the Phillies. That lifted his season ERA to 4.09. After starting the season with a 1.93 ERA from his first seven starts, Wood has allowed 21 earned runs from his last 24.0 IP, over six starts (7.88 ERA).
The Giants bullpen has been a big strength all season and their 1.91 ERA in June is tied first in MLB. The A's bullpen has a 4.57 ERA in June (18th best) so the home team has the edge in the later innings if they can keep it close enough early.
Although the series opener ended 2-0, the starting pitchers last night have better numbers than tonight's starters. The A's also had to travel from Texas following the conclusion of their series against the Rangers on Thursday and many teams do struggle after a travel day without rest. I expect both offenses to fire in this one and the over/under line seems a little light. Given the proficiencies of the relievers both teams have, we'll take the over for the first part of the game as the starting pitching appears to be the weakness for both teams in this one.
Pick: 1st five inning over/under - over 4 (-115) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Slightly different for this week's prop bets. We'll do a small three-game parlay although feel free to go about it however you prefer. The picks are in order of confidence from most to least.
Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays
McClanahan under 5.5 Ks (+115)
Shane McClanahan is having an impressive debut season with a 4.03 from ten starts. His ten starts have only totaled 44.2 IP as the Rays look to not overwork their young starter. Although he does have a 29.0% K% this year, he's only eclipsed five strikeouts in any start on four occasions due to his limited workload. He's facing an Angels team with a 22.2% K% against LHP in June and 21.3% K% against LHP all season, which is second-best in MLB.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Lamet under 6.5 Ks (-120)
Like the McClanahan pick, this one is as much to do with Dinelson Lamet's workload as anything else. After starting the season on the IL, he has only completed five innings twice, with his last four starts totaling 18.0 IP. He has been very good this year with a 2.81 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 32.0 IP and his last outing against the Reds was the first time he has topped six strikeouts this season. Although Lamet's workload has increased to the point where seven Ks are possible, the Diamondbacks knocked out an in-form Chris Paddack last night. Lamet will likely need to get through five innings to hit the over and even then, he might fall short.
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
Montgomery over 5.5 Ks (-110)
The Red Sox are just half a game back of the Rays in the AL East but despite their powerful offense, they have the second-highest K% against LHP in June (28.0%). Although Jordan Montgomery has a rather modest 24.0% K% on the season, he's recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four starts and four of his last six. That includes his 11 strikeout performance against the White Sox on May 21st. Providing he doesn't get knocked out of the game early, he should be able to hit the over.
Pick: Three-pick parlay (+652) 0.5 Units
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